7 ms·

I'm super excited and bullish for manufacturing and I believe we are on the cusp of a manufacturing revolution. I believe we will get to a point in the next 10

I'm super excited and bullish for manufacturing and I believe we are on the cusp of a manufacturing revolution. I believe we will get to a point in the next 100 years where many of our physical products are created at home, and instead of buying physical products, we will buy designs and "print" things at home. Distribution of physical goods will enjoy the same freedom the music in the 00's and video in the 10's enjoyed, with individuals being able to design and develop products and sell online without the logistics of distribution. Imagine being able to design a fork, spoon, and knife and sell it online for people to print out. Imagine being able to design a cup or a comb and offer it to people to print out. 3D Printers and CNCs are still marketed towards hobbyists and/or industry professionals similar to how computers were marketed in the early 80's. I believe in the next few years we will see the Personal Computer version of home manufacturing and a revolution will ensue.

tsungxu 4y ago
Agreed! I'm also bullish on more localized manufacturing in which we have more control over the function, aesthetic and shape of the end products.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
danielvaughn 4y ago
I’ve been dreaming of this for years. You can already see these economies starting to open up, like the model market for 3D printing.
cjbgkagh 4y ago
I don’t think 3D printers will ever get that ubiquitous. I think more likely modeling tooling will improve to the point that 3D prints can be done by 3rd parties for cheaper and higher quality than you can do yourself and those vendors can post the results to you. Sort of like PCB Way does with electronics. I can imagine all sorts of things I’d like to design and make but unless I make it a full time job the amortized cost of the equipment will never make it worth while. I don’t think 3D printers will come down in price enough to change that.
- magicalhippo 4y ago
  > Sort of like PCB Way does with electronics. PCBWay also[1] has 3D printing (including metals[2]), CNC machining, sheet metal fabrication and injection molding services[1]. [1]: https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/ https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/ [2]: https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/3d-printing/ https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/3d-printing/
  - cjbgkagh 4y ago
    Thanks, I did not know that, that is pretty awesome and it makes total sense for them to do that.
- ThrowawayTestr 4y ago
  It depends on the resolution you're looking for but decent 3D printers are pretty cheap.
- galaxyLogic 4y ago
  Right we don't need new things every day. Therefore we don't need our own 3D printer, we can share that with others. Let's order the "print" from Staples.
scythe 4y ago
I guess my objection is that when I was younger, we owned an actual printer, and now, we don't. They're annoying. I think the more likely outcome is that you take your design to the "print shop" and get it printed. 3D printers likely require a lot of maintenance and calibration. In my field (medical physics), the technology is constantly improving, but the maintenance requirements never go away. High precision requires high effort; high complexity, generally, requires high precision. That goes triple if you want to eat off it. Plus, you probably want a variety of materials — are we going to eat off of a plastic spoon, or melt metal in our houses? Space Kinko's can stock everything from aluminum bronze to Zylon composites.
- thrwn_frthr_awy 4y ago
  Right, we aren't there yet, but that doesn't mean we can't get there. Growing up we had an Adam computer in the 80's but we got rid of it and didn't have anything until years later when we purchased an Apple LC II. That's what we need–an Apple computer for 3D printing/CNC/Laser. The Shaper Origin is a great step forward, but it still requires specific skills, but I do think we will get there.
  - zdragnar 4y ago
    Sure, every home could have its own craft beer brewing kit. The thing is, unless you're enjoying it as a hobby, it's better to just buy it pre-made. You don't need to buy materials to have on hand, or guide the process of making it. And, you don't have to wait for it to be finished. Same goes for any number of other hobbies- silk screen printing t shirts, candle and soap making, etc. Would I want enough printable materials on hand to print a couch at any given time, or would I want to order them, then manually print a couch? Or just order one from a local print shop and have it delivered already made? 99% of people don't want to lose valuable storage space in their home to raw materials if they don't have to.
- usrusr 4y ago
  The copyshop model might work out really well. Perhaps cross-pollinated with the MacDonald's model, ideally not by making the entire site run under e.g. Shapeways flag but less granular: "Mike's materializers" around the corner might have brand A processes x, y and z available, and brand B processes w and x, whereas "Jen's stuffmakers" further north has u through y from B but only y and z from A. The model directories list compatible sites near you with each model.
WJW 4y ago
I wonder about this often. While I agree that additive manufacturing is incredibly exciting and just getting started, I don't expect that it will get as much mass market adoption as you think. Of my last dozen purchases or so, only a few would have been possible to 3d print. Many include microelectronics or precision machined surfaces with a finish that 3d printers would be hard pressed to match. Several need greasing, and only one was made entirely out of the same material. Nobody is printing entire washing machines or motorcycles anytime soon on house-level printers. Music, movies and software had the huge advantage that basically all the effort is in the up-front design and then it can be digitally copied at basically zero cost. A car design or washing machine design on the other hand is only a small part of the total effort required to fabricate it. They require at least a dozen different raw material types, careful assembly, electrical certification, programming the microprocessors, greasing the bearings, etc. Most people will have neither the inclination or the skills to do the required post-processing themselves. Anyone living in an apartment will probably also simply lack the space for big machinery, especially if it sits idle most of the time. Even apart from whether it could be made at