6 ms·

I have bought two cars new in my life, and held each for ~12 years. The second is on it's 12th year, and still going strong. Also there's really no reason tha

by bb88 4y ago

I have bought two cars new in my life, and held each for ~12 years. The second is on it's 12th year, and still going strong. Also there's really no reason that I won't be able to keep my car another 8 years, making it a 20 year car. If I buy a 60k electric vehicle today, how long will it be until I replace the batteries? 10 years? 20 years? At what point does the maintenance cycle, render the car worthless? Even after 12 years, the Saturn SL1 I had still worked as a car. There would still be maintenance cycles (oil, brakes, etc). But if you took that into the cost of ownership, it's still relatively cheaper than buying a new car.

markvdb 4y ago
> Also there's really no reason that I won't be able to keep my car another 8 years, making it a 20 year car. In northwestern Europe, the reason would be low emission zones. "Sorry, this type of car is not allowed here anymore." is a real thing here.
- oynqr 4y ago
  In reality I have only seen this happen to old/bad cars with equally bad diesel engines.
  - markvdb 4y ago
    Take Brussels, the EU capital. Euro 4 diesel cars are forbidden there now. Euro 5 became mandatory for new car registrations in 2011 [0]. That means 11 years old cars could still be Euro 4. These are not old or bad cars to a lot of people. Many are not able to afford car mobility anymore due to low emission zone restrictions on these cars. It's easy for the upper middle class or above running society to develop a blind spot for this. "Just buy recent a second hand car or a new Dacia Spring" is not the answer if the money for that is missing. Has enough attention been paid to this social side of the low emissions zones? I'm not so sure. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Em...
  - _ph_ 4y ago
    Paris is going to lock out parts of the city for ICE cars in 24.
    - bb88 4y ago
      In the US there are large areas where gas powered vehicles are going to be needed for at least 3 or 4 more decades.
- IshKebab 4y ago
  Only for diesel cars and only in certain cities and you can still drive there if you pay a fine. It's perfectly reasonable.
- bb88 4y ago
  Where I live, we have to do emissions testing. And it passed this year. The emissions testing was a result of the 1970s/1980s smog crisis.
enraged_camel 4y ago
In the US, electric vehicle batteries are required by law to be under warranty for 8 years or 100,000 miles. In California, it is 10 years and 150,000 miles.
- bb88 4y ago
  If the average ownership of a car is 12 years, that doesn't help for the next owner.
jeffrallen 4y ago
Renault has found, to it's surprise, I guess, that 10 year old Zoes are keeping minimum 85% battery capacity. The BMS babies the batteries. Forget what you think you know about LiPo from laptops and cellphones. For example: you can't get a Zoe without A/C. Why not? Because the battery is air cooled, by the A/C. If there is capacity left over AFTER ensuring the battery is comfortable, it is shared with the human occupants. :)
sgt101 4y ago
How many components have you replaced on the Saturn? If you put 200k and 20 years on it then I am guessing you will need two new clutches, at least one pump and a bunch of sundries. Tyre wear can be heavy in EV's if you put your foot down a lot, brake wear is a lot lighter. At about 200k the battery may well go - but at 200k you can expect something major in your ICE drive chain to go. A new gearbox can set you back $6k - that's pretty similar to the cost of a tesla battery replacement.
- bb88 4y ago
  These are what I can recall on the top of my head. Starter $800 (on warranty). AC $400. Transmission service $1500 at 70k. Coolant flush $400. 2 set of brake pads @ $400 a piece. Timing belt $200. Battery $100. Oil changes at $30 every 3k miles. Lets call it $1k total. Cabin Air filter change every 15k miles $20 Bottom heat shield $100 Shocks @100k miles $250 Sundries sure, but spread out over time.
jillesvangurp 4y ago
Most ICE cars that age are either falling apart or long retired to the junk yard. They get nowhere near the fuel economy they might have had when they left the factory. Also, cumulatively the amount of maintenance, parts, and hours tinkering with the vehicle adds up. A battery replacement is an economical choice for an EV. You could buy a new vehicle or buy a life extension of another decade plus. That's how long the battery lasts and there's very little else in the vehicle that is very likely to start falling apart. Electrical engines last a long time. Drive trains are much simpler. And parts for that are relatively cheap. So even if the engine were to fail, replacing it would be pretty straightforward and cheap probably. E.g. a Nissan Leaf battery replacement will set you back around 7000 dollars. A lot of money for sure. But it will last quite long and when there's really nothing else wrong with the vehicle, it's a perfectly rational decision to make. Lots of original Nissan Leafs from 12 years ago are still driving around and quite a few will survive into their second and third decade. As it is one of the older EV models available, that's a great benchmark. We're talking first generation technology. The batteries and drive train were more primitive. Cooling and battery management were not a thing yet. Etc. Just great little vehicles. And a 7K battery doubles their original range (from 20kwh to 40kwh).
- bb88 4y ago
  > E.g. a Nissan Leaf battery replacement will set you back around 7000 dollars. A lot of money for sure. But it will last quite long and when there's really nothing else wrong with the vehicle, it's a perfectly rational decision to make. Lots of original Nissan Leafs from 12 years ago are still driving around and quite a few will survive into their second and third decade. This is better than Tesla which charges $12-20k + labor + parts to change the battery pack. But $7k is still a big chunk of change. That will set a price cliff on the car. Basically if it is worth $13k, but you're going to need a battery change in the next year, the true price of the car will be worth $6k on the market. Cars that are less than $7k become effectively worthless as the new buyer will be guaranteed to have to replace the battery pack on them. This happens with home sales. Like if a house needs a new roof, the buyers will ask the home owners to discount the price of the new roof off the house. https://www.way.com/blog/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/ https://www.way.com/blog/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/
clysm 4y ago
> the National Renewable Energy Laboratory indicates that today’s batteries may last 12 to 15 years in moderate climates (8 to 12 years in extreme climates). https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62813.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62813.pdf
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  "Today" being 2014 for this particular source. I wonder if we have any newer information that doesn't rely on predictions?

