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Wow, somehow I missed this. Pretty wild accusations from Magnus and Hikaru on this. Hans just had a horrific tournament in his last attempt, which makes this wh

Wow, somehow I missed this. Pretty wild accusations from Magnus and Hikaru on this. Hans just had a horrific tournament in his last attempt, which makes this whole thing pretty interesting. Hans didn't play engine perfect lines when beating Magnus in the Sinquefield Cup, though he obviously played extremely accurately.

lovemenot 4y ago
It turns out that "Clever Hans" was reading subconscious body language cues from Magnus
- pge 4y ago
  background for anyone that didn’t get this joke: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans
textadventure 4y ago
No GM would be stupid enough to cheat playing 100% engine lines, they of all people know which engine lines would look particularly suspicious. All they need to know is to avoid any serious blunders, and play some important moves here and there, and that's enough to get a serious advantage at this level.
squidbeak 4y ago
Ignoring the lines (and any cheat at this level would be canny enough to avoid the top few engine moves), there's something seriously off about Niemann's analysis - shallowness and incoherence covered over with bluster. Even Ramirez seemed disdainful of his reasoning about his position against Firoujia tonight. It's pretty grim for him if he really didn't cheat. He won't be invited to a tournament involving Magnus again.
- searealist 4y ago
  Are you accusing him of cheating today despite the 15 minute delay and heightened security?
  - threatofrain 4y ago
    No, the accusation is that the sum of signals doesn't look good.
    - searealist 4y ago
      It's binary. Either he did cheat today or he did not. If he did not then who cares what his post analysis looks like after drawing the #4 player in the world and being +3 at some point. The only reasonable analysis is to declare him a cheater today or discard the interview. To say that the interview would point to him cheating vs Magnus but not today is nonsense.
      - bluecalm 4y ago
        The event might be binary but our knowledge isn't. You may think he is likely cheating but you're not sure. You won't declare him a cheater but you will be suspicious.
      - ivalm 4y ago
        You can always say 40% cheater, 60% non cheater in this one game, but this updates the priors for future game considerations. At some point the priors will be such that the belief in the risk of cheating (which needs not be more than 50%) will cause the player to not be invited.
        icambron 4y ago
        I don’t think this is right. The idea seems to be that his post-game interview shows he didn’t understand the positions very well despite playing them accurately, so he may have cheated. But a) today there was a huge amount of extra security and specific scrutiny on him, b) he drew despite having a substantial advantage at one point, and c) a bad interview where he fumbled some stuff would be a nothing-burger if it hadn’t come after an accusation. It seems much more likely that this is a swirl of confirmation bias, not sound adjustments to priors. No one seemed to think his play was suspicious before the Magnus tweet and now everyone is reading tea leaves.
- fzliu 4y ago
  Seconded re: Neimann's analysis. Specifically, he stated in a post-game interview that Carlsen had played the same Nimzo-Indian g3 line in a prior tournament, even though that never happened. For the sake of the sport, I hope Neimann didn't cheat, but I doubt we'll ever know for sure.
  - randunel 4y ago
    https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1981206 https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1981206 (a blitz to be compared against https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2372960 https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2372960 from 2 days ago).
    - fzliu 4y ago
      Good catch. I was searching for a game without Nf3, but this is effectively a transposition. One minor point folks aren't mentioning that I think works in Neimann's favor - Carlsen is known for enjoying the Catalan, and the opening in the game was essentially a Nimzo/Catalan hybrid. This fact makes Neimann's supposed pre-game prep a bit more palatable. Everything else (postgame interview, past history, Twitter antics) seems to work against Neimann though. My question is - if Neimann did cheat, how? Doesn't seem like something that can be done easily in an OTB tournament.
      - eru 4y ago
        You could stick the computer in your shoe, like the submission suggests? Or you could swallow a buzzer? The input could come from someone who watches the board from afar?
        whimsicalism 4y ago
        They metal detected & RF frequency detect before the round 4 match.
        FartyMcFarter 4y ago
bo1024 4y ago
It doesn't sound like Magnus has made any accusation, right?
- llimllib 4y ago
  He has done absolutely everything you can do to accuse somebody without actually crossing the line into directly accusing them. His meaning could not really be more obvious. (My bias: I think Hans' analysis is pretty dubious, but if it were anyone other than Magnus I would give these accusations little credence. I think we who are not in the know should be giving Hans more benefit of the doubt than people generally seem to be giving)
- emodendroket 4y ago
  I'd say the video attached to this tweet is rather clearly insinuating some accusation though I haven't been following this saga.
- sgjohnson 4y ago
  Yes, because he's far too professional to do that without ironclad proof. And even if he had ironclad proof, he might still not go public.
  - Cthulhu_ 4y ago
    If he had ironclad proof, he'd hand it over to the arbitration committee / judges; it's not very professional I think to accuse people directly, even with proof.
- dandanua 4y ago
  Withdrawing from the tournament is the loudest accusation you can make without words. I'd rather believe Hans on this https://youtu.be/GSLM1K6O6aU?t=1507 https://youtu.be/GSLM1K6O6aU?t=1507
ManWith2Plans 4y ago
Do you have a source of Magnus accusations? He seems to have withdrawn relatively quietly, perhaps consciously trying to refrain from cheating accusations. Hikaru was less reserved on the other hand. He called Hans's post-game interview analysis sub-2700 level after Hans Neiman badly mis-evaluated several positions.
- andy-eye-candy 4y ago
  His tweet included a video of a famous interview with Jose Mourinho saying “if I speak I am in big trouble”
- Cthulhu_ 4y ago
  Yeah I think he's being very professional instead of just throwing out accusations; let the arbitrators call that. I'm not at all into chess (only through the odd HN post where I get out-nerded left, right and center), but I can imagine it ends up being a very analytical thing, where the experts or analysts can spot whether someone is playing like a human or a computer. And I also think they can't add "noise" (e.g. human mistakes) to it either, that'll either throw the computer off, OR it'll look "uncharacteristic".
  - cool_dude85 4y ago
    Nothing really throws the computer off. It is objectively much better than any human at evaluating any position, not just the types of positions computers get into.
  - TempUserzzz 4y ago
    Not a member of this forum, but wanted to help a bit here. First off, computers are (especially in complex positions) ridiculously stronger than humans, like your average family car can't keep up with a Ferrari. In less complex games (like an endgame with fewer pieces) top-10 players can definitely play 20 perfect moves in a row, in an attacking game that's harder. A player like Niemann is not really expected to reach that level in a game like this. A second point is how much time you spend on each move. If you play a move with big consequences (say sacrificing material, or violating a principle) you would generally think longer. A computer doesn't see it that way and might spot "instantly" that this move wins material 7 moves down the road, where even a World Champion will check his analysis before playing that. So playing too perfect and playing too fast in critical positions are both red flags. In Online chess, they often use this to grade your moves, and flag you if you go over certain thresholds, especially if you have a lower "rating". Hans Niemann did both of this (too fast and too good) and then after the game was not really able to explain his thought process afterwards. None of this is hard evidence, but they are red flags, and if you add that Niemann has been caught before in online chess... that's so many red flags it would make the CCP proud. Hope that helps a bit! So no, there is no very analytical thing, which does mean we need to be a bit careful and leave the option open that Niemann maybe just really liked this move on general grounds, got lucky it worked, and has learned of his previous mistakes. It could definitely happen.
bananamerica 4y ago
I think it is important to notice that Magnus actually didn't make any actual accusation.