all in a consumer-grade printer, some things are just unbeatably cheap with modern mass manufacturing methods. Your example of a cutlery set is one: a modern hydraulic press will stamp hundreds of spoons per minute out of steel plate. That process probably won't improve a lot by transporting the raw steel to your house first and manufacturing it yourself. I think there are massive opportunities for additive manufacturing in industry, where companies would be willing to spend several million on a production grade device and can hire dedicated operators to get the most value out of it. You can already see that happening in the aerospace industry, and it will probably trickle down to almost anything that requires complex shapes in their assembly process. I don't think it will ever move beyond hobbyist in the home scene, the machinery is too expensive, too big and too complex. That said, the type of person who in the 80s would have gotten a lathe for their home workshop could now get a 3d printer instead (or both!).
jeffreyrogers 4y ago
In the past there was a lot more local production. It switched to centralized production because that was cheaper and people valued cheap over custom. I doubt that will change anytime soon. Also a lot of the most useful materials are not amenable to 3d printing and CNC is non-trivial to operate because you have to deal with inventory, setup fixtures, cleanup parts, etc. Most people don't want to deal with the hassle and have other things they'd rather spend their time on. There are definitely a lot of cool things happening in this space, but I just don't see it being the revolutionary change other people do.
- tsungxu 4y ago
  I think the shift to centralized production is not necessarily permanent. Energy generation is decentralizing again. We can make more and more manufacturing feedstocks (metals, H2, CO2, biomolecules) using more modular processes that can also be decentralized.
  - jeffreyrogers 4y ago
    Energy generation isn't really decentralizing in a meaningful way. Sure individuals can have their own solar panels or wind turbines (and for many people this makes sense), but the most efficient renewable projects are big centralized projects that take up a lot of land area. I believe it will always be that way for economy of scale reasons. This also means that large electricity consumers who can position themselves near cheap sources of electricity will have a cost advantage, which again increases the returns to centralized manufacturing.
unsupp0rted 4y ago
Unpopular opinion: I’m disappointed we put so much effort into designing forks, cups, and spoons. Are any of these things better in 2022 than they were in 1922 or in 1722? Let’s pick a standard design for forks and only update it when we get new classes of materials or new manufacturing processes that require or enable a design tweak. We complain about the amount of human ingenuity that gets sunk into ad click rates or tricking people with dark patterns. What about the amount of human ingenuity that goes into redesigning a four-legged wooden kitchen chair that looks like a four-legged wooden kitchen chair, or a stainless steel fork that looks like a stainless steel fork.
- rhapsodic 4y ago
- UweSchmidt 4y ago
  This is true for almost anything, for example bicycle tail lights: https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=bicycle+tail+lights https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Da... There is an immense variety in the 10-20$ range, with very little brand recognition or true transparency on quality or attributes. It is likely that new iterations repeat previous mistakes or regress. What we need is to find a robust, simple, sustainable, long-lasting, repairable optimum that is truly environmental friendly and is produced ethically, and then, as you suggest, focus human ingenuity on something else. This will not happen in the current economic system, but will require some kind of intervention or crisis.
- asah 4y ago
  Actually... My wife just found an amazing set in Thailand that not only look unique and cool, but in fact have important new features. The dinner knives are sharp enough to cut steak. The handles weigh enough that you can satisfied suspend the ends off the table, which means they handle brilliantly. The list goes on...
- Scene_Cast2 4y ago
  By the way, if you're looking for the perfect fork, may I recommend the MSR Alpine tool fork? I bought it out of curiosity about reading an article about how it was designed. Was skeptical at first, but it does have great mouth-feel as well as a couple of other neat quality-of-life things. I use it for daily (non-camping) use btw.
tsimionescu 4y ago
I've never really understood the optimism about 3D printing of consumer goods. What goods exactly are you buying that can conceivably be 3D printed in plastic? Maybe some furniture and lighting fixtures, but that's about it, and that's something that ideally you would only buy a handful of times in your entire lifetime. Perhaps cutlery, plating and things like vases would be the same, but even those are extremely rare purchases. So what are you left with that could possibly justify the cost of a 3D printer capable of printing a bed for you? Doodads and cheap plastic crap is better no consumed at all, rather than printing yourself some thingamajig, and is anyway already so cheap that getting it for free would hardly be an improvement. I do see 3D printing as possibly a major advance for certain hobbies, where being able to create your own small parts for various uses can quickly justify even thousands of dollars of investment. But for someone who doesn't have any construction-like hobbies, I think there is really no reason for this optimism.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- vsareto 4y ago
  I wouldn't look towards your standard home as a test bed for this. I don't need to 3D print cutlery or even most things around the house. You just don't use that much stuff. The economics don't make sense for me to spend a large amount of cash to print household things. Farms, ranches, and other remote businesses definitely have an opportunity for that though, because not only do they need a lot of every day things, they are also far away and sometimes things aren't in stock.
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    Sure, industry use is very exciting, and may well propel some 3D printer manufacturers to very high hills. But the commenter I replied to was specifically talking about 3D printing in the home, so consumer goods, not industrial/business goods.
  - mostlysimilar 4y ago
    Perhaps we will walk to our local corner printing center.

