10 ms·

U.S. employers added 528k jobs in July

49 points by MilnerRoute 4y ago

derbOac 4y ago
This is why there are debates about whether we're in a recession.
- Loughla 4y ago
  I work at a college; more students than ever are working while going to school. They have jobs, but need something else because they can't afford the life they had just three or four years ago. It's really a weird time.
  - ianai 4y ago
    It is weird. Probably too weird for one word like recession to really convey much meaning. There certainly are assets/markets out there that feel/seem over valued. While the globe is still reacting to the pandemic. Stuff was weird after 1918, too. I actually think the changes seen in 1918 were far greater than anything we’ve seen thus far. So maybe the modern economy is a little more stiff with waves (disruptions) taking much longer to cool. Thinking of all the supply chain messiness.
    - AstralStorm 4y ago
      The word to be used is properly called greed. The last attempt to vacuum up money before debt pumped asset bubbles finally burst and the lack of actual economy is globally exposed. There's no economy when things do not sell, after all. Assets that do not sell or produce have no actual long term value, besides the power play of resource denial. Conveniently located housing for people would sort of indirectly produce if the economy still was industrial. Or perhaps R&D based. It isn't, therefore it doesn't. So everything freezes and general populace are serfs, bound by unpayable debt instead of location. Next step is actual serfdom contracts from corporations.
      - ianai 4y ago
        Econs say fiat currency is almost meaningless outside of when it’s actually being traded for goods and services. One way to express the value implied in currency is what a constant amount of it may be converted to across different goods. Or if speaking of difference currencies, how much a known constant good/service costs in the local currency and compare that across currencies. This is the basis for the Economists Big Mac index. So yes, when capital as the aggregate of whatever asset gets hoarded away by few people there is inefficiency. An efficient market looks like every market participant (supply and demand side) having only that marginal amount of resource needed to make their marginal contribution towards the total output. It’s also in no market participants interest to run advertisements since they will sell all they produce and have enough resources to produce all that they can. Like producing construction nails or any other good or service that’s never graced an ad.
  - ssully 4y ago
    I would be interested in actual data on if this is an increasing trend or not. When I was in college (graduated in 2015) most of my friends still had a job; be it to pay for school or to fund their weekend drinking activities.
    - Loughla 4y ago
      I think I should've been more specific in my first comment. Significantly more students are working full-time, with a non-significant amount indicating they are working at all. I have data! So at our institution, for the 2019-2020 academic year (most recent relevant data for comparison due to covid changes/temporary layoffs), 23% of our incoming students indicated working at least 36 hours a week, and an additional 52% indicated working between 5 and 35 hours a week. For the upcoming semester, 47% indicated they were working at least 36 hours a week, with an additional 30% indicating they worked 5 to 35 hours a week.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    The data shows this as well. Lots of people are working multiple jobs now
- Test0129 4y ago
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Part of me thinks that people are wishing for a recession because they can’t really understand the economy anymore. It has edged past rationality. There seems to be a yearning for a reset where traditional metrics make sense again.
jdhn 4y ago
This is an absurd amount of new jobs. By absurd, I mean that this is leaps and bounds beyond what was predicted. It also means that the Fed isn't going to taper off rate hikes anytime soon. I know that there were some who were predicting that rate hikes were going to stop in 2023, but I'm doubting that if we keep getting numbers like this.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  Agreed, and good thing too. Regardless of what you want to say about recession or not, the US is really well positioned for the next decade relative to other countries.
  - mywittyname 4y ago
    This is a sentiment that I'm happy to hear others share. If cards are played right, the USA could experience growth not seen since post-WWII. Inflation is high, but the USD is crushing every other currency. American businesses are fed up with shutdowns and shipping delays from Asia, and are willing to pay the price premium for domestic goods. And the federal government is doing (I think) a good job at pushing industries to capitalize on the global weakness.
    - AstralStorm 4y ago
      Check the structure of these jobs and then we can talk about how it actually will be a boom... Do you see industrial and manufacturing jobs as a major percentage here?
      - pxue 4y ago
        market forces and inflation will force corporations to look for domestic productions. short term pain for long term gain.
        DuskStar 4y ago
        If the US dollar keeps getting stronger relative to other currencies, it will be better to manufacture things offshore and import them. That is what a strong currency does.
tboyd47 4y ago
Are these new jobs or recently vacant ones?
- bombcar 4y ago
  From what I've seen, many many companies are still suffering from post-Covid rehiring problems. Airports, restaurants, almost all service industries are severely understaffed and continue to be so. I wonder how many people have decided to permanently leave the workforce - I know a number of families where one parent stopped working during covid and has no plans to return.
