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Total Russian losses of multirole/fighter/attack aircraft are estimated at only 42[1] compared to a possible in-service count of approximately 1228[2], for a 3%
by dhx 4y ago
Total Russian losses of multirole/fighter/attack aircraft are estimated at only 42[1] compared to a possible in-service count of approximately 1228[2], for a 3% loss so far.
Lack of industrial capacity to produce aircraft parts and munitions is a more likely reason for keeping Russian aircraft on the ground and slowing the pace of the war. It is estimated that Russia in the first three months used up an equivalent of 4 years worth of US production of all types of missiles.[3] And the US has so far sent Ukraine approximately 4 years worth of production of Javelin missiles.[3] The US aren't expecting to be able to double the annual 2100/yr production rate[3] until a few more years time so the limiting factor for Ukraine will soon be industrial capacity of Western countries to manufacture new munitions and equipment.
Impacting all parties to the war is global inflation that is significantly reducing defense industrial capacity output in real terms. For the US, the defense sector contracted 6% in real terms in 2021.[4] With Russia's official inflation rate recently over 17% and many sanctions in place, defense sector output for Russia is a far bleaker situation.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#Total_losses_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_militar...
[3] https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme...
[4] https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-defence-spending-the-impact-of-inflation https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/02/global-d...
- optimalsolver 4y ago>a possible in-service count of approximately 1228 I doubt most of those are operational. Likely already stripped for parts.
- sudosysgen 4y agoIt's also likely that many planes on Saki weren't operational.
- optimalsolver 4y agoThe SU-24S probably, but the SU-30s were likely active.
- bpodgursky 4y agoFwiw, that 42 is visually confirmed total losses, not estimates. I think the other comment is probably correct that the nominal 1228 planes in service is an over-estimate of flyable airframes by several multiples.
- ravedave5 4y agoIf you compare the losses to what is claimed as active you can rule out whole categories as being "active".
- giantrobot 4y ago> Total Russian losses of multirole/fighter/attack aircraft are estimated at only 42[1] compared to a possible in-service count of approximately 1228[2], for a 3% loss so far. Comparing losses at a forward operating base to the total number of aircraft in inventory is not very useful. For any military the total number of aircraft in inventory isn't the total force available at any given time. Out of the total inventory there's different levels of readiness. Losing a bunch of forward deployed operational aircraft is a huge blow to Russia's air power in the region. To replace them they need to strip aircraft from other units at operational readiness decreasing every unit's total air power. It's not Starcraft where a unit can fly from factory to the front lines. Additionally losing so many aircraft at a base deep in Russian claimed territory changes the power balance in the region. They can now fly fewer sorties and have a lower density of coverage.