tsungxu 4y ago

Agreed! I'm also bullish on more localized manufacturing in which we have more control over the function, aesthetic and shape of the end products.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

danielvaughn 4y ago

I’ve been dreaming of this for years. You can already see these economies starting to open up, like the model market for 3D printing.

cjbgkagh 4y ago

I don’t think 3D printers will ever get that ubiquitous. I think more likely modeling tooling will improve to the point that 3D prints can be done by 3rd parties for cheaper and higher quality than you can do yourself and those vendors can post the results to you. Sort of like PCB Way does with electronics. I can imagine all sorts of things I’d like to design and make but unless I make it a full time job the amortized cost of the equipment will never make it worth while. I don’t think 3D printers will come down in price enough to change that.

magicalhippo 4y ago
> Sort of like PCB Way does with electronics. PCBWay also[1] has 3D printing (including metals[2]), CNC machining, sheet metal fabrication and injection molding services[1]. [1]: https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/ https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/ [2]: https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/3d-printing/ https://www.pcbway.com/rapid-prototyping/3d-printing/
- cjbgkagh 4y ago
  Thanks, I did not know that, that is pretty awesome and it makes total sense for them to do that.
ThrowawayTestr 4y ago
It depends on the resolution you're looking for but decent 3D printers are pretty cheap.
galaxyLogic 4y ago
Right we don't need new things every day. Therefore we don't need our own 3D printer, we can share that with others. Let's order the "print" from Staples.

