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Someone else posted this a few weeks ago, but it truly blew my mind. Watch a few minutes of this, starting from the given timestamp: https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1C

by jmoak3 4y ago

Someone else posted this a few weeks ago, but it truly blew my mind. Watch a few minutes of this, starting from the given timestamp: https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI?t=1746 https://youtu.be/Wi_nFz1CJSI?t=1746 Europe is in more trouble than I imagined.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
This guy says exactly what (certain) Americans want to hear, so he's very popular. But, like his audience, he's swimming in a ocean of misinformation.
- djbusby 4y ago
  Where can I go for more factual information?
  - npc54321 4y ago
    Of course: CNN, Fox News, New York Times, White House's press secretary (but only when the president is a democrat).
    - Grim-444 4y ago
      It's hilarious that I honestly can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.
      - unethical_ban 4y ago
        The account is a troll.
    - kergonath 4y ago
      The NYT is… not great in its European coverage. Often pushing a narrative along the lines of “look how much it sucks compared to here”. I don’t follow CNN or Fox News, and definitely not the White House’s press releases. If you want decent coverage in English, the BBC and the Guardian are better, though not without blind spots.
      - throwaway0a5e 4y ago
        >Often pushing a narrative along the lines of “look how much it sucks compared to here”. Which seems nonsensical considering their readership is strongly correlated with the subset of Americans who think we should do things like Western Europe. I'm sure they have metrics and have A/B tested it but still, seems weird...
        kergonath 4y ago
        > Which seems nonsensical considering their readership is strongly correlated with the subset of Americans who think we should do things like Western Europe. In a somewhat myopic way. Social security is great, but laïcité is bad. Scandinavians can do nothing bad, but the rest of Europe is a big mess. Free speech (as it is seen in the US) is a fundamental right, but not for those who criticise organised religion (like those European blasphemers). Reports of anything in places like Germany, France, Spain, or Italy is always ambivalent. From my experience this reflects the majority point of view in American liberals.
        unethical_ban 4y ago
        >but not for those who criticise organised religion You think American liberals want to silence critics of organized religion? Have you met a liberal?
      - dougmwne 4y ago
        The NYT has a pretty strong anti-EU bias. I suspect it has a lot to do with American interests and the ownership of the paper. Just about every article about EU affairs has a very negative and skeptical stance. They REALLY hate the EU certification of PDO for food labeling, which in itself I think is a big clue about who’s interests it represents.
- eej71 4y ago
  I'm willing to entertain the idea that I find him engaging because he reinforces a narrative that I'm drawn to. But he comes with reasonable sounding receipts so its hard to see how he overstates his case.
- scottLobster 4y ago
  Every time Peter Zeihan is brought up there's a comment like this, and every time said comment lacks any examples of actual misinformation. Sometimes the occasional mention of one of his past predictions that didn't/hasn't (yet) come true, but no actual examples of misinformation. This lends his argument more credence in my mind, not less.
  - causi 4y ago
    I would feel better about Zeihan's predictions if he ever directly addressed criticism of them. For example, his "China can only do low-end chips, anything you find in a cell phone or a laptop is made in the US" claim he regularly repeats.
    - scottLobster 4y ago
      Yeah, how's Huawai doing again since those sanctions in 2019? https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-vendors-since-4th-quarter-2009/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-sha... Also he's clearly speaking in generalities as a rhetorical device. Obviously China can do "some" high-end chip work, and obviously not all cell phone and laptop chips are made in the US. But he is correct that the high end IP and design work is US-centric, with a decent chunk of manufacturing as Intel maintains US fabs. It's the same as if I said "France doesn't produce oil, all the world's important oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf nations!". That's technically wrong, as France is currently world's 72nd largest oil producer (https://www.worldometers.info/oil/france-oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/france-oil/) and the US/Russia/North Sea/others are a large chunk of global markets. But it is correct in that the world writ large cannot function without middle eastern oil, whereas it can function without French oil. The reason the US doesn't build low-end chips at scale is economics. The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability.