lovemenot 4y ago

It turns out that "Clever Hans" was reading subconscious body language cues from Magnus

pge 4y ago
background for anyone that didn’t get this joke: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans

textadventure 4y ago

No GM would be stupid enough to cheat playing 100% engine lines, they of all people know which engine lines would look particularly suspicious. All they need to know is to avoid any serious blunders, and play some important moves here and there, and that's enough to get a serious advantage at this level.

squidbeak 4y ago

Ignoring the lines (and any cheat at this level would be canny enough to avoid the top few engine moves), there's something seriously off about Niemann's analysis - shallowness and incoherence covered over with bluster. Even Ramirez seemed disdainful of his reasoning about his position against Firoujia tonight. It's pretty grim for him if he really didn't cheat. He won't be invited to a tournament involving Magnus again.

searealist 4y ago
Are you accusing him of cheating today despite the 15 minute delay and heightened security?
- threatofrain 4y ago
  No, the accusation is that the sum of signals doesn't look good.
  - searealist 4y ago
    It's binary. Either he did cheat today or he did not. If he did not then who cares what his post analysis looks like after drawing the #4 player in the world and being +3 at some point. The only reasonable analysis is to declare him a cheater today or discard the interview. To say that the interview would point to him cheating vs Magnus but not today is nonsense.
    - bluecalm 4y ago
      The event might be binary but our knowledge isn't. You may think he is likely cheating but you're not sure. You won't declare him a cheater but you will be suspicious.
    - ivalm 4y ago
      You can always say 40% cheater, 60% non cheater in this one game, but this updates the priors for future game considerations. At some point the priors will be such that the belief in the risk of cheating (which needs not be more than 50%) will cause the player to not be invited.
      - icambron 4y ago
        I don’t think this is right. The idea seems to be that his post-game interview shows he didn’t understand the positions very well despite playing them accurately, so he may have cheated. But a) today there was a huge amount of extra security and specific scrutiny on him, b) he drew despite having a substantial advantage at one point, and c) a bad interview where he fumbled some stuff would be a nothing-burger if it hadn’t come after an accusation. It seems much more likely that this is a swirl of confirmation bias, not sound adjustments to priors. No one seemed to think his play was suspicious before the Magnus tweet and now everyone is reading tea leaves.
fzliu 4y ago
Seconded re: Neimann's analysis. Specifically, he stated in a post-game interview that Carlsen had played the same Nimzo-Indian g3 line in a prior tournament, even though that never happened. For the sake of the sport, I hope Neimann didn't cheat, but I doubt we'll ever know for sure.
- randunel 4y ago
  https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1981206 https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1981206 (a blitz to be compared against https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2372960 https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2372960 from 2 days ago).
  - fzliu 4y ago
    Good catch. I was searching for a game without Nf3, but this is effectively a transposition. One minor point folks aren't mentioning that I think works in Neimann's favor - Carlsen is known for enjoying the Catalan, and the opening in the game was essentially a Nimzo/Catalan hybrid. This fact makes Neimann's supposed pre-game prep a bit more palatable. Everything else (postgame interview, past history, Twitter antics) seems to work against Neimann though. My question is - if Neimann did cheat, how? Doesn't seem like something that can be done easily in an OTB tournament.
    - eru 4y ago
      You could stick the computer in your shoe, like the submission suggests? Or you could swallow a buzzer? The input could come from someone who watches the board from afar?
      - whimsicalism 4y ago
        They metal detected & RF frequency detect before the round 4 match.
        FartyMcFarter 4y ago