scythe 4y ago

I guess my objection is that when I was younger, we owned an actual printer, and now, we don't. They're annoying. I think the more likely outcome is that you take your design to the "print shop" and get it printed. 3D printers likely require a lot of maintenance and calibration. In my field (medical physics), the technology is constantly improving, but the maintenance requirements never go away. High precision requires high effort; high complexity, generally, requires high precision. That goes triple if you want to eat off it. Plus, you probably want a variety of materials — are we going to eat off of a plastic spoon, or melt metal in our houses? Space Kinko's can stock everything from aluminum bronze to Zylon composites.

thrwn_frthr_awy 4y ago
Right, we aren't there yet, but that doesn't mean we can't get there. Growing up we had an Adam computer in the 80's but we got rid of it and didn't have anything until years later when we purchased an Apple LC II. That's what we need–an Apple computer for 3D printing/CNC/Laser. The Shaper Origin is a great step forward, but it still requires specific skills, but I do think we will get there.
- zdragnar 4y ago
  Sure, every home could have its own craft beer brewing kit. The thing is, unless you're enjoying it as a hobby, it's better to just buy it pre-made. You don't need to buy materials to have on hand, or guide the process of making it. And, you don't have to wait for it to be finished. Same goes for any number of other hobbies- silk screen printing t shirts, candle and soap making, etc. Would I want enough printable materials on hand to print a couch at any given time, or would I want to order them, then manually print a couch? Or just order one from a local print shop and have it delivered already made? 99% of people don't want to lose valuable storage space in their home to raw materials if they don't have to.
usrusr 4y ago
The copyshop model might work out really well. Perhaps cross-pollinated with the MacDonald's model, ideally not by making the entire site run under e.g. Shapeways flag but less granular: "Mike's materializers" around the corner might have brand A processes x, y and z available, and brand B processes w and x, whereas "Jen's stuffmakers" further north has u through y from B but only y and z from A. The model directories list compatible sites near you with each model.

WJW 4y ago

I wonder about this often. While I agree that additive manufacturing is incredibly exciting and just getting started, I don't expect that it will get as much mass market adoption as you think. Of my last dozen purchases or so, only a few would have been possible to 3d print. Many include microelectronics or precision machined surfaces with a finish that 3d printers would be hard pressed to match. Several need greasing, and only one was made entirely out of the same material. Nobody is printing entire washing machines or motorcycles anytime soon on house-level printers. Music, movies and software had the huge advantage that basically all the effort is in the up-front design and then it can be digitally copied at basically zero cost. A car design or washing machine design on the other hand is only a small part of the total effort required to fabricate it. They require at least a dozen different raw material types, careful assembly, electrical certification, programming the microprocessors, greasing the bearings, etc. Most people will have neither the inclination or the skills to do the required post-processing themselves. Anyone living in an apartment will probably also simply lack the space for big machinery, especially if it sits idle most of the time. Even apart from whether it could be made at all in a consumer-grade printer, some things are just unbeatably cheap with modern mass manufacturing methods. Your example of a cutlery set is one: a modern hydraulic press will stamp hundreds of spoons per minute out of steel plate. That process probably won't improve a lot by transporting the raw steel to your house first and manufacturing it yourself. I think there are massive opportunities for additive manufacturing in industry, where companies would be willing to spend several million on a production grade device and can hire dedicated operators to get the most value out of it. You can already see that happening in the aerospace industry, and it will probably trickle down to almost anything that requires complex shapes in their assembly process. I don't think it will ever move beyond hobbyist in the home scene, the machinery is too expensive, too big and too complex. That said, the type of person who in the 80s would have gotten a lathe for their home workshop could now get a 3d printer instead (or both!).

jeffreyrogers 4y ago

In the past there was a lot more local production. It switched to centralized production because that was cheaper and people valued cheap over custom. I doubt that will change anytime soon. Also a lot of the most useful materials are not amenable to 3d printing and CNC is non-trivial to operate because you have to deal with inventory, setup fixtures, cleanup parts, etc. Most people don't want to deal with the hassle and have other things they'd rather spend their time on. There are definitely a lot of cool things happening in this space, but I just don't see it being the revolutionary change other people do.

