3 ms·
Well I wasn't making up the AI numbers, the experts who supposedly know something about this gave them. But some follow-up questions: 1. What is a valid techni
by edanm 4y ago
Well I wasn't making up the AI numbers, the experts who supposedly know something about this gave them. But some follow-up questions:
1. What is a valid technique for making long-term predictions?
2. Do you agree that in theory AGI can be built?
3. Given that some people worry that it has the potential to be harmful, do you think it's worth at least trying to think through when it will be built?
- nradov 4y agoThere are no experts on AGI. It's like being an "expert" on unicorns or leprechauns. There are some experts on advanced statistical techniques which are often classified as AI. Those techniques have real practical value in narrow problem domains, but we have no idea whether any of those techniques will ever lead to a true AGI. There are no valid techniques for making long-term predictions in poorly characterized, non-linear systems where we don't know what the goal looks like or how to get there. No, it's not worth trying to think through. Let me know when someone manages to build an AGI roughly equivalent to a lizard or mouse or whatever. If it ever becomes a real thing then we'll have plenty of time to think.