4 ms·

Road to war: US struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion

34 points by ethbr0 4y ago

anonygler 4y ago
I’m still stunned at how deeply we’ve compromised Russian intelligence. Not only in calling the invasion, but we’ve helped plan devastating Ukrainian counter offensives.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  The US tends to be pretty good at surveillance in permissive environments. And as part of an invasion, you're moving a lot of logistically-heavy materiel near international borders. And stockpiling it in quantities that look different than exercises. It would have been somewhat surprising if we hadn't noticed, between the E-8 & RQ-4 flights. What was most fascinating to me about the article was how little effort Russia put into their diplomatic masquerade. With a few more key meetings or different messaging, they could have achieved a more successful military outcome. But I guess that failure speaks to how much of an echo chamber the leadership circles have become. Aka "We believe this, so why wouldn't everyone else?"
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  There may just be some Russian patriots within their intelligence network who felt the invasion was a bad move for Russia and hoped alerting the US in advance would avert it. Similar happened in the German military before WW2.
0xy 4y ago
The US' response has been incompetent. They're shipping billions of dollars in weapons to a country that every single media outlet admitted was constricted by systemic corruption mere years ago, and less than 30% of the weapons make it to the front lines. You read that right. 70% of the US' weapons aid to Ukraine mysteriously disappears ($16,100,000,000 so far!). It's likely being sold by corrupt officials or stolen by European criminal gangs. All of that military-grade hardware is going to be used to fuel European cartel and gang violence, because that's where it's going. All further weapon aid to Ukraine should be considered another Operation Fast and Furious, but this time instead of arming cartels in Mexico, the US Government is arming cartels and gangs in Europe. Yet another foreign policy disaster, after swinging out of Afghanistan with nothing to show for it. That's aside from the fact the US likely egged Russia on to invade in the first place, after all their invasion came weeks after Kamala Harris was on a sabre-rattling tour of Europe (she advocated Ukraine join NATO, a red line for Russia). With friends like the US, why does Europe even need enemies?
- bawolff 4y ago
  70% of weapond being diverted is a pretty bold claim. Can you back that up with a source?
  - 0xy 4y ago
    The source is a European NGO on the ground, who claims 30-40% arrives to the front, and reported by US media. [1] The US had absolutely zero tracking for weapons they were sending. It's just a free-for-all for corrupt officials, of which Ukraine has many (2nd most corrupt in Europe [2] [3] [4]). [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-fr... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20181107104015/https://fraudsurveys.ey.com/ey-global-fraud-survey-2018/detailed-results/ https://web.archive.org/web/20181107104015/https://fraudsurv... [3] https://www.newsweek.com/corruption-stalling-ukraine-optimistic-revolution-425477 https://www.newsweek.com/corruption-stalling-ukraine-optimis... [4] http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/91317/ http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/91317/
    - tobltobs 4y ago
      Your first link only says that at the beginning it was only 30%, which isn't a too big surprise considering the chaos at this time and it is talking about non lethal weapons only anyway. "Jonas Ohman is founder and CEO of Blue-Yellow, a Lithuania-based organization that has been meeting with and supplying frontline units with non-lethal military aid in Ukraine since the start of the conflict with Russia-backed separatists in 2014. Back in April, he estimated that just "30-40%" of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. But he says the situation has significantly improved since then and a much larger quantity now gets where it's supposed to go."
      - 0xy 4y ago
        That statement doesn't say he's referring to non-lethal weapons, nor does the article say that. Additionally, the bulk of the weapons were sent prior to the "improvements". So, where's the $16,000,000,000 in weapons that vanished? Do you even know how many weapons that is? Operation Fast and Furious was only 2,000 firearms. This is a far bigger deal. The US' Brigadier General arrived in August for auditing - this month! So everything was just getting stolen before now? Pentagon officials have no faith that the US is keeping tabs on the weapons, from another US source. [1] It's a bit laughable anyone could defend Ukraine politicians, given all the graft. Most recently, the wife of a former politician tried to flee with $28m in cash in suitcases. Totally legit I'm sure. [2] [1] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-ukraine-aid-oversight-00036463 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-u... [2] https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wife-of-former-ukrainian-politician-caught-with-28m-in-cash-at-hungarian-border-reports https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wife-of-former-ukrainian...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

