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Biomanufactured materials are coming
- amd89 4y ago
- jagiammona 4y agoGreat summary tweet thread here: https://twitter.com/tsungxu/status/1565322844418052098 https://twitter.com/tsungxu/status/1565322844418052098
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks for sharing the thread!
- rhl 4y agoIf you enjoy this read, you should also read the author’s earlier masterpiece of a post on the energy and materials transition (~1h40 read) : https://www.tsungxu.com/clean-energy-transition-guide/ https://www.tsungxu.com/clean-energy-transition-guide/
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks for sharing!
- clairity 4y agoa quick skim suggests this guide is largely motivated reasoning rather than being objective, as it immediately jumps to solar, wind, and batteries as its conclusive remedy. that's unrealistically simplistic, despite its length. something as large and complex as our global energy supply will need us pursuing every option simultaneously. and the most immediate thing to tackle is coal (being the most polluting, estimated to kill millions per year), for which nuclear needs to be a significant component (being baseload).
- lossolo 4y agoI think he is over optimistic about future and not taking human factor into consideration (human nature, geopolitics, wars, upcoming big crisis around the world because of climate change effects, huge human migrations etc). What he describes is the best case scenario.
- clairity 4y agoright, it's the most optimistic possible scenario, if all of the assumptions (of which there are a lot) are correct and as you point out, all omissions (of which there are a lot, despite the length) are negligible. there are some citations, but the narrative project a certain future way beyond what the meager research suggests. the article does provide a nice survey of clean tech, but the conclusions should be disregarded.
- tsungxu 4y agoNuclear is very important. It's just not scaling fast enough. I don't see a future where next-gen SMR nor fusion gets to cost parity with renewables quickly or easily. They will have to scale up via beachhead markets adjacent to existing electricity demand sources. Long term, I do think economically viable fusion will supplant renewables, but that's decades away.
- clairity 4y agonuclear is not scaling fast enough because it's been subject to 40 years of negative mediopolitical narrative reinforced by poor market and technical regulation. nuclear easily gets to cost parity with renewables when you consider the needed storage for baseload usage and the more advanced grid control variable generation requires. in the US, had we continued to build nuclear at the rate we were between the 70s and 90s, we'd be at over 50% nuclear for electricity generation, which would have knocked coal completely out of the equation, leaving only nuclear (baseload), gas (variable demand), and renewables (opportunistic generation). over 70 years, fission-based nuclear has caused 99+% fewer human deaths than fossil fuels have. and yes, there's no need to pin any hopes on fusion right now, which is decades away at best.
- carapace 4y agoCheck out "Mistletoe viscin: a hygro- and mechano-responsive cellulose-based adhesive for diverse material applications" https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/1/1/pgac026/6549457 https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/1/1/pgac026/65494... You can make a kind of plastic out of milk: https://plastics.syr.edu/page.php?id=/materials/casein https://plastics.syr.edu/page.php?id=/materials/casein It's biodegradable.
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks, I'll take a look!
- srathreya 4y agoAwesome vision by Tsung here. Excited about the possibilities with new biomaterials
- tsungxu 4y agoThank you!
- lifeisstillgood 4y agoI have been looking for "what do I do now software seems to no longer be able to chnage the world" I might be pessimistic today. But this seems like a new eye opener
- capableweb 4y agoSoftware keeps being able to change the world, you just have to look for it :) Many changes have been for the worse, but there are changes none-the-less.
- tsungxu 4y agoAgreed! It is and will play a big role in current and future innovations in the world of atoms.
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks, that's how I largely felt too. Software is a key part of developing biomaterials too, but deep tech is so much more.
- nikanj 4y agoDall-E et al are going to radically change the world.
- kennyworkman 4y agoif you like software and want to work with companies building biomaterials, check out latch.bio and shoot me an email if you are good at programming - kenny@latch.bio
- TaylorAlexander 4y agoRobotics is a lot of fun! You can pivot from pure software to a software/hardware job. Lots of process automation, or hardware test engineer jobs at robotics and manufacturing companies require basic familiarity with hardware stuff and a focus on software. This can be a good way to pivot away from pure software. A good way to get started is to get a basic arduino kit, blink some LEDs and move some servos, then get a raspberry pi and make a little robot (without the arduino, for variety). Get a 3D printer and do a little CAD. All these skills will become useful once it is time to build a motor test stand for a robotics startup's assembly production line. After every assembly step they need to run a hardware test cycle that checks all the sensors. Pure software engineers don't always know how to handle hardware, but with a little practice you can build up those skills. Once you've taken on one role like this professionally, you can pivot even further to hardware as desired. Good luck!
- kache_ 4y agoThe future is now, things keep on improving, and it isn't even hardware.
- tsungxu 4y agoAgreed. Still very early in the adoption of these materials, and biomaterials in particular
- galangalalgol 4y agoThe graphene too, when it was hard to make the handful of experiments on it were already showing odd electrochemical properties. Now that it is less expensive to obtain, I suspect we'll start bumping into all sorts of strange things. One particularly interesting one was apparent high temp superconduction in the presence of certain classes of hydrocarbons.
- tsungxu 4y agoI've not seen that research or finding. It seems we're super early in the potential of 2D materials, especially as you say, as they come down the cost curve.
- agumonkey 4y agoI've been thinking of this topic for so long but never found where to look. Any other venues to read about this ?