bo1024 4y ago

It doesn't sound like Magnus has made any accusation, right?

llimllib 4y ago
He has done absolutely everything you can do to accuse somebody without actually crossing the line into directly accusing them. His meaning could not really be more obvious. (My bias: I think Hans' analysis is pretty dubious, but if it were anyone other than Magnus I would give these accusations little credence. I think we who are not in the know should be giving Hans more benefit of the doubt than people generally seem to be giving)
emodendroket 4y ago
I'd say the video attached to this tweet is rather clearly insinuating some accusation though I haven't been following this saga.
sgjohnson 4y ago
Yes, because he's far too professional to do that without ironclad proof. And even if he had ironclad proof, he might still not go public.
- Cthulhu_ 4y ago
  If he had ironclad proof, he'd hand it over to the arbitration committee / judges; it's not very professional I think to accuse people directly, even with proof.
dandanua 4y ago
Withdrawing from the tournament is the loudest accusation you can make without words. I'd rather believe Hans on this https://youtu.be/GSLM1K6O6aU?t=1507 https://youtu.be/GSLM1K6O6aU?t=1507

ManWith2Plans 4y ago

Do you have a source of Magnus accusations? He seems to have withdrawn relatively quietly, perhaps consciously trying to refrain from cheating accusations. Hikaru was less reserved on the other hand. He called Hans's post-game interview analysis sub-2700 level after Hans Neiman badly mis-evaluated several positions.

andy-eye-candy 4y ago
His tweet included a video of a famous interview with Jose Mourinho saying “if I speak I am in big trouble”
Cthulhu_ 4y ago
Yeah I think he's being very professional instead of just throwing out accusations; let the arbitrators call that. I'm not at all into chess (only through the odd HN post where I get out-nerded left, right and center), but I can imagine it ends up being a very analytical thing, where the experts or analysts can spot whether someone is playing like a human or a computer. And I also think they can't add "noise" (e.g. human mistakes) to it either, that'll either throw the computer off, OR it'll look "uncharacteristic".
- cool_dude85 4y ago
  Nothing really throws the computer off. It is objectively much better than any human at evaluating any position, not just the types of positions computers get into.
- TempUserzzz 4y ago
  Not a member of this forum, but wanted to help a bit here. First off, computers are (especially in complex positions) ridiculously stronger than humans, like your average family car can't keep up with a Ferrari. In less complex games (like an endgame with fewer pieces) top-10 players can definitely play 20 perfect moves in a row, in an attacking game that's harder. A player like Niemann is not really expected to reach that level in a game like this. A second point is how much time you spend on each move. If you play a move with big consequences (say sacrificing material, or violating a principle) you would generally think longer. A computer doesn't see it that way and might spot "instantly" that this move wins material 7 moves down the road, where even a World Champion will check his analysis before playing that. So playing too perfect and playing too fast in critical positions are both red flags. In Online chess, they often use this to grade your moves, and flag you if you go over certain thresholds, especially if you have a lower "rating". Hans Niemann did both of this (too fast and too good) and then after the game was not really able to explain his thought process afterwards. None of this is hard evidence, but they are red flags, and if you add that Niemann has been caught before in online chess... that's so many red flags it would make the CCP proud. Hope that helps a bit! So no, there is no very analytical thing, which does mean we need to be a bit careful and leave the option open that Niemann maybe just really liked this move on general grounds, got lucky it worked, and has learned of his previous mistakes. It could definitely happen.

bananamerica 4y ago

I think it is important to notice that Magnus actually didn't make any actual accusation.