  - radpanda 4y ago
    This feels like it matches my anecdata as well. Some folks in positions where they have the choice to work or not work are staying on the sidelines. I know a school administrator who retired earlier than planned rather than deal with the madness, I know a college kid who just took the summer off rather than get a summer job, I know a speech therapist turned stay-at-home mom, etc. Rather than a few years ago when people's decision calculus was "do I want to trade my time for $X/hr to do some work?" it feels like it's become "do I want to trade my time for $X/hr AND risk getting myself or family members seriously sick AND deal with unhinged people at a time of political strife?" And sure, the X in $X/hr has gone up, but apparently not enough to convince as many people to wait tables as in 2019.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      A number of friends made a bunch of money from stocks and crypto and decided to quit their jobs and build something of their own. They always had plans to do it but never enough savings to take the leap.
    - shusaku 4y ago
      You can look at the labor force participation rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-parti... But I think controlling for demographic factors would take some work (look at the drop past 2000)
bandyaboot 4y ago
Can we put to bed this belief that the Biden administration is simply gaslighting us when they push back against the utility of the "2 consecutive quarters of negative growth" benchmark for our current economic environment? Seems fairly obvious that we should be questioning how useful that metric is right now.
- thesis 4y ago
  So you’re advocating that negative gdp growth is the same as positive gdp growth? It’s seems quite advantageous to suddenly change the definition when it slaps you in the face.
  - bandyaboot 4y ago
    > So you’re advocating that negative gdp growth is the same as positive gdp growth? I can only assume you must have responded to the wrong comment.
  - orwin 4y ago
    One interesting fact is that while GDP/Capita decline, median GDP/Capita doesn't. Maybe our indicator should be median rather than average, if we are really worried about the middle class.
- xbar 4y ago
  We should question that metric. Also, a little gaslighting. What I mean: if an administration doesn't like a given metric, it should get its replacement metric identified and publicized in advance. It sure looks a lot like gaslighting when the world has an agreed upon metric and you say "just ignore that; look over here."
  - bandyaboot 4y ago
    > What I mean: if an administration doesn't like a given metric, it should get its replacement metric identified and publicized in advance. That's assuming that they had a previously existing problem with the metric. But why would they, it's always been a fairly reliable rubber stamp. Economic indicators give consistent bad news for an extended period of time, then months later 2 quarters of GDP numbers have been released and the metric says "yep, that was/this is a recession". But the metric now kind of falls on its face in this strange situation of quite a lot of bad economic indicators paired with a strong jobs market. If we want to rigidly hold to the 2 quarters metric, then we're going to have to accept that "recession" means nothing larger about the economy than "2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth". It just becomes a short way of saying simply that.
bern4444 4y ago
Perhaps this will give the FED the courage to push a full percentage rise in the next meeting instead of 75 bps. Either way, this gives the FED the cover to continue raising rates through next year. Anyone who thinks the FED will lower rates next year is delusional.
- ramesh31 4y ago
  >Anyone who thinks the FED will lower rates next year is delusional. Literally nobody thinks that.
  - amock 4y ago
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-in-2023 https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-t...
  - raesene9 4y ago
    https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/225468/federal-reserve-hikes-but-will-it-cut-in-2023.aspx https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/225468/federal-reserve... - no quite no-one...
  - mywittyname 4y ago
    Maybe I'm delusional, but I think the Fed is raising rates just so they can lower them again. Look at what happened to rates between 16-19. They slowly raised rates in little baby steps, but the moment the 2019 economy started to weeble-wobble, they cut rates almost in half. And when the economy fell over in 2020, they cut rates back down immediately. It took them 3 years to raise rates from 0.13% to 1.70%, but less than a month to go from 1.60% to 0.05% https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...
    - wuliwong 4y ago
      I saw this a couple weeks ago too. This could be the first time in around 40 years that they are able to raise interest rates higher than the previous peak before having to cut them.
neonate 4y ago
https://archive.ph/F7GC2 https://archive.ph/F7GC2
TheRealPomax 4y ago
Fairly paid ones? Or just "jobs" that won't let folks actually afford living in the US?
- sircastor 4y ago
  The jobs are going to be all over the map, literally. Some will pay well, others won’t. I don’t know what is like where you are, but I see ads for entry level jobs at $15-$19/hour everywhere around me. That seems very good. I’ll also note that it seems to me like those jobs aren’t being filled. There still seems to be some power in the worker’s position, though this is all anecdotal.
  - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
    Without knowing where you are, 15 ranges from 'virtual poverty' to 'ok'. 19 isn't much better. 'Very good' sounds like an immense overstatement. For reference, you'd earn the same in most of Europe and have far more security nets.
