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We're not screwed. We're just witnessing the accelerated death of the fossil fuel based power generation industry and it's making renewable power extremely lucr

We're not screwed. We're just witnessing the accelerated death of the fossil fuel based power generation industry and it's making renewable power extremely lucrative. Prices are high because of gas prices. Except it's August and Europe is producing a lot of solar power and a fair bit of wind power. That's why there are no blackouts. There is no power shortage; just a gas shortage. Europe has plenty of reserves to generate power. It's just not going to be cheap to use those reserves. The current crisis is not a capacity crisis but a fuel cost crisis. Anybody who was complacent about renewables is going to be paying the price for that this winter. Anybody who wasn't is going to reap the rewards. High prices for electricity and no production cost for renewables basically means whomever produces using that is making a lot of money right now. More than 5x of what they could reasonably expect normally. Probably closer to 10x. That's great news because that will be invested in even more renewable power. Solar and wind are the closest thing to a perpetuum mobile that you can get right now. Electricity prices are high because all the gas and coal production is being kept at a minimum rate because of the high cost of fuel. Companies still in the business of burning that have to pay such high prices for fuel that it's cheaper for them to shut down operations. Unless they are absolutely needed in which case they'll charge for the fuel cost of course. However, most of Europe is relying on renewables and topping up gas supplies for the winter instead. E.g. Germany hit their 80% reserves target ahead of schedule a few days ago, So, any gas plant that doesn't absolutely have to be on right now has probably been idling for months. No reason to turn those on. The reason France has a tough few quarters ahead is that quite a few of their aging nuclear power plants are down for maintenance right now. They'll be importing power from abroad and probably at high rates. A perfect little storm of overdue maintenance and an international gas/oil market that suddenly shifted. They'll be fine. But it will cost them.

badpun 4y ago
> We're not screwed. Are you sure? Is Europe technically capable of importing enough gas to offset what is no longer coming from Russia? Our abilities to import natural gal from outside UE (LNG terminals and pipelines) have limited throughput - not to mention, someone needs to be willing and able to fill them with gas first.
- Sakos 4y ago
  We're currently importing far more gas than we did before the war. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52758 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52758
  - badpun 4y ago
    This link is only about LNG, i.e. natural gas in its liquid form. I suspect that's why Germany is missing from the chart altogether. In any case, it does not show the whole picture.
    - Sakos 4y ago
      What is missing? Germany doesn't have LNG terminals, so obviously they're not on there. LNG is regasified to export to Germany through European countries that do have LNG terminals. Much of the increased LNG import is going to Germany. I'm not sure where you're expecting natural gas in gaseous state to come from. It's generally transported in LNG form unless there's a pipeline (like between Germany and Russia). There aren't a lot of those connecting Europe to gas producers outside Europe, which is one reason why we're in this mess. LNG imports to Europe are up significantly compared to before the war. The link shows that. I feel like you don't really understand what's happening.
      - badpun 4y ago
        You said "we're currently importing far more gas that we did before the war", but gave a link that only covers gas imports in LNG form, not in gaseous form. So, it doesn't include the Nord Stream, Yamal–Europe and other pipelines.
locallost 4y ago
I agree with all that, but in the short term things are going to be very expensive. As I already wrote, I see it as an opportunity to do what you said - ditch fossil fuels for good. There's no point in doing anything else, like whining. But if you think the landing will be anything other than rough, then we'll have to disagree.
- pydry 4y ago
  Currently the only feasible thing that is going to make enough difference is to buy gas from Russia again. Everything else is something we should have done 5 or even 15 years ago so as to not end up in this position.
  - adventured 4y ago
    Announce a $1 trillion nuclear build-out plan for the EU, to build at least 50-60 new nuclear power plants. Go big, really big, and get started on it soon. Why can't Europe go Manhattan Project / Apollo big for such a critical matter? It's cowardice, a lack of daring, if they choose not to. They have the expertise, they have the financial capability, they are lacking the will (so far). To an extent you can scare markets into providing cheaper prices in a variety of ways. That goes for scaring Russia, which is still living in a fantasy bubble about the context. They do not believe the rest of Europe can or will become independent of their supply.
    - pydry 4y ago
      >Announce a $1 trillion nuclear build-out plan Ready in 10-20 years.
      - jillesvangurp 4y ago
        Yep, too little too late. Nuclear is going to miss this party. By the time any of this would feasibly be ready this crisis will be ancient history. The smart move is to completely ignore nuclear and go straight to renewables. Proven technology that is being deployed orders of magnitude faster and at an orders of magnitude larger scale already.

badpun 4y ago

> We're not screwed. Are you sure? Is Europe technically capable of importing enough gas to offset what is no longer coming from Russia? Our abilities to import natural gal from outside UE (LNG terminals and pipelines) have limited throughput - not to mention, someone needs to be willing and able to fill them with gas first.

Sakos 4y ago
We're currently importing far more gas than we did before the war. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52758 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52758
- badpun 4y ago
  This link is only about LNG, i.e. natural gas in its liquid form. I suspect that's why Germany is missing from the chart altogether. In any case, it does not show the whole picture.
  - Sakos 4y ago
    What is missing? Germany doesn't have LNG terminals, so obviously they're not on there. LNG is regasified to export to Germany through European countries that do have LNG terminals. Much of the increased LNG import is going to Germany. I'm not sure where you're expecting natural gas in gaseous state to come from. It's generally transported in LNG form unless there's a pipeline (like between Germany and Russia). There aren't a lot of those connecting Europe to gas producers outside Europe, which is one reason why we're in this mess. LNG imports to Europe are up significantly compared to before the war. The link shows that. I feel like you don't really understand what's happening.
    - badpun 4y ago
      You said "we're currently importing far more gas that we did before the war", but gave a link that only covers gas imports in LNG form, not in gaseous form. So, it doesn't include the Nord Stream, Yamal–Europe and other pipelines.

locallost 4y ago

I agree with all that, but in the short term things are going to be very expensive. As I already wrote, I see it as an opportunity to do what you said - ditch fossil fuels for good. There's no point in doing anything else, like whining. But if you think the landing will be anything other than rough, then we'll have to disagree.

pydry 4y ago
Currently the only feasible thing that is going to make enough difference is to buy gas from Russia again. Everything else is something we should have done 5 or even 15 years ago so as to not end up in this position.
- adventured 4y ago
  Announce a $1 trillion nuclear build-out plan for the EU, to build at least 50-60 new nuclear power plants. Go big, really big, and get started on it soon. Why can't Europe go Manhattan Project / Apollo big for such a critical matter? It's cowardice, a lack of daring, if they choose not to. They have the expertise, they have the financial capability, they are lacking the will (so far). To an extent you can scare markets into providing cheaper prices in a variety of ways. That goes for scaring Russia, which is still living in a fantasy bubble about the context. They do not believe the rest of Europe can or will become independent of their supply.
  - pydry 4y ago
    >Announce a $1 trillion nuclear build-out plan Ready in 10-20 years.
    - jillesvangurp 4y ago
      Yep, too little too late. Nuclear is going to miss this party. By the time any of this would feasibly be ready this crisis will be ancient history. The smart move is to completely ignore nuclear and go straight to renewables. Proven technology that is being deployed orders of magnitude faster and at an orders of magnitude larger scale already.