3 ms·

How many would you want to see to call it routine?

by X6S1x6Okd1st 4y ago

thechao 4y ago
I'm an `n=30` man, myself!
Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
20-25, when kids born after Bitcoin emergence will start dying of old age.
HWR_14 4y ago
For something with this effect size, I feel like people can start making a case in the mid-teens, but you're probably at 20+ before you can make a strong case. Edit: That's cycles. So I'm saying it's 2055+ before any case can be made and it's 2070+ before a strong case can be made.
- imtringued 4y ago
  Actually, during the gold standard there were booms and busts every four years. Bitcoin might be on a different cycle but the constant inflation and deflation are actually expected with a fixed supply currency.
  - HWR_14 4y ago
    During the gold standard the boom/bust cycles were closer to a decade. Also, gold was a currency and Bitcoin is a speculative asset currently used for sending money to other countries and for illegal purposes.
- scotty79 4y ago
  I think it's important to notice that periodicity of bitcoin is not some emergent phenomenon happening for unknown reason. It's build into the bitcoin in form of reducing the rate of supply by half roughly every 4 years. So do you really have to be hit in the head 20 times before you notice it spins?
  - HWR_14 4y ago
    So your claim is that a three year cycle is driven by a four year cycle? Besides, the bust shouldn't be driven by the mining of new coins anymore. When a huge number we're being mined as a percentage of the total btc supply you could make that case. But now, the difference between generated btc now and after the halving is negligible. But your overall point that causality linked to external factors is correct. It's just "the mechanism is halving the rewards" hasn't happened enough times to be valid because halving isn't reliable enough yet.
    - scotty79 4y ago
      I didn't say it's on 3 year cycle. I said it can gain a lot in 3 years. The cycle is 4 year, peak to peak. Busts are not causing by mining more. Busts are caused by greed burning out. Greed that was caused by appreciacion due to more limited supply. Reducing supply by half is never negligible because supply balances the demand so halving it leaves half of the demand unfulfilled. Also half of the bitcoins are worth more than double that from before the halving.

How many would you want to see to call it routine?

thechao 4y ago

I'm an `n=30` man, myself!

Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago

20-25, when kids born after Bitcoin emergence will start dying of old age.

HWR_14 4y ago

For something with this effect size, I feel like people can start making a case in the mid-teens, but you're probably at 20+ before you can make a strong case. Edit: That's cycles. So I'm saying it's 2055+ before any case can be made and it's 2070+ before a strong case can be made.

imtringued 4y ago
Actually, during the gold standard there were booms and busts every four years. Bitcoin might be on a different cycle but the constant inflation and deflation are actually expected with a fixed supply currency.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  During the gold standard the boom/bust cycles were closer to a decade. Also, gold was a currency and Bitcoin is a speculative asset currently used for sending money to other countries and for illegal purposes.
scotty79 4y ago
I think it's important to notice that periodicity of bitcoin is not some emergent phenomenon happening for unknown reason. It's build into the bitcoin in form of reducing the rate of supply by half roughly every 4 years. So do you really have to be hit in the head 20 times before you notice it spins?
- HWR_14 4y ago
  So your claim is that a three year cycle is driven by a four year cycle? Besides, the bust shouldn't be driven by the mining of new coins anymore. When a huge number we're being mined as a percentage of the total btc supply you could make that case. But now, the difference between generated btc now and after the halving is negligible. But your overall point that causality linked to external factors is correct. It's just "the mechanism is halving the rewards" hasn't happened enough times to be valid because halving isn't reliable enough yet.
  - scotty79 4y ago
    I didn't say it's on 3 year cycle. I said it can gain a lot in 3 years. The cycle is 4 year, peak to peak. Busts are not causing by mining more. Busts are caused by greed burning out. Greed that was caused by appreciacion due to more limited supply. Reducing supply by half is never negligible because supply balances the demand so halving it leaves half of the demand unfulfilled. Also half of the bitcoins are worth more than double that from before the halving.