    - AstralStorm 4y ago
      1:1 converted to Euro, assuming that is a full time job and you live in France or Germany where you might be able to find such a salary, you're almost certainly never owning a home with this job (since it's likely in a big city), and forget about savings. Sometimes even rent might be problematic. It's just above poverty, but still precarious. Quite a chunk below median even. Big Mac adjusted it looks even worse. Meaning, you're not buying stuff either. At least you probably won't go bankrupt from medical bills, for what that's worth.
      - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
        So what are you comparing with? CoL is a far bit higher in many places in the US, safety nets are worse, employee protection is worse, many other things are straight-up worse at that income level in the US. How do you think the US can have a worse median than many European countries while paying far more for skilled labor? Parent says 'very good'. If all you've got going for you as a country is a bit lower house prices / rent while living on virtual poverty, that's not 'very good'. I'm not saying Europe is great, it's comparing a 4 and a 5 on a scale of 10. Both are bad. It's just exemplifying that 'very good' is a gross overstatement, when the US requires far more financial self sufficiency while one is paid the same.
lowkey 4y ago
The devil is in the details. The 528k headline number is misleading, unless you consider part-time/seasonal McJobs equivalent to full-time jobs. Household Survey Full Time -71,000 Part Time +384,000 Multiple Jobs +92,000 source: https://twitter.com/RobertLutherFL/status/1555550702084169731 https://twitter.com/RobertLutherFL/status/155555070208416973...
- legitster 4y ago
  The fed is using the exact same metric to count jobs as they were a year ago, 10 years ago, etc. You can nitpick it all you want but it's a consistent datapoint.
  - lowkey 4y ago
    The fact is that full-time permanent jobs declined by 77k. The bulk of new job creation was in part-time, transient positions that for the most part don't pay enough to sustain people - especially with inflation rampant. The numbers look good, as long as you don't look too closely into the numbers - my point stands. Don't you find it curious that the article fails to mention these details? I do.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      Probably why the markets didn’t completely puke on these numbers.
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        I would hope investors are doing more research than reading short Washington Post articles.
- mint2 4y ago
  384+92 is 476. 384 + 92 - 172 is 304. How does that add up to 528 or are apples and oranges being compared?
- whatinthenote 4y ago
legitster 4y ago
I'm out of the loop. Why are so many people obsessed with trying to prove we're in a recession?
- b0sk 4y ago
  Midterm elections. If we are in a recession it’s easy for the Republican party to take the house.
  - cyberge99 4y ago
    Historically. This year they’re facing multiple headwinds with a twice impeached albatross and the lunatic fringe cannibalizing their own. A recession would certainly give them a “look at that other mess” diversion that all too many loudmouths would gleefully parrot.
  - Server6 4y ago
    Not really. Normal people don't care if we're in a recession or not. They care if they're employed, and maybe to a lesser extent if their purchasing power is decreasing. If I'm working and getting a big raise things are fine. If I'm unemployed or not getting a big raise then something needs to change.
- RappingBoomer 4y ago
  the prices of stocks go up when interest rates go down...wall st controls the media, so the media is trying to persuade us that there is a recession so that the Fed will ease further
- throwaway5959 4y ago
  Because rich people can’t handle middle class people having the upper hand when it comes to employment and wages for even six months.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    It is funny that we can have years and years of crazy increases in prices of land, healthcare, education, etc, but the minute wages at the bottom start going up faster than asset prices, the Fed is concerned about wage inflation and the government is getting ready to pass an "Inflation Reduction Act".
naillo 4y ago
I'm just gonna stop paying attention to any fear predictions the hive mind makes at this point. Jobs getting cut, jobs increasing. No idea what's actually happening but I'm not gonna let myself get emotionally involved with whatever the current fears are.
rdtwo 4y ago
Real jobs or seasonally adjusted jobs? You need to throw out the headline adjusted numbers as they are mostly made up and manipulated
BenFranklin100 4y ago
This is good news and as others have noted, the United States could be in for a good decade of economic growth. To ensure progress however, we need to address two issues: immigration and housing. Our immigration system needs to reformed to allow US college educated students the option to stay in the US. Current programs like the H1B are in need of serious reform and are too dominated by large firms gaming the system, rather than on individuals seeking a better life. Talented, young immigrants with ideas are the lifeblood and energy of US entrepreneurship and deserve a seat at the table. Second, The US needs massive zoning reform. Local politicians representing the private interests of the property and home owner class should not have the power to ban new homes. These bans make it difficult if not impossible for younger people to live near well paying jobs. Zoning also sharply limits economic growth. Enrica Morettj estimated that zoning smothered US growth by 50% over 50 years: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/opinion/housing-regulations-us-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/opinion/housing-regulatio...

