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The consequences of global warming used to be a “future” concern. Starting to feel like that was extremely optimistic.

Guid_NewGuid 4y ago
Strong same. While 1 swallow doesn't make a summer the combination of 1/3rd of Pakistan being underwater plus heatwaves in Europe and blackouts in China with all the other stuff does get concerning. Maybe the 'establishment' causing scientists to only disclose the most conservative and defensible estimates misled us as to how fast and severe this thing would be. I caught myself getting frustrated the supermarket was out of instant coffee the other day and realized I'm in no way mentally prepared for what's coming.
- joe_the_user 4y ago
  I think establishment science has talked about increased weather variability as a result of the slowing of the jetstream for a while. No one done a good job in saying "So a one degree increase overall can mean five or ten degrees increase hovering over a given area for weeks and that's devastating and deadly in many places, especially areas that have already pushed their ecology and infrastructure to the edge".
ben_w 4y ago
For me, yes and no at the same time. The average increase is slow, steady, and not too far from what I was expecting… but the geographic variation and the behaviour of the extremes is much stronger than I expected.
- mellavora 4y ago
  > The average increase is slow, steady, I'm not sure about that. This year is a significant uptick from 3 years ago where I live (central Europe). I did notice a slow warming since 2006 (when I moved to my current location), but even 2 years ago there were only a few summer nights where you could comfortably sit outside after dark without a jacket. It has been that warm every single night this summer. If you want to see it on a global scale, look at the oceans. It has been "steady" there, though not slow, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ And most of the heat (90%) has gone into the ocean. Now the oceans are warm, so we will see it on land. I'm expecting rapid acceleration over the next 10 years, not slow, and certainly not steady. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/01/extreme-heat-oceans-passed-point-of-no-return-high-temperatures-wildlife-seas https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/01/extreme-...
  - ben_w 4y ago
    > This year is a significant uptick from 3 years ago where I live Too short a time scale and too localised geographically to count as "average". First time I visited the USA, I spent Christmas in CA, which was several degrees warmer than normal for the season, people were surfing[0]; at the same time, the east coast of the US was several degrees colder than normal for the season, it was snowing[0]. > If you want to see it on a global scale, look at the oceans. It has been "steady" there, though not slow, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ Zettajoules without context is big and scary. But the Earth is an astronomical body and astronomical numbers are always big. 588 joules per square millimetre, sounds even scarier! But that doesn't tell me the depth over which the heat was added. But fortunately I don't need to guess at that, as the temperature is easier to measure directly: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ Using that heating figure and that energy figure, that's like heating a water planet by 0.85 C to a depth of about 370 m. [0] For all I know both these things happen every year at Christmas in the US, but it still felt very bizarre to me as an outsider, and that year did have opposite temperature anomalies on the east and west coasts.
pantalaimon 4y ago
It used to be a „future concern“ in the past, but due to the nature of time moving forward (and humanity not doing anything of significance to addresses the issue) that future is now.

Strong same. While 1 swallow doesn't make a summer the combination of 1/3rd of Pakistan being underwater plus heatwaves in Europe and blackouts in China with all the other stuff does get concerning. Maybe the 'establishment' causing scientists to only disclose the most conservative and defensible estimates misled us as to how fast and severe this thing would be. I caught myself getting frustrated the supermarket was out of instant coffee the other day and realized I'm in no way mentally prepared for what's coming.

joe_the_user 4y ago
I think establishment science has talked about increased weather variability as a result of the slowing of the jetstream for a while. No one done a good job in saying "So a one degree increase overall can mean five or ten degrees increase hovering over a given area for weeks and that's devastating and deadly in many places, especially areas that have already pushed their ecology and infrastructure to the edge".

ben_w 4y ago

For me, yes and no at the same time. The average increase is slow, steady, and not too far from what I was expecting… but the geographic variation and the behaviour of the extremes is much stronger than I expected.

mellavora 4y ago
> The average increase is slow, steady, I'm not sure about that. This year is a significant uptick from 3 years ago where I live (central Europe). I did notice a slow warming since 2006 (when I moved to my current location), but even 2 years ago there were only a few summer nights where you could comfortably sit outside after dark without a jacket. It has been that warm every single night this summer. If you want to see it on a global scale, look at the oceans. It has been "steady" there, though not slow, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ And most of the heat (90%) has gone into the ocean. Now the oceans are warm, so we will see it on land. I'm expecting rapid acceleration over the next 10 years, not slow, and certainly not steady. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/01/extreme-heat-oceans-passed-point-of-no-return-high-temperatures-wildlife-seas https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/01/extreme-...
- ben_w 4y ago
  > This year is a significant uptick from 3 years ago where I live Too short a time scale and too localised geographically to count as "average". First time I visited the USA, I spent Christmas in CA, which was several degrees warmer than normal for the season, people were surfing[0]; at the same time, the east coast of the US was several degrees colder than normal for the season, it was snowing[0]. > If you want to see it on a global scale, look at the oceans. It has been "steady" there, though not slow, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ Zettajoules without context is big and scary. But the Earth is an astronomical body and astronomical numbers are always big. 588 joules per square millimetre, sounds even scarier! But that doesn't tell me the depth over which the heat was added. But fortunately I don't need to guess at that, as the temperature is easier to measure directly: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ Using that heating figure and that energy figure, that's like heating a water planet by 0.85 C to a depth of about 370 m. [0] For all I know both these things happen every year at Christmas in the US, but it still felt very bizarre to me as an outsider, and that year did have opposite temperature anomalies on the east and west coasts.

pantalaimon 4y ago

It used to be a „future concern“ in the past, but due to the nature of time moving forward (and humanity not doing anything of significance to addresses the issue) that future is now.