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Germany didn't believe their own intelligence figures of US manufacturing output. They were laughed to scorn as impossible. Some hubris there, certainly.

kamaal 4y ago
Some level of hubris everybody has. Go read any thread here about Russia-Ukraine, almost unanimously most comments read like Russia is destined to lose, no matter what they do. You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion. Patriotism like many other emotional attachments can make you blind to your biases. The common theme among most US citizens in this very forum is American exceptionalism - That is - USA will win no matter how many wrong moves it makes, its opponents will lose no matter how many right moves they make. Its not hard to imagine Germany with its universities, industries, scientists, engineering prowess etc- To have similar illusions of grandeur.
- the_only_law 4y ago
  > You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion. For some reason, my YouTube feed has been hijacked by low quality videos swearing up and down that China’s economy will collapse tomorrow.
- nradov 4y ago
  China isn't weak, but for now they still lack the airborne and amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan. This has nothing to do with patriotism, it's a simple matter of geography and weather. There are only a few months per year when sea conditions make an invasion possible, and only a few ports or beaches where an invasion force could potentially put ashore. Look at a map. Those points are relatively easy for a smaller force to defend. In a few years China might build up the necessary capabilities, but that situation doesn't obtain today. China could absolutely wreck Taiwan's civilian infrastructure with air and missile strikes. But that doesn't mean they can invade and conquer the main island.
  - rdtwo 4y ago
    You don’t need to bomb Taiwan. A blockade of 1-2 years would be plenty. They don’t need to fire a single missile at the mainland.
    - kamaal 4y ago
      US doesn't go around bombing and invading every nation it wants to control either. Greyzone ops, color revolutions etc. There are many ways in which China could achieve its goals without a full fledged war.
    - nradov 4y ago
      A blockade is an act of war. If China instituted a blockade then Taiwan would certainly respond kinetically. The situation would escalate from there, and the US would eventually be drawn into the conflict.

kamaal 4y ago

Some level of hubris everybody has. Go read any thread here about Russia-Ukraine, almost unanimously most comments read like Russia is destined to lose, no matter what they do. You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion. Patriotism like many other emotional attachments can make you blind to your biases. The common theme among most US citizens in this very forum is American exceptionalism - That is - USA will win no matter how many wrong moves it makes, its opponents will lose no matter how many right moves they make. Its not hard to imagine Germany with its universities, industries, scientists, engineering prowess etc- To have similar illusions of grandeur.

the_only_law 4y ago
> You will also read how China is absolutely a weak military power and will lose in case of a Taiwan invasion. For some reason, my YouTube feed has been hijacked by low quality videos swearing up and down that China’s economy will collapse tomorrow.
nradov 4y ago
China isn't weak, but for now they still lack the airborne and amphibious lift capacity to invade Taiwan. This has nothing to do with patriotism, it's a simple matter of geography and weather. There are only a few months per year when sea conditions make an invasion possible, and only a few ports or beaches where an invasion force could potentially put ashore. Look at a map. Those points are relatively easy for a smaller force to defend. In a few years China might build up the necessary capabilities, but that situation doesn't obtain today. China could absolutely wreck Taiwan's civilian infrastructure with air and missile strikes. But that doesn't mean they can invade and conquer the main island.
- rdtwo 4y ago
  You don’t need to bomb Taiwan. A blockade of 1-2 years would be plenty. They don’t need to fire a single missile at the mainland.
  - kamaal 4y ago
    US doesn't go around bombing and invading every nation it wants to control either. Greyzone ops, color revolutions etc. There are many ways in which China could achieve its goals without a full fledged war.
  - nradov 4y ago
    A blockade is an act of war. If China instituted a blockade then Taiwan would certainly respond kinetically. The situation would escalate from there, and the US would eventually be drawn into the conflict.