49 points by MilnerRoute 4y ago

derbOac 4y ago

This is why there are debates about whether we're in a recession.

Loughla 4y ago
I work at a college; more students than ever are working while going to school. They have jobs, but need something else because they can't afford the life they had just three or four years ago. It's really a weird time.
- ianai 4y ago
  It is weird. Probably too weird for one word like recession to really convey much meaning. There certainly are assets/markets out there that feel/seem over valued. While the globe is still reacting to the pandemic. Stuff was weird after 1918, too. I actually think the changes seen in 1918 were far greater than anything we’ve seen thus far. So maybe the modern economy is a little more stiff with waves (disruptions) taking much longer to cool. Thinking of all the supply chain messiness.
  - AstralStorm 4y ago
    The word to be used is properly called greed. The last attempt to vacuum up money before debt pumped asset bubbles finally burst and the lack of actual economy is globally exposed. There's no economy when things do not sell, after all. Assets that do not sell or produce have no actual long term value, besides the power play of resource denial. Conveniently located housing for people would sort of indirectly produce if the economy still was industrial. Or perhaps R&D based. It isn't, therefore it doesn't. So everything freezes and general populace are serfs, bound by unpayable debt instead of location. Next step is actual serfdom contracts from corporations.
    - ianai 4y ago
      Econs say fiat currency is almost meaningless outside of when it’s actually being traded for goods and services. One way to express the value implied in currency is what a constant amount of it may be converted to across different goods. Or if speaking of difference currencies, how much a known constant good/service costs in the local currency and compare that across currencies. This is the basis for the Economists Big Mac index. So yes, when capital as the aggregate of whatever asset gets hoarded away by few people there is inefficiency. An efficient market looks like every market participant (supply and demand side) having only that marginal amount of resource needed to make their marginal contribution towards the total output. It’s also in no market participants interest to run advertisements since they will sell all they produce and have enough resources to produce all that they can. Like producing construction nails or any other good or service that’s never graced an ad.
- ssully 4y ago
  I would be interested in actual data on if this is an increasing trend or not. When I was in college (graduated in 2015) most of my friends still had a job; be it to pay for school or to fund their weekend drinking activities.
  - Loughla 4y ago
    I think I should've been more specific in my first comment. Significantly more students are working full-time, with a non-significant amount indicating they are working at all. I have data! So at our institution, for the 2019-2020 academic year (most recent relevant data for comparison due to covid changes/temporary layoffs), 23% of our incoming students indicated working at least 36 hours a week, and an additional 52% indicated working between 5 and 35 hours a week. For the upcoming semester, 47% indicated they were working at least 36 hours a week, with an additional 30% indicating they worked 5 to 35 hours a week.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  The data shows this as well. Lots of people are working multiple jobs now
Test0129 4y ago
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Part of me thinks that people are wishing for a recession because they can’t really understand the economy anymore. It has edged past rationality. There seems to be a yearning for a reset where traditional metrics make sense again.

jdhn 4y ago

This is an absurd amount of new jobs. By absurd, I mean that this is leaps and bounds beyond what was predicted. It also means that the Fed isn't going to taper off rate hikes anytime soon. I know that there were some who were predicting that rate hikes were going to stop in 2023, but I'm doubting that if we keep getting numbers like this.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
Agreed, and good thing too. Regardless of what you want to say about recession or not, the US is really well positioned for the next decade relative to other countries.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  This is a sentiment that I'm happy to hear others share. If cards are played right, the USA could experience growth not seen since post-WWII. Inflation is high, but the USD is crushing every other currency. American businesses are fed up with shutdowns and shipping delays from Asia, and are willing to pay the price premium for domestic goods. And the federal government is doing (I think) a good job at pushing industries to capitalize on the global weakness.
  - AstralStorm 4y ago
    Check the structure of these jobs and then we can talk about how it actually will be a boom... Do you see industrial and manufacturing jobs as a major percentage here?
    - pxue 4y ago
      market forces and inflation will force corporations to look for domestic productions. short term pain for long term gain.
      - DuskStar 4y ago
        If the US dollar keeps getting stronger relative to other currencies, it will be better to manufacture things offshore and import them. That is what a strong currency does.

tboyd47 4y ago

Are these new jobs or recently vacant ones?

