5 ms·

How about when the battery goes bad. Currently only ice owners keep their cars for a r-e-a-l-l-y long time, in general. If ev's ever come down in price, and mor

by mbfg 4y ago

How about when the battery goes bad. Currently only ice owners keep their cars for a r-e-a-l-l-y long time, in general. If ev's ever come down in price, and more 'regular' people buy them, i'd expect the battery cost is going to crush people. Let's see what happens when people routinely try to keep 20 yr old evs.

r00fus 4y ago
I expect they'll be fine. Most of the EVs that required battery replacement were early Nissan Leafs with bad thermal management systems. My EV (5yo) has 96% capacity. Can't wait to test it again at 10y.
- tim333 4y ago
  Also hopefully batteries will get cheaper over time.
  - nradov 4y ago
    Battery cells will get cheaper over time. New battery packs for EVs older than ~10 years will often be unavailable at any price because they're no longer manufactured, or will be so expensive that the car gets scrapped. DRM features will make it difficult for third-party auto parts manufacturers to sell cheaper aftermarket replacement packs.
    - petra 4y ago
      Tesla was working on batteries with a 20-year lifespan.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
    - Kuinox 4y ago
      Zoe cars that sold 10 years ago can still get their battery replaced without much difficulties.
      - nradov 4y ago
        Cool. How much does that cost including all parts and labor as a percentage of the vehicle's value? Does Renault actually sell new production battery packs for those vehicles, or just refurbished parts with degraded capacity?
        Kuinox 4y ago
        > Does Renault actually sell new production battery packs for those vehicles, Yes. > How much does that cost including all parts and labor as a percentage of the vehicle's value? I think you are overestimating the time it take to replace a battery with appropriate equipment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qFN9sLjVU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qFN9sLjVU Initially only leased batteries were available, so there is still a lot of people with leased batteries, and batteries get swapped for free when capacity drop below 75%. The trick is that the battery capacity rarely go below 75%. Battery replacement is something very rare (which make leasing a bad deal), 10 years laters there is still very few peoples that peoples that made their car batteries replaced.
    - Cd00d 4y ago
      Honestly, I trust you're being sincere, but this reads like anti-EV FUD.
      - nradov 4y ago
        I am being sincere and would like to see EVs succeed, but let's be realistic about the full lifecycle costs and residual values. This goes beyond short term service costs. A 2002 model year Toyota 4Runner in decent running condition still retains significant value today, and can be easily repaired with commonly available parts. In 2042, will we be able to say the same about any EV being sold today?
jes5199 4y ago
I'm trying to picture what the cost of a LiPo battery array was 20 years ago, in 2002
KennyBlanken 4y ago
This argument started when the original Prius came out in 1997, twenty five years ago. Lots of predictions of "totaled" priuses, an environmental apocalypse, "gotcha, liberals!" etc. What actually happened: a cottage industry for repairing the battery packs sprung up to meet demand or when they'd fail, which wasn't that often (and indeed, Hybrid Camrys became the standard taxi cab in a number of US cities, racking up hundreds of thousands of miles on their batteries.) There are shops all around the country that do cell replacement now and getting your hybrid battery pack serviced is less painful than a lot of major engine repairs. Bolt EVs were (in large part due to GM's extremely conservative charge profiles for DCFC) seeing much less battery degradation than expected. Right up until the manufacturing defects reared their head...and GM has replaced all the batteries, giving them a very long warranty...8, maybe 10 years? I forget which. > If ev's ever come down in price You can buy several EV models new for under $30k, which is substantially less than the median car price in the US.
- mr337 4y ago
  Agree with this. This thread also mentioned the early Nissan Leaf, and exact same thing happened, a new cottage industry popped up to support rebuilds and even further range increase.
- Gibbon1 4y ago
  Notable, in California EV and hybrid batteries get a ten year 150,000 mile warranty. Speaking of Bolts, two years ago you could buy one with 30k miles on it for $15-18k. Can't now! The argument that EV's are too expensive based solely off the purchase price while ignoring everything else gets tiresome. My take is lower maintenance costs and depreciation beats out the difference between the cost of electricity vs gas. 5 cents/mile vs 12-15 cents a mile. That's only 7 to 10 cents/mile difference. EV's cost less to run even if gasoline were free.
  - mbfg 4y ago
    yeah, but i'd argue ten years is nothing. I don't doubt batteries will last 10 years, and for affluent people, cars are replaced more often than that. But if you are talking about wide spread adoption, low and lower middle class are going to keep cars much longer, if they can even afford new cars... And speaking of, would you dare buy a used ev car? You probably are talking at least 10K for a ten year old EV, and then if the battery is shot, and you now have to dump another 8K at least. Used EVs, imo, are a risky purchase.
csnover 4y ago
The average age of a car on the road today in America is 12 years. According to Hedges & Company, only ~10% of all cars on the road today are 20 years or older[0]. That’s not a small number, but “in general”, people do not drive 20 year old cars. The minimum battery warranty for an EV in the US is 8 years or 100k miles[1], and crowdsourced reports of battery degradation over time suggest that (at least for Tesla vehicles) it is not a major issue; range loss averages out to around 11% at 200k miles[2], which is the expected EOL for most ICE vehicles[3]. There are anecdotal reports of high-mileage EVs running on the same battery for over 350k miles[4] and 620k miles[5] without issue. [0] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/ https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/ [1] https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluating-electric-vehicle-warranties https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluati... [2] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5cHRzNCHZbtI_2vVhlXksX9Jc/edit#gid=826479810 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5c... [3] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-miles-does-a-car-last/ https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil... [4] https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-covered-350000-miles-on-original-battery/ https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-cov... [5] https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-million-miles-and-n-1848362945 https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-mil...
- antisthenes 4y ago
  While I agree that batteries are getting better and cheaper, there are several issues with your sources. 1. There are only 9 data points for only 1 brand of EVs on that sheet. This is essentially anecdotal data. There are 10 data points (just as many) of batteries under 80% of capacity with varying mileages. What happened with those? As a consumer, I don't want to get bad luck of the draw and be one of those. 2. The 1 million mile Tesla is on its 3rd battery pack. It's not a valid observation. At best we can surmise that a battery pack can last roughly ~333,333 miles under good conditions. But this is still a premium vehicle (P85) that is out of reach of most consumers with a large battery pack. What would the numbers be for a Nissan 45 kWh pack for example? If it's roughly half of 333k, then it's not as impressive anymore. Maybe 1/3 of that? The biggest issue though is that EVs still carry a substantial premium above ICE vehicles, which can only be realized in savings over a long period of high gasoline prices ($5+).
panick21_ 4y ago
Not really. Even boring standard NMC battery will last a very long time. Sure at some point it will degrade and only have 80% capacity but even then you can continue to use it for many years after that. Unless you have some electrical breakdown or something like that many batteries that we are building now can easily last 20+ years.