- tsungxu 4y agoNot any blogs that I know of specifically on performance biomaterials. But this podcast with 6 episodes is great: https://open.spotify.com/show/5ldzwDpvUsaaQVVjMLRlLA?si=33fbc14137d54267 https://open.spotify.com/show/5ldzwDpvUsaaQVVjMLRlLA?si=33fb... Also SynBioBeta has some great content as well: https://synbiobeta.com/read/ https://synbiobeta.com/read/
- bradly 4y agoThis part two of a series. Be sure to read https://www.tsungxu.com/materials-paradigm/ https://www.tsungxu.com/materials-paradigm/ as well.
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks for sharing!
- thrwn_frthr_awy 4y agoI'm super excited and bullish for manufacturing and I believe we are on the cusp of a manufacturing revolution. I believe we will get to a point in the next 100 years where many of our physical products are created at home, and instead of buying physical products, we will buy designs and "print" things at home. Distribution of physical goods will enjoy the same freedom the music in the 00's and video in the 10's enjoyed, with individuals being able to design and develop products and sell online without the logistics of distribution. Imagine being able to design a fork, spoon, and knife and sell it online for people to print out. Imagine being able to design a cup or a comb and offer it to people to print out. 3D Printers and CNCs are still marketed towards hobbyists and/or industry professionals similar to how computers were marketed in the early 80's. I believe in the next few years we will see the Personal Computer version of home manufacturing and a revolution will ensue.
- tsungxu 4y agoAgreed! I'm also bullish on more localized manufacturing in which we have more control over the function, aesthetic and shape of the end products.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- danielvaughn 4y agoI’ve been dreaming of this for years. You can already see these economies starting to open up, like the model market for 3D printing.
- cjbgkagh 4y agoI don’t think 3D printers will ever get that ubiquitous. I think more likely modeling tooling will improve to the point that 3D prints can be done by 3rd parties for cheaper and higher quality than you can do yourself and those vendors can post the results to you. Sort of like PCB Way does with electronics. I can imagine all sorts of things I’d like to design and make but unless I make it a full time job the amortized cost of the equipment will never make it worth while. I don’t think 3D printers will come down in price enough to change that.
- vsareto 4y ago>This is a classic example of high value, low volume which often serve as beachheads for nascent technologies. There's a link for "often" that's broken. It's set to https://www.tsungxu.com/performance-biomaterials/biomanufactured%20chemicals/ but leads to a 404.
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks, fixed.
- dougmwne 4y agoThis was all very new to me and quite awesome. Are there any good companies to invest in who are going to be riding the wave of this tech?
- tsungxu 4y agoThanks! Not financial advice but some of the public companies that offer services in the biomanufacturing tech stack. Performance biomaterials companies are not public yet and may take quite a few years to get there.
- mdorazio 4y agoAs someone who invested in Amyris (heavily mentioned in these articles) last year with much the same thinking as the author… be very careful about betting against incumbent tech.
- brooksbp 4y ago> be very careful about betting against incumbent tech Can you elaborate on why you think 'incumbent tech' has anything to do with Amyris stock price? Here's what I see just briefly looking at some numbers and slide decks: Amyris has OK revenue growth and gross margin, but wow do they burn a lot of cash. They took on massive convertible debt back in Nov 2021, are continuing to do M&A, and in most recent earnings report are blaming horrible EBIDTA performance on 'higher freight and logistics and increased SG&A, mostly marketing investments'... 1. Revenue growth 2. Product innovation 3. Management I think a lot of investors make investment decisions based on #2. The product is great. Next-gen technology. Perhaps #1 follows... But even if you get #1 and #2 right, #3 can make or break the valuation of a company. It's not clear that Amyris has a path to profitability and the revenue growth is far from earth-shattering.
- technobabble 4y agoI used to do work with chitosan, synthetic nacre, and keratin-based biomaterials. While they will have their direct uses we will need a cultural shift if they are to substantially replace petroleum-based materials.
- tsungxu 4y agoNice. I've heard a little about chitosan and am aware of keratin but not as a biomaterial. The case the article makes is that functional biomaterials with superior properties have not been made at any scale but that it is on the way.
- justnotworthit 4y agoMycelium insulation batts have been a "hope this is available soon" technology for green home builders for at least 8 years (Chris Magwood's 2014 book had hopes for it). Seems like insulation would be the most low tech and first use for it. Hell, we can't even get wood fiber insulation boards in the USA from more than one company at a time. I certainly materials change, but will I be alive to see it? (til then I'm living like an hippy/hobbit, using plants the old fashion ways).
- sgtnoodle 4y agoThe sci-fi book I'm in the middle of reading regularly mentions a popular residential building technique of planting bioengineered seeds that grow into a permanent structure over the course of a year or so. The chapter I just read described some "homesteaders" training and weaving the growth of the plant over hemispherical balloons.
- tsungxu 4y agoI first heard of seeds growing into structures from Drew Endy at Stanford. Fascinating concept. May take several more generations of biomaterials to get there.
- rapjr9 4y agoBiomanufactured materials have been here for decades. Beer is a biomanufactured material. Quorn is vat grown mycelium. Some drugs are made from modified yeast. Sauerkraut, kefir, yogurt, kimchi. Lots of foods come from animals and plants, often hybridized or genetically modified. Maybe biomanufactured is not the right word to use here. Something like "synthetic biology" would be closer to what the article seems to be about. Ah, they do mention sythetic biology. Funny there is no mention of quorn though.