bombcar 4y ago
From what I've seen, many many companies are still suffering from post-Covid rehiring problems. Airports, restaurants, almost all service industries are severely understaffed and continue to be so. I wonder how many people have decided to permanently leave the workforce - I know a number of families where one parent stopped working during covid and has no plans to return.
- radpanda 4y ago
  This feels like it matches my anecdata as well. Some folks in positions where they have the choice to work or not work are staying on the sidelines. I know a school administrator who retired earlier than planned rather than deal with the madness, I know a college kid who just took the summer off rather than get a summer job, I know a speech therapist turned stay-at-home mom, etc. Rather than a few years ago when people's decision calculus was "do I want to trade my time for $X/hr to do some work?" it feels like it's become "do I want to trade my time for $X/hr AND risk getting myself or family members seriously sick AND deal with unhinged people at a time of political strife?" And sure, the X in $X/hr has gone up, but apparently not enough to convince as many people to wait tables as in 2019.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    A number of friends made a bunch of money from stocks and crypto and decided to quit their jobs and build something of their own. They always had plans to do it but never enough savings to take the leap.
  - shusaku 4y ago
    You can look at the labor force participation rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-parti... But I think controlling for demographic factors would take some work (look at the drop past 2000)

bandyaboot 4y ago

Can we put to bed this belief that the Biden administration is simply gaslighting us when they push back against the utility of the "2 consecutive quarters of negative growth" benchmark for our current economic environment? Seems fairly obvious that we should be questioning how useful that metric is right now.

thesis 4y ago
So you’re advocating that negative gdp growth is the same as positive gdp growth? It’s seems quite advantageous to suddenly change the definition when it slaps you in the face.
- bandyaboot 4y ago
  > So you’re advocating that negative gdp growth is the same as positive gdp growth? I can only assume you must have responded to the wrong comment.
- orwin 4y ago
  One interesting fact is that while GDP/Capita decline, median GDP/Capita doesn't. Maybe our indicator should be median rather than average, if we are really worried about the middle class.
xbar 4y ago
We should question that metric. Also, a little gaslighting. What I mean: if an administration doesn't like a given metric, it should get its replacement metric identified and publicized in advance. It sure looks a lot like gaslighting when the world has an agreed upon metric and you say "just ignore that; look over here."
- bandyaboot 4y ago
  > What I mean: if an administration doesn't like a given metric, it should get its replacement metric identified and publicized in advance. That's assuming that they had a previously existing problem with the metric. But why would they, it's always been a fairly reliable rubber stamp. Economic indicators give consistent bad news for an extended period of time, then months later 2 quarters of GDP numbers have been released and the metric says "yep, that was/this is a recession". But the metric now kind of falls on its face in this strange situation of quite a lot of bad economic indicators paired with a strong jobs market. If we want to rigidly hold to the 2 quarters metric, then we're going to have to accept that "recession" means nothing larger about the economy than "2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth". It just becomes a short way of saying simply that.

bern4444 4y ago

Perhaps this will give the FED the courage to push a full percentage rise in the next meeting instead of 75 bps. Either way, this gives the FED the cover to continue raising rates through next year. Anyone who thinks the FED will lower rates next year is delusional.

ramesh31 4y ago
>Anyone who thinks the FED will lower rates next year is delusional. Literally nobody thinks that.
- amock 4y ago
  https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-in-2023 https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-t...
- raesene9 4y ago
  https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/225468/federal-reserve-hikes-but-will-it-cut-in-2023.aspx https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/225468/federal-reserve... - no quite no-one...
- mywittyname 4y ago
  Maybe I'm delusional, but I think the Fed is raising rates just so they can lower them again. Look at what happened to rates between 16-19. They slowly raised rates in little baby steps, but the moment the 2019 economy started to weeble-wobble, they cut rates almost in half. And when the economy fell over in 2020, they cut rates back down immediately. It took them 3 years to raise rates from 0.13% to 1.70%, but less than a month to go from 1.60% to 0.05% https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...
  - wuliwong 4y ago
    I saw this a couple weeks ago too. This could be the first time in around 40 years that they are able to raise interest rates higher than the previous peak before having to cut them.

neonate 4y ago

https://archive.ph/F7GC2 https://archive.ph/F7GC2

TheRealPomax 4y ago

Fairly paid ones? Or just "jobs" that won't let folks actually afford living in the US?

sircastor 4y ago
The jobs are going to be all over the map, literally. Some will pay well, others won’t. I don’t know what is like where you are, but I see ads for entry level jobs at $15-$19/hour everywhere around me. That seems very good. I’ll also note that it seems to me like those jobs aren’t being filled. There still seems to be some power in the worker’s position, though this is all anecdotal.
- BlargMcLarg 4y ago
  Without knowing where you are, 15 ranges from 'virtual poverty' to 'ok'. 19 isn't much better. 'Very good' sounds like an immense overstatement. