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There's really no point. If there are any successful economists other than Jim Simons they keep real quiet. As anonporridge points out in a sib comment ( http

There's really no point. If there are any successful economists other than Jim Simons they keep real quiet. As anonporridge points out in a sib comment ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32620572 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32620572 ) economies are too dynamic for a naive economics to work.

amelius 4y ago
There's something to it. But I don't believe the "type 2" dynamics point: if it were the case, then surely there must be some fixed-point you can reach if you take into account that your predictions become public.
- carapace 4y ago
  > there must be some fixed-point you can reach if you take into account that your predictions become public. Yes, in a few different ways I think. You have to make predictions or, equivalently, employ strategies that do not depend on secrecy. E.g. "evolutionarily stable strategy" (ESS). A strategy that does well in the presence of copies of itself (and mutants.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionarily_stable_strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionarily_stable_strategy Any business that does not depend on secrecy could be considered an example. (There's an old hippie business book "Honest Business: A Superior Strategy for Starting and Managing Your Own Business" by Salli Rasberry and Michael Phillips https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Phillips_(consultant) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Phillips_(consultant) "a founder of the Briarpatch Network. As a banker in 1967 he organized Mastercard.") You can e.g. buy a fax machine and encourage other people to get them too. The classic network effect: "the phenomenon by which the value or utility a user derives from a good or service depends on the number of users of compatible products. Network effects are typically positive, resulting in a given user deriving more value from a product as more users join the same network" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

amelius 4y ago

There's something to it. But I don't believe the "type 2" dynamics point: if it were the case, then surely there must be some fixed-point you can reach if you take into account that your predictions become public.

carapace 4y ago
> there must be some fixed-point you can reach if you take into account that your predictions become public. Yes, in a few different ways I think. You have to make predictions or, equivalently, employ strategies that do not depend on secrecy. E.g. "evolutionarily stable strategy" (ESS). A strategy that does well in the presence of copies of itself (and mutants.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionarily_stable_strategy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionarily_stable_strategy Any business that does not depend on secrecy could be considered an example. (There's an old hippie business book "Honest Business: A Superior Strategy for Starting and Managing Your Own Business" by Salli Rasberry and Michael Phillips https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Phillips_(consultant) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Phillips_(consultant) "a founder of the Briarpatch Network. As a banker in 1967 he organized Mastercard.") You can e.g. buy a fax machine and encourage other people to get them too. The classic network effect: "the phenomenon by which the value or utility a user derives from a good or service depends on the number of users of compatible products. Network effects are typically positive, resulting in a given user deriving more value from a product as more users join the same network" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect