5 ms·

Anyone who actually lives in the American West knows this has been a very wet summer. I live in the Colorado Mountains and I bet only we've had around 20 days t

Anyone who actually lives in the American West knows this has been a very wet summer. I live in the Colorado Mountains and I bet only we've had around 20 days this whole summer without rain. I think this is an outflow problem rather than an inflow problem. Looks at the historical data here https://www.usbr.gov/rsvrWater/HistoricalApp.html https://www.usbr.gov/rsvrWater/HistoricalApp.html

sbf501 4y ago
One rainy year doesn't replenish levels (or aquifers). This is a decade's long problem.
- Retric 4y ago
  A single extreme weather event can refill most dams, what the parent post is missing is it’s actually been a dry year for the watershed and most of the region. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ A few areas have gotten normal amount of snow or rain, but watersheds are huge and water is saved up over long timeframes. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/images/maps/CRBSmap.jpg https://www.usbr.gov/lc/images/maps/CRBSmap.jpg
  - Retric 4y ago
    For those who doubt the mention of a refill from a single weather event, 500 year floods are a thing. It’s more likely the lower the average annual rainfall in a region is, but you get nonliner amounts of flooding with extreme events because a lower percentage is obsorbed into the soil. Large floods can carry more water than the river carries in an average year.
pastor_bob 4y ago
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CO https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonito...
rconti 4y ago
It's going to take overwhelming evidence to overcome the "historic drought" claims we've been hearing for some time now. Not wild "anyone who actually lives in the American West knows" conjecture based on "I bet" and what is happening in your very local backyard this specific year. FWIW I tried the link and couldn't get it to generate data.
- treeman79 4y ago
  30-35 years ago I recall being taught about how we were in a historic 7 year drought. Not sure but around same time I think I also had some school teacher astronaut come and give our school a speech before she went up.
  - amalcon 4y ago
    Wow, uh... about 37 years ago, this happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disas.... McAuliffe was to be the first teacher they sent to space, and they didn't try again until I think '98. Not sure if you realized that connection, but it was kind of surreal for me when it clicked that this is probably who you're talking about.
    - treeman79 4y ago
      Was many years before I realized I had seen the crew before they blew up. Freaked me out when I did.
arminiusreturns 4y ago
Yep, there a a bunch of rich people enclaves in the desert where they use their leverage to avoid accountability for wasting the most of this and other valuable community resources. In particular too many huge artificial lakes that werent designed to catpure runoff well so only replinishing from Hoover pipes brings them up to level. Water usage restrictions for normals but none enforced on companies and the rich, on top of all the normal problems, build up to a stark conclusion: we cannot sustain population growth in Hoover dependent communities with current societal usage rates. On a different note, I always appreciated the teaching from the local tribes about how being the source of these waters (multiple headwaters on west side of continental divide) was considered not just a privledge but even more important a responsibilty. Every thing you do upstream impacts tons of peoples downstream.
PheonixPharts 4y ago
It's definitely both, poor water management combined with desertification of the region. People studying water management in the American South West have long been aware that there has been more water allocated than actually exists. However this is definitely compounded by climate change. To your point you can see that in last month lake Mead has been rising quite a bit[0]. Unlike lake Powell, I do not believe this rise is because of redirecting other water sources (please correct me if I am wrong). However you can see this increase is a long way from restoring, and the region is still considered under drought conditions (though less severe that it was earlier in year). 0. https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp
- WalterBright 4y ago
  > more water allocated than actually exists This was true and known even in the 1970s when I lived in Arizona.
Retric 4y ago
I agree it’s overalocated, but the region is still in drought: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ What’s important to understand is water resources are averaged over a multi year period and a few months of normal rain isn’t enough to make things ok. That said, much of the midwest’s water issues come from assumptions before wells dropped water levels in the region. A stream can gain or lose water based on the local water table so simply getting X rainfall per year doesn't guarantee a dam will continue receiving the same amount of water year after year. Worse models aren’t based on unlimited data, random events can mean you’re basing things in unusually good times, even ignoring climate change.
photochemsyn 4y ago
Year-to-year variability isn't enough to make up for cumulative multi-year effects. See this UC Boulder webinar - here's the timepoint where they discuss multi-year droughts: https://youtu.be/YhF9sOUpe9Y?t=1868 https://youtu.be/YhF9sOUpe9Y?t=1868 1931-1937 1959-1964 1988-1992 2000-2005 2012-present Notice the increasing tempo of drought frequency? That's in line with long-term climate model predictions of the drying of the American Southwest, linked to a general trend of rising interior temperatures in midlatitude continental zones (in particular, decreased soil moisture, declining summer snowpack, possibly expanding Hadley cell circulation). See also the 2000-present graph at the bottom of this page: https://www.drought.gov/states/colorado https://www.drought.gov/states/colorado It might be true that these reservoirs could be refilled if most outflow was eliminated, but that would mean the end of regional agriculture and severe restrictions on household water use across the entire region.
- WalterBright 4y ago
  > severe restrictions Why do people always turn to regulation and rationing rather than simply increasing the price of water?
  - photochemsyn 4y ago
    Essentially the effect is the same, but one reason is reducing conflict. A bidding war over water rights, for example, might mean that some regions don't get enough water to survive while others get enough to keep their golf courses green. Historically in the American West, that kind of thing has led to people dynamiting canals and so on. A more balanced option might be setting a minimal delivery baseline for everyone in the watershed, with prices rising steeply above that baseline for the remaining water. This would encourage adoption of recycling, aka 'toilet-to-tap'...
  - Ancalagon 4y ago
    Not to mention restricting water use for agriculture would more than solve the problem for residential users.
  - fallingfrog 4y ago
dogman144 4y ago
Pump the breaks. If you live below 8k altitude, it’s been dry. Also, I’m not sure how you’re missing the very acrimonious Colorado River negotiations b/t upper and lower basin states. Upper basin is refusing to commit to water use quotes in 2023, lower basin states aren’t addressing the root cause at all while asking for cuts (my bias - this how the upper basin probably should act without rational acknowledgement and concessions of why Co/WY/UT should sacrifice water for Almond farms in CA and Arizona suburban sprawl and golf courses in literal deserts). If you’re not aware of how heated this is getting, you should check in. It’s about to shape a tremendous amount of water policy for us, however it turns out.

