7 ms·

Could also be demand destruction starting to slow the increases in prices.

rootusrootus 4y ago
Seems like EV uptake rate, while still just a fraction of total sales, is probably high enough to contribute to demand destruction. Gas prices have come down pretty fast. I wonder if EV adoption goes fast enough that we'll see a period of time when gas prices just crater for a while. A sweet spot of owning an ICE vehicle, but then gas stations will start to close up and ICEV owners could face the same problem EV owners face now but without the easy ability to refuel at their house.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- arbor_day 4y ago
  EVs are ~1% of cars and ~5% of new car sales. It seems like we have another 5 years until those scale effects start to really kick in.
  - rootusrootus 4y ago
    I agree, it will take some time for EVs to really take off. And the dynamics are difficult to predict. If even 5% of cars become electric, it will really move the needle on the retail gas pricing, which might slow EV adoption, etc. I expect it might go in waves. Although EVs have such a dramatic running cost advantage that as capital costs and range anxieties are addressed, the adoption rate will probably be supply limited for years.
    - jeromegv 4y ago
      EV growth of the last few years was nothing compared to the increase size of the average car (more SUV and pickup sales in proportion, compared to standard “cars”). So really the EV market is still insignificant and gaz consumption for the average household has gone up, not down.
      - scythe 4y ago
        >gaz consumption for the average household has gone up, not down. Historical data shows that overall gas consumption is more strongly linked to the frequency of highway travel than to recent changes in car purchases. See: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic-demand-for-gasoline-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic... There's a drop during the Great Recession, a rapid rise during the recovery, and a roughly flat line during the Trump administration until another crater during the COVID pandemic.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Price is set at the margin. If demand is 101% of supply, the price goes up. If demand is 99% of supply, the price goes down.
- pojzon 4y ago
  When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head. Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time. Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other. If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed countries probably 100+years.
  - tppiotrowski 4y ago
    If you want to replace gas stations with EV charging stations that 'full-up' your car in less than 5 minutes, you're right. But if every parking space just gets 1KW of solar panel ~$500 and sun shines for 10 hours a day, you probably have enough power for the 30 miles of daily commute. A car sits idle for 90% of the day. We can use this time to charge it. It's not the long road trip use case but I think will put a big dent in the resources needed to migrate to EV.
    - kortilla 4y ago
      > ~$500 and sun shines for 10 hours a day I’m not gonna spend 10 hours in an office and definitely not from sunrise to sunset. Also, 10 hours of sunshine in a day is a rarity in most of the US, especially during the winter.
      - tppiotrowski 4y ago
        Every parking space will have a 1KW charging panel so anytime you're not using your car it will charge. No need to stay at the office. Go about your day and every time you park your car it'll recharge.
  - rootusrootus 4y ago
    I'm not saying EVs are going to overtake ICEV anytime in the next few years. But a 10% reduction in demand for gasoline would be huge. Not sure I'm feeling as pessimistic on infrastructure. A bunch of the infrastructure for EVs already exists and is wired to every house. Even if we converted 100% of all newly sold vehicles to EV today, the grid build-out required wouldn't be any harder than what we've done in the past.

Seems like EV uptake rate, while still just a fraction of total sales, is probably high enough to contribute to demand destruction. Gas prices have come down pretty fast. I wonder if EV adoption goes fast enough that we'll see a period of time when gas prices just crater for a while. A sweet spot of owning an ICE vehicle, but then gas stations will start to close up and ICEV owners could face the same problem EV owners face now but without the easy ability to refuel at their house.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
arbor_day 4y ago
EVs are ~1% of cars and ~5% of new car sales. It seems like we have another 5 years until those scale effects start to really kick in.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  I agree, it will take some time for EVs to really take off. And the dynamics are difficult to predict. If even 5% of cars become electric, it will really move the needle on the retail gas pricing, which might slow EV adoption, etc. I expect it might go in waves. Although EVs have such a dramatic running cost advantage that as capital costs and range anxieties are addressed, the adoption rate will probably be supply limited for years.
  - jeromegv 4y ago
    EV growth of the last few years was nothing compared to the increase size of the average car (more SUV and pickup sales in proportion, compared to standard “cars”). So really the EV market is still insignificant and gaz consumption for the average household has gone up, not down.
    - scythe 4y ago
      >gaz consumption for the average household has gone up, not down. Historical data shows that overall gas consumption is more strongly linked to the frequency of highway travel than to recent changes in car purchases. See: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic-demand-for-gasoline-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic... There's a drop during the Great Recession, a rapid rise during the recovery, and a roughly flat line during the Trump administration until another crater during the COVID pandemic.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Price is set at the margin. If demand is 101% of supply, the price goes up. If demand is 99% of supply, the price goes down.
pojzon 4y ago
When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head. Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time. Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other. If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed countries probably 100+years.
- tppiotrowski 4y ago
  If you want to replace gas stations with EV charging stations that 'full-up' your car in less than 5 minutes, you're right. But if every parking space just gets 1KW of solar panel ~$500 and sun shines for 10 hours a day, you probably have enough power for the 30 miles of daily commute. A car sits idle for 90% of the day. We can use this time to charge it. It's not the long road trip use case but I think will put a big dent in the resources needed to migrate to EV.
  - kortilla 4y ago
    > ~$500 and sun shines for 10 hours a day I’m not gonna spend 10 hours in an office and definitely not from sunrise to sunset. Also, 10 hours of sunshine in a day is a rarity in most of the US, especially during the winter.
    - tppiotrowski 4y ago
      Every parking space will have a 1KW charging panel so anytime you're not using your car it will charge. No need to stay at the office. Go about your day and every time you park your car it'll recharge.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  I'm not saying EVs are going to overtake ICEV anytime in the next few years. But a 10% reduction in demand for gasoline would be huge. Not sure I'm feeling as pessimistic on infrastructure. A bunch of the infrastructure for EVs already exists and is wired to every house. Even if we converted 100% of all newly sold vehicles to EV today, the grid build-out required wouldn't be any harder than what we've done in the past.