by bb88 4y ago

markvdb 4y ago

> Also there's really no reason that I won't be able to keep my car another 8 years, making it a 20 year car. In northwestern Europe, the reason would be low emission zones. "Sorry, this type of car is not allowed here anymore." is a real thing here.

oynqr 4y ago
In reality I have only seen this happen to old/bad cars with equally bad diesel engines.
- markvdb 4y ago
  Take Brussels, the EU capital. Euro 4 diesel cars are forbidden there now. Euro 5 became mandatory for new car registrations in 2011 [0]. That means 11 years old cars could still be Euro 4. These are not old or bad cars to a lot of people. Many are not able to afford car mobility anymore due to low emission zone restrictions on these cars. It's easy for the upper middle class or above running society to develop a blind spot for this. "Just buy recent a second hand car or a new Dacia Spring" is not the answer if the money for that is missing. Has enough attention been paid to this social side of the low emissions zones? I'm not so sure. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Em...
- _ph_ 4y ago
  Paris is going to lock out parts of the city for ICE cars in 24.
  - bb88 4y ago
    In the US there are large areas where gas powered vehicles are going to be needed for at least 3 or 4 more decades.
IshKebab 4y ago
Only for diesel cars and only in certain cities and you can still drive there if you pay a fine. It's perfectly reasonable.
bb88 4y ago
Where I live, we have to do emissions testing. And it passed this year. The emissions testing was a result of the 1970s/1980s smog crisis.

enraged_camel 4y ago

In the US, electric vehicle batteries are required by law to be under warranty for 8 years or 100,000 miles. In California, it is 10 years and 150,000 miles.

bb88 4y ago
If the average ownership of a car is 12 years, that doesn't help for the next owner.

jeffrallen 4y ago

Renault has found, to it's surprise, I guess, that 10 year old Zoes are keeping minimum 85% battery capacity. The BMS babies the batteries. Forget what you think you know about LiPo from laptops and cellphones. For example: you can't get a Zoe without A/C. Why not? Because the battery is air cooled, by the A/C. If there is capacity left over AFTER ensuring the battery is comfortable, it is shared with the human occupants. :)

sgt101 4y ago

How many components have you replaced on the Saturn? If you put 200k and 20 years on it then I am guessing you will need two new clutches, at least one pump and a bunch of sundries. Tyre wear can be heavy in EV's if you put your foot down a lot, brake wear is a lot lighter. At about 200k the battery may well go - but at 200k you can expect something major in your ICE drive chain to go. A new gearbox can set you back $6k - that's pretty similar to the cost of a tesla battery replacement.

bb88 4y ago
These are what I can recall on the top of my head. Starter $800 (on warranty). AC $400. Transmission service $1500 at 70k. Coolant flush $400. 2 set of brake pads @ $400 a piece. Timing belt $200. Battery $100. Oil changes at $30 every 3k miles. Lets call it $1k total. Cabin Air filter change every 15k miles $20 Bottom heat shield $100 Shocks @100k miles $250 Sundries sure, but spread out over time.

jillesvangurp 4y ago

Most ICE cars that age are either falling apart or long retired to the junk yard. They get nowhere near the fuel economy they might have had when they left the factory. Also, cumulatively the amount of maintenance, parts, and hours tinkering with the vehicle adds up. A battery replacement is an economical choice for an EV. You could buy a new vehicle or buy a life extension of another decade plus. That's how long the battery lasts and there's very little else in the vehicle that is very likely to start falling apart. Electrical engines last a long time. Drive trains are much simpler. And parts for that are relatively cheap. So even if the engine were to fail, replacing it would be pretty straightforward and cheap probably. E.g. a Nissan Leaf battery replacement will set you back around 7000 dollars. A lot of money for sure. But it will last quite long and when there's really nothing else wrong with the vehicle, it's a perfectly rational decision to make. Lots of original Nissan Leafs from 12 years ago are still driving around and quite a few will survive into their second and third decade. As it is one of the older EV models available, that's a great benchmark. We're talking first generation technology. The batteries and drive train were more primitive. Cooling and battery management were not a thing yet. Etc. Just great little vehicles. And a 7K battery doubles their original range (from 20kwh to 40kwh).

bb88 4y ago
> E.g. a Nissan Leaf battery replacement will set you back around 7000 dollars. A lot of money for sure. But it will last quite long and when there's really nothing else wrong with the vehicle, it's a perfectly rational decision to make. Lots of original Nissan Leafs from 12 years ago are still driving around and quite a few will survive into their second and third decade. This is better than Tesla which charges $12-20k + labor + parts to change the battery pack. But $7k is still a big chunk of change. That will set a price cliff on the car. Basically if it is worth $13k, but you're going to need a battery change in the next year, the true price of the car will be worth $6k on the market. Cars that are less than $7k become effectively worthless as the new buyer will be guaranteed to have to replace the battery pack on them. This happens with home sales. Like if a house needs a new roof, the buyers will ask the home owners to discount the price of the new roof off the house. https://www.way.com/blog/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/ https://www.way.com/blog/tesla-battery-replacement-cost/

clysm 4y ago

> the National Renewable Energy Laboratory indicates that today’s batteries may last 12 to 15 years in moderate climates (8 to 12 years in extreme climates). https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62813.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62813.pdf

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
"Today" being 2014 for this particular source. I wonder if we have any newer information that doesn't rely on predictions?