sbf501 4y ago

One rainy year doesn't replenish levels (or aquifers). This is a decade's long problem.

Retric 4y ago
A single extreme weather event can refill most dams, what the parent post is missing is it’s actually been a dry year for the watershed and most of the region. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ A few areas have gotten normal amount of snow or rain, but watersheds are huge and water is saved up over long timeframes. https://www.usbr.gov/lc/images/maps/CRBSmap.jpg https://www.usbr.gov/lc/images/maps/CRBSmap.jpg
- Retric 4y ago
  For those who doubt the mention of a refill from a single weather event, 500 year floods are a thing. It’s more likely the lower the average annual rainfall in a region is, but you get nonliner amounts of flooding with extreme events because a lower percentage is obsorbed into the soil. Large floods can carry more water than the river carries in an average year.

pastor_bob 4y ago

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CO https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonito...

rconti 4y ago

It's going to take overwhelming evidence to overcome the "historic drought" claims we've been hearing for some time now. Not wild "anyone who actually lives in the American West knows" conjecture based on "I bet" and what is happening in your very local backyard this specific year. FWIW I tried the link and couldn't get it to generate data.

treeman79 4y ago
30-35 years ago I recall being taught about how we were in a historic 7 year drought. Not sure but around same time I think I also had some school teacher astronaut come and give our school a speech before she went up.
- amalcon 4y ago
  Wow, uh... about 37 years ago, this happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disas.... McAuliffe was to be the first teacher they sent to space, and they didn't try again until I think '98. Not sure if you realized that connection, but it was kind of surreal for me when it clicked that this is probably who you're talking about.
  - treeman79 4y ago
    Was many years before I realized I had seen the crew before they blew up. Freaked me out when I did.