      - causi 4y ago
        The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability. Does it matter though? Sure, China might be three or four years behind the bleeding edge, but does that gap actually make as much of a difference as Zeihan thinks it will? If you replaced all my electronics with an equivalent that was five years older I would be mildly inconvenienced but my life wouldn't change at all. He also ignores some pretty big things. Like I've read all his books and watched probably twenty hours of his talks and not once has he brought up the fact that American Millennials and Gen z-ers are not having children.
- seydor 4y ago
  I agree - his narrative is largely a lullaby about how great america is. He gets somet things very wrong, like e.g. how china cannot produce anything of high quality. But many of his points are well justified, like this energy crisis or the looming pensions/welfare crises in europe. Europeans seem to care less about these than zeihan does. His predictions are not to be taken verbatim (they are linear extrapolations based on demographics trends), but some of them will surely pan out. (Some of them will not, like e.g. how japan was not ruined despite its abysmal demographics).
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    He does get some basic macro facts very right - stuff that gets overlooked in most analysis. It is true that America has no immediate physical threats, that it has vast tracts of incredibly fertile land, that its demographics are healthier than nearly all of the developed world’s, and that its gigantic landmass makes it easier to build out solar and wind power capabilities.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  He has a lot of factual information, and gets a bunch of crazy conclusions out of it that I can't really imagine how he come with. His talks are surely interesting.
capableweb 4y ago
Maybe it's because I'm not American, but having someone talking about how much worse it is in Europe compared to the US while saying things like what I quote below, doesn't really entice me to continue watching the video much further, no matter how much I agree that Europe is fucked at the moment. > (31:36) You guys wanna see what the Chinese and the Europeans are bitching about, 'cause this is so much fun. (all laughing) Europe's already in recession. > We are looking at an energy induced depression that is affecting multiple continents probably already, but not here. This is a good problem. > This gives us a competitive advantage in everything. Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something?
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  It's not kind, but it is a really important point.
- HFguy 4y ago
  "Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something?" No it isn't. I'm American btw. Sorry, some people are jerks.
- kergonath 4y ago
  > Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something? This is consistent with the American stereotype in several places… Though it is not consistent with my experience with American, but then I don’t tend to hang out with loud obnoxious jerks. Empathy is in short supply overall.
- jmoak3 4y ago
  >Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something? The video is from a talk at an Iowan Pork Producer Industry event, not an academic presentation. His audience (the Iowan Pork Industry) was likely very happy to hear this news, given that it is bad for their competitors. >Maybe it's because I'm not American I wouldn't extrapolate Iowan pig farmers to all United States citizens.
petercooper 4y ago
(Aside: His arrow at the start of the clip points to Waterloo, not Marshalltown.) I was thinking about Peter Zeihan as well when I saw this item. I'd be keen to find someone who communicates as well as he does but has opposite conclusions, because he certainly seems to string a lot of real data into interesting narratives. He seems to be the geopolitical answer to Adam Curtis.
dangerwill 4y ago
So I watched basically every bit of video that includes Zeihan and I have never once been able to actually confirm the stats he says. That paired with how convenient it is that as the world is going into turmoil we have an academic-ish person taking a bold pro-american stance I am very wary of trusting/promoting him. If you want to take away that global supply chains are fully breaking down and that demographic trends are going to lead to labour shortages I do think that is pretty unassailable. But he also says that the Chinese navy is only a coastal force and can't power project into the Indian Ocean to protect its trade routes, which is utterly wrong. Or the bit where he says about only ~10% of German electricity comes from wind + solar (while claiming they built out wind + solar to a theoretical 200% of daily capacity, and it's mostly just idle). It's actually 33% which is too wide of a miss for me to trust any numbers he states.
irrational 4y ago
Well, that was a terrifying watch.