34 points by ethbr0 4y ago

I’m still stunned at how deeply we’ve compromised Russian intelligence. Not only in calling the invasion, but we’ve helped plan devastating Ukrainian counter offensives.

ethbr0 4y ago
The US tends to be pretty good at surveillance in permissive environments. And as part of an invasion, you're moving a lot of logistically-heavy materiel near international borders. And stockpiling it in quantities that look different than exercises. It would have been somewhat surprising if we hadn't noticed, between the E-8 & RQ-4 flights. What was most fascinating to me about the article was how little effort Russia put into their diplomatic masquerade. With a few more key meetings or different messaging, they could have achieved a more successful military outcome. But I guess that failure speaks to how much of an echo chamber the leadership circles have become. Aka "We believe this, so why wouldn't everyone else?"
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
There may just be some Russian patriots within their intelligence network who felt the invasion was a bad move for Russia and hoped alerting the US in advance would avert it. Similar happened in the German military before WW2.

0xy 4y ago

The US' response has been incompetent. They're shipping billions of dollars in weapons to a country that every single media outlet admitted was constricted by systemic corruption mere years ago, and less than 30% of the weapons make it to the front lines. You read that right. 70% of the US' weapons aid to Ukraine mysteriously disappears ($16,100,000,000 so far!). It's likely being sold by corrupt officials or stolen by European criminal gangs. All of that military-grade hardware is going to be used to fuel European cartel and gang violence, because that's where it's going. All further weapon aid to Ukraine should be considered another Operation Fast and Furious, but this time instead of arming cartels in Mexico, the US Government is arming cartels and gangs in Europe. Yet another foreign policy disaster, after swinging out of Afghanistan with nothing to show for it. That's aside from the fact the US likely egged Russia on to invade in the first place, after all their invasion came weeks after Kamala Harris was on a sabre-rattling tour of Europe (she advocated Ukraine join NATO, a red line for Russia). With friends like the US, why does Europe even need enemies?

bawolff 4y ago
70% of weapond being diverted is a pretty bold claim. Can you back that up with a source?
- 0xy 4y ago
  The source is a European NGO on the ground, who claims 30-40% arrives to the front, and reported by US media. [1] The US had absolutely zero tracking for weapons they were sending. It's just a free-for-all for corrupt officials, of which Ukraine has many (2nd most corrupt in Europe [2] [3] [4]). [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-fr... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20181107104015/https://fraudsurveys.ey.com/ey-global-fraud-survey-2018/detailed-results/ https://web.archive.org/web/20181107104015/https://fraudsurv... [3] https://www.newsweek.com/corruption-stalling-ukraine-optimistic-revolution-425477 https://www.newsweek.com/corruption-stalling-ukraine-optimis... [4] http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/91317/ http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/91317/
  - tobltobs 4y ago
    Your first link only says that at the beginning it was only 30%, which isn't a too big surprise considering the chaos at this time and it is talking about non lethal weapons only anyway. "Jonas Ohman is founder and CEO of Blue-Yellow, a Lithuania-based organization that has been meeting with and supplying frontline units with non-lethal military aid in Ukraine since the start of the conflict with Russia-backed separatists in 2014. Back in April, he estimated that just "30-40%" of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. But he says the situation has significantly improved since then and a much larger quantity now gets where it's supposed to go."
    - 0xy 4y ago
      That statement doesn't say he's referring to non-lethal weapons, nor does the article say that. Additionally, the bulk of the weapons were sent prior to the "improvements". So, where's the $16,000,000,000 in weapons that vanished? Do you even know how many weapons that is? Operation Fast and Furious was only 2,000 firearms. This is a far bigger deal. The US' Brigadier General arrived in August for auditing - this month! So everything was just getting stolen before now? Pentagon officials have no faith that the US is keeping tabs on the weapons, from another US source. [1] It's a bit laughable anyone could defend Ukraine politicians, given all the graft. Most recently, the wife of a former politician tried to flee with $28m in cash in suitcases. Totally legit I'm sure. [2] [1] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-ukraine-aid-oversight-00036463 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-u... [2] https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wife-of-former-ukrainian-politician-caught-with-28m-in-cash-at-hungarian-border-reports https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wife-of-former-ukrainian...

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]