tsungxu 4y ago
I think the shift to centralized production is not necessarily permanent. Energy generation is decentralizing again. We can make more and more manufacturing feedstocks (metals, H2, CO2, biomolecules) using more modular processes that can also be decentralized.
- jeffreyrogers 4y ago
  Energy generation isn't really decentralizing in a meaningful way. Sure individuals can have their own solar panels or wind turbines (and for many people this makes sense), but the most efficient renewable projects are big centralized projects that take up a lot of land area. I believe it will always be that way for economy of scale reasons. This also means that large electricity consumers who can position themselves near cheap sources of electricity will have a cost advantage, which again increases the returns to centralized manufacturing.

unsupp0rted 4y ago

Unpopular opinion: I’m disappointed we put so much effort into designing forks, cups, and spoons. Are any of these things better in 2022 than they were in 1922 or in 1722? Let’s pick a standard design for forks and only update it when we get new classes of materials or new manufacturing processes that require or enable a design tweak. We complain about the amount of human ingenuity that gets sunk into ad click rates or tricking people with dark patterns. What about the amount of human ingenuity that goes into redesigning a four-legged wooden kitchen chair that looks like a four-legged wooden kitchen chair, or a stainless steel fork that looks like a stainless steel fork.

rhapsodic 4y ago
UweSchmidt 4y ago
This is true for almost anything, for example bicycle tail lights: https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=bicycle+tail+lights https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Da... There is an immense variety in the 10-20$ range, with very little brand recognition or true transparency on quality or attributes. It is likely that new iterations repeat previous mistakes or regress. What we need is to find a robust, simple, sustainable, long-lasting, repairable optimum that is truly environmental friendly and is produced ethically, and then, as you suggest, focus human ingenuity on something else. This will not happen in the current economic system, but will require some kind of intervention or crisis.
asah 4y ago
Actually... My wife just found an amazing set in Thailand that not only look unique and cool, but in fact have important new features. The dinner knives are sharp enough to cut steak. The handles weigh enough that you can satisfied suspend the ends off the table, which means they handle brilliantly. The list goes on...
Scene_Cast2 4y ago
By the way, if you're looking for the perfect fork, may I recommend the MSR Alpine tool fork? I bought it out of curiosity about reading an article about how it was designed. Was skeptical at first, but it does have great mouth-feel as well as a couple of other neat quality-of-life things. I use it for daily (non-camping) use btw.

tsimionescu 4y ago

I've never really understood the optimism about 3D printing of consumer goods. What goods exactly are you buying that can conceivably be 3D printed in plastic? Maybe some furniture and lighting fixtures, but that's about it, and that's something that ideally you would only buy a handful of times in your entire lifetime. Perhaps cutlery, plating and things like vases would be the same, but even those are extremely rare purchases. So what are you left with that could possibly justify the cost of a 3D printer capable of printing a bed for you? Doodads and cheap plastic crap is better no consumed at all, rather than printing yourself some thingamajig, and is anyway already so cheap that getting it for free would hardly be an improvement. I do see 3D printing as possibly a major advance for certain hobbies, where being able to create your own small parts for various uses can quickly justify even thousands of dollars of investment. But for someone who doesn't have any construction-like hobbies, I think there is really no reason for this optimism.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
vsareto 4y ago
I wouldn't look towards your standard home as a test bed for this. I don't need to 3D print cutlery or even most things around the house. You just don't use that much stuff. The economics don't make sense for me to spend a large amount of cash to print household things. Farms, ranches, and other remote businesses definitely have an opportunity for that though, because not only do they need a lot of every day things, they are also far away and sometimes things aren't in stock.
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  Sure, industry use is very exciting, and may well propel some 3D printer manufacturers to very high hills. But the commenter I replied to was specifically talking about 3D printing in the home, so consumer goods, not industrial/business goods.
- mostlysimilar 4y ago
  Perhaps we will walk to our local corner printing center.