by jmoak3 4y ago

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

This guy says exactly what (certain) Americans want to hear, so he's very popular. But, like his audience, he's swimming in a ocean of misinformation.

djbusby 4y ago
Where can I go for more factual information?
- npc54321 4y ago
  Of course: CNN, Fox News, New York Times, White House's press secretary (but only when the president is a democrat).
  - Grim-444 4y ago
    It's hilarious that I honestly can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.
    - unethical_ban 4y ago
      The account is a troll.
  - kergonath 4y ago
    The NYT is… not great in its European coverage. Often pushing a narrative along the lines of “look how much it sucks compared to here”. I don’t follow CNN or Fox News, and definitely not the White House’s press releases. If you want decent coverage in English, the BBC and the Guardian are better, though not without blind spots.
    - throwaway0a5e 4y ago
      >Often pushing a narrative along the lines of “look how much it sucks compared to here”. Which seems nonsensical considering their readership is strongly correlated with the subset of Americans who think we should do things like Western Europe. I'm sure they have metrics and have A/B tested it but still, seems weird...
      - kergonath 4y ago
        > Which seems nonsensical considering their readership is strongly correlated with the subset of Americans who think we should do things like Western Europe. In a somewhat myopic way. Social security is great, but laïcité is bad. Scandinavians can do nothing bad, but the rest of Europe is a big mess. Free speech (as it is seen in the US) is a fundamental right, but not for those who criticise organised religion (like those European blasphemers). Reports of anything in places like Germany, France, Spain, or Italy is always ambivalent. From my experience this reflects the majority point of view in American liberals.
        unethical_ban 4y ago
        >but not for those who criticise organised religion You think American liberals want to silence critics of organized religion? Have you met a liberal?
    - dougmwne 4y ago
      The NYT has a pretty strong anti-EU bias. I suspect it has a lot to do with American interests and the ownership of the paper. Just about every article about EU affairs has a very negative and skeptical stance. They REALLY hate the EU certification of PDO for food labeling, which in itself I think is a big clue about who’s interests it represents.
eej71 4y ago
I'm willing to entertain the idea that I find him engaging because he reinforces a narrative that I'm drawn to. But he comes with reasonable sounding receipts so its hard to see how he overstates his case.
scottLobster 4y ago
Every time Peter Zeihan is brought up there's a comment like this, and every time said comment lacks any examples of actual misinformation. Sometimes the occasional mention of one of his past predictions that didn't/hasn't (yet) come true, but no actual examples of misinformation. This lends his argument more credence in my mind, not less.
- causi 4y ago
  I would feel better about Zeihan's predictions if he ever directly addressed criticism of them. For example, his "China can only do low-end chips, anything you find in a cell phone or a laptop is made in the US" claim he regularly repeats.
  - scottLobster 4y ago
    Yeah, how's Huawai doing again since those sanctions in 2019? https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-vendors-since-4th-quarter-2009/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-sha... Also he's clearly speaking in generalities as a rhetorical device. Obviously China can do "some" high-end chip work, and obviously not all cell phone and laptop chips are made in the US. But he is correct that the high end IP and design work is US-centric, with a decent chunk of manufacturing as Intel maintains US fabs. It's the same as if I said "France doesn't produce oil, all the world's important oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf nations!". That's technically wrong, as France is currently world's 72nd largest oil producer (https://www.worldometers.info/oil/france-oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/france-oil/) and the US/Russia/North Sea/others are a large chunk of global markets. But it is correct in that the world writ large cannot function without middle eastern oil, whereas it can function without French oil. The reason the US doesn't build low-end chips at scale is economics. The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability.
    - causi 4y ago
      The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability. Does it matter though? Sure, China might be three or four years behind the bleeding edge, but does that gap actually make as much of a difference as Zeihan thinks it will? If you replaced all my electronics with an equivalent that was five years older I would be mildly inconvenienced but my life wouldn't change at all. He also ignores some pretty big things. Like I've read all his books and watched probably twenty hours of his talks and not once has he brought up the fact that American Millennials and Gen z-ers are not having children.
seydor 4y ago
I agree - his narrative is largely a lullaby about how great america is. He gets somet things very wrong, like e.g. how china cannot produce anything of high quality. But many of his points are well justified, like this energy crisis or the looming pensions/welfare crises in europe. Europeans seem to care less about these than zeihan does. His predictions are not to be taken verbatim (they are linear extrapolations based on demographics trends), but some of them will surely pan out. (Some of them will not, like e.g. how japan was not ruined despite its abysmal demographics).
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  He does get some basic macro facts very right - stuff that gets overlooked in most analysis. It is true that America has no immediate physical threats, that it has vast tracts of incredibly fertile land, that its demographics are healthier than nearly all of the developed world’s, and that its gigantic landmass makes it easier to build out solar and wind power capabilities.
marcosdumay 4y ago
He has a lot of factual information, and gets a bunch of crazy conclusions out of it that I can't really imagine how he come with. His talks are surely interesting.

capableweb 4y ago

Maybe it's because I'm not American, but having someone talking about how much worse it is in Europe compared to the US while saying things like what I quote below, doesn't really entice me to continue watching the video much further, no matter how much I agree that Europe is fucked at the moment. > (31:36) You guys wanna see what the Chinese and the Europeans are bitching about, 'cause this is so much fun. (all laughing) Europe's already in recession. > We are looking at an energy induced depression that is affecting multiple continents probably already, but not here. This is a good problem. > This gives us a competitive advantage in everything. Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something?

spywaregorilla 4y ago
It's not kind, but it is a really important point.
HFguy 4y ago
"Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something?" No it isn't. I'm American btw. Sorry, some people are jerks.
kergonath 4y ago
> Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something? This is consistent with the American stereotype in several places… Though it is not consistent with my experience with American, but then I don’t tend to hang out with loud obnoxious jerks. Empathy is in short supply overall.
jmoak3 4y ago
>Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something? The video is from a talk at an Iowan Pork Producer Industry event, not an academic presentation. His audience (the Iowan Pork Industry) was likely very happy to hear this news, given that it is bad for their competitors. >Maybe it's because I'm not American I wouldn't extrapolate Iowan pig farmers to all United States citizens.

petercooper 4y ago

(Aside: His arrow at the start of the clip points to Waterloo, not Marshalltown.) I was thinking about Peter Zeihan as well when I saw this item. I'd be keen to find someone who communicates as well as he does but has opposite conclusions, because he certainly seems to string a lot of real data into interesting narratives. He seems to be the geopolitical answer to Adam Curtis.

dangerwill 4y ago

So I watched basically every bit of video that includes Zeihan and I have never once been able to actually confirm the stats he says. That paired with how convenient it is that as the world is going into turmoil we have an academic-ish person taking a bold pro-american stance I am very wary of trusting/promoting him. If you want to take away that global supply chains are fully breaking down and that demographic trends are going to lead to labour shortages I do think that is pretty unassailable. But he also says that the Chinese navy is only a coastal force and can't power project into the Indian Ocean to protect its trade routes, which is utterly wrong. Or the bit where he says about only ~10% of German electricity comes from wind + solar (while claiming they built out wind + solar to a theoretical 200% of daily capacity, and it's mostly just idle). It's actually 33% which is too wide of a miss for me to trust any numbers he states.

irrational 4y ago

Well, that was a terrifying watch.