by mbfg 4y ago

r00fus 4y ago

I expect they'll be fine. Most of the EVs that required battery replacement were early Nissan Leafs with bad thermal management systems. My EV (5yo) has 96% capacity. Can't wait to test it again at 10y.

tim333 4y ago
Also hopefully batteries will get cheaper over time.
- nradov 4y ago
  Battery cells will get cheaper over time. New battery packs for EVs older than ~10 years will often be unavailable at any price because they're no longer manufactured, or will be so expensive that the car gets scrapped. DRM features will make it difficult for third-party auto parts manufacturers to sell cheaper aftermarket replacement packs.
  - petra 4y ago
    Tesla was working on batteries with a 20-year lifespan.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - Kuinox 4y ago
    Zoe cars that sold 10 years ago can still get their battery replaced without much difficulties.
    - nradov 4y ago
      Cool. How much does that cost including all parts and labor as a percentage of the vehicle's value? Does Renault actually sell new production battery packs for those vehicles, or just refurbished parts with degraded capacity?
      - Kuinox 4y ago
        > Does Renault actually sell new production battery packs for those vehicles, Yes. > How much does that cost including all parts and labor as a percentage of the vehicle's value? I think you are overestimating the time it take to replace a battery with appropriate equipment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qFN9sLjVU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qFN9sLjVU Initially only leased batteries were available, so there is still a lot of people with leased batteries, and batteries get swapped for free when capacity drop below 75%. The trick is that the battery capacity rarely go below 75%. Battery replacement is something very rare (which make leasing a bad deal), 10 years laters there is still very few peoples that peoples that made their car batteries replaced.
  - Cd00d 4y ago
    Honestly, I trust you're being sincere, but this reads like anti-EV FUD.
    - nradov 4y ago
      I am being sincere and would like to see EVs succeed, but let's be realistic about the full lifecycle costs and residual values. This goes beyond short term service costs. A 2002 model year Toyota 4Runner in decent running condition still retains significant value today, and can be easily repaired with commonly available parts. In 2042, will we be able to say the same about any EV being sold today?