arminiusreturns 4y ago

Yep, there a a bunch of rich people enclaves in the desert where they use their leverage to avoid accountability for wasting the most of this and other valuable community resources. In particular too many huge artificial lakes that werent designed to catpure runoff well so only replinishing from Hoover pipes brings them up to level. Water usage restrictions for normals but none enforced on companies and the rich, on top of all the normal problems, build up to a stark conclusion: we cannot sustain population growth in Hoover dependent communities with current societal usage rates. On a different note, I always appreciated the teaching from the local tribes about how being the source of these waters (multiple headwaters on west side of continental divide) was considered not just a privledge but even more important a responsibilty. Every thing you do upstream impacts tons of peoples downstream.

PheonixPharts 4y ago

It's definitely both, poor water management combined with desertification of the region. People studying water management in the American South West have long been aware that there has been more water allocated than actually exists. However this is definitely compounded by climate change. To your point you can see that in last month lake Mead has been rising quite a bit[0]. Unlike lake Powell, I do not believe this rise is because of redirecting other water sources (please correct me if I am wrong). However you can see this increase is a long way from restoring, and the region is still considered under drought conditions (though less severe that it was earlier in year). 0. https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp

WalterBright 4y ago
> more water allocated than actually exists This was true and known even in the 1970s when I lived in Arizona.

Retric 4y ago

I agree it’s overalocated, but the region is still in drought: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ What’s important to understand is water resources are averaged over a multi year period and a few months of normal rain isn’t enough to make things ok. That said, much of the midwest’s water issues come from assumptions before wells dropped water levels in the region. A stream can gain or lose water based on the local water table so simply getting X rainfall per year doesn't guarantee a dam will continue receiving the same amount of water year after year. Worse models aren’t based on unlimited data, random events can mean you’re basing things in unusually good times, even ignoring climate change.

photochemsyn 4y ago

Year-to-year variability isn't enough to make up for cumulative multi-year effects. See this UC Boulder webinar - here's the timepoint where they discuss multi-year droughts: https://youtu.be/YhF9sOUpe9Y?t=1868 https://youtu.be/YhF9sOUpe9Y?t=1868 1931-1937 1959-1964 1988-1992 2000-2005 2012-present Notice the increasing tempo of drought frequency? That's in line with long-term climate model predictions of the drying of the American Southwest, linked to a general trend of rising interior temperatures in midlatitude continental zones (in particular, decreased soil moisture, declining summer snowpack, possibly expanding Hadley cell circulation). See also the 2000-present graph at the bottom of this page: https://www.drought.gov/states/colorado https://www.drought.gov/states/colorado It might be true that these reservoirs could be refilled if most outflow was eliminated, but that would mean the end of regional agriculture and severe restrictions on household water use across the entire region.

WalterBright 4y ago
> severe restrictions Why do people always turn to regulation and rationing rather than simply increasing the price of water?
- photochemsyn 4y ago
  Essentially the effect is the same, but one reason is reducing conflict. A bidding war over water rights, for example, might mean that some regions don't get enough water to survive while others get enough to keep their golf courses green. Historically in the American West, that kind of thing has led to people dynamiting canals and so on. A more balanced option might be setting a minimal delivery baseline for everyone in the watershed, with prices rising steeply above that baseline for the remaining water. This would encourage adoption of recycling, aka 'toilet-to-tap'...
- Ancalagon 4y ago
  Not to mention restricting water use for agriculture would more than solve the problem for residential users.
- fallingfrog 4y ago

dogman144 4y ago

Pump the breaks. If you live below 8k altitude, it’s been dry. Also, I’m not sure how you’re missing the very acrimonious Colorado River negotiations b/t upper and lower basin states. Upper basin is refusing to commit to water use quotes in 2023, lower basin states aren’t addressing the root cause at all while asking for cuts (my bias - this how the upper basin probably should act without rational acknowledgement and concessions of why Co/WY/UT should sacrifice water for Almond farms in CA and Arizona suburban sprawl and golf courses in literal deserts). If you’re not aware of how heated this is getting, you should check in. It’s about to shape a tremendous amount of water policy for us, however it turns out.