jes5199 4y ago

I'm trying to picture what the cost of a LiPo battery array was 20 years ago, in 2002

KennyBlanken 4y ago

This argument started when the original Prius came out in 1997, twenty five years ago. Lots of predictions of "totaled" priuses, an environmental apocalypse, "gotcha, liberals!" etc. What actually happened: a cottage industry for repairing the battery packs sprung up to meet demand or when they'd fail, which wasn't that often (and indeed, Hybrid Camrys became the standard taxi cab in a number of US cities, racking up hundreds of thousands of miles on their batteries.) There are shops all around the country that do cell replacement now and getting your hybrid battery pack serviced is less painful than a lot of major engine repairs. Bolt EVs were (in large part due to GM's extremely conservative charge profiles for DCFC) seeing much less battery degradation than expected. Right up until the manufacturing defects reared their head...and GM has replaced all the batteries, giving them a very long warranty...8, maybe 10 years? I forget which. > If ev's ever come down in price You can buy several EV models new for under $30k, which is substantially less than the median car price in the US.

mr337 4y ago
Agree with this. This thread also mentioned the early Nissan Leaf, and exact same thing happened, a new cottage industry popped up to support rebuilds and even further range increase.
Gibbon1 4y ago
Notable, in California EV and hybrid batteries get a ten year 150,000 mile warranty. Speaking of Bolts, two years ago you could buy one with 30k miles on it for $15-18k. Can't now! The argument that EV's are too expensive based solely off the purchase price while ignoring everything else gets tiresome. My take is lower maintenance costs and depreciation beats out the difference between the cost of electricity vs gas. 5 cents/mile vs 12-15 cents a mile. That's only 7 to 10 cents/mile difference. EV's cost less to run even if gasoline were free.
- mbfg 4y ago
  yeah, but i'd argue ten years is nothing. I don't doubt batteries will last 10 years, and for affluent people, cars are replaced more often than that. But if you are talking about wide spread adoption, low and lower middle class are going to keep cars much longer, if they can even afford new cars... And speaking of, would you dare buy a used ev car? You probably are talking at least 10K for a ten year old EV, and then if the battery is shot, and you now have to dump another 8K at least. Used EVs, imo, are a risky purchase.

csnover 4y ago

The average age of a car on the road today in America is 12 years. According to Hedges & Company, only ~10% of all cars on the road today are 20 years or older[0]. That’s not a small number, but “in general”, people do not drive 20 year old cars. The minimum battery warranty for an EV in the US is 8 years or 100k miles[1], and crowdsourced reports of battery degradation over time suggest that (at least for Tesla vehicles) it is not a major issue; range loss averages out to around 11% at 200k miles[2], which is the expected EOL for most ICE vehicles[3]. There are anecdotal reports of high-mileage EVs running on the same battery for over 350k miles[4] and 620k miles[5] without issue. [0] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/ https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/ [1] https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluating-electric-vehicle-warranties https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluati... [2] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5cHRzNCHZbtI_2vVhlXksX9Jc/edit#gid=826479810 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5c... [3] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-miles-does-a-car-last/ https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil... [4] https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-covered-350000-miles-on-original-battery/ https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-cov... [5] https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-million-miles-and-n-1848362945 https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-mil...

antisthenes 4y ago
While I agree that batteries are getting better and cheaper, there are several issues with your sources. 1. There are only 9 data points for only 1 brand of EVs on that sheet. This is essentially anecdotal data. There are 10 data points (just as many) of batteries under 80% of capacity with varying mileages. What happened with those? As a consumer, I don't want to get bad luck of the draw and be one of those. 2. The 1 million mile Tesla is on its 3rd battery pack. It's not a valid observation. At best we can surmise that a battery pack can last roughly ~333,333 miles under good conditions. But this is still a premium vehicle (P85) that is out of reach of most consumers with a large battery pack. What would the numbers be for a Nissan 45 kWh pack for example? If it's roughly half of 333k, then it's not as impressive anymore. Maybe 1/3 of that? The biggest issue though is that EVs still carry a substantial premium above ICE vehicles, which can only be realized in savings over a long period of high gasoline prices ($5+).

panick21_ 4y ago

Not really. Even boring standard NMC battery will last a very long time. Sure at some point it will degrade and only have 80% capacity but even then you can continue to use it for many years after that. Unless you have some electrical breakdown or something like that many batteries that we are building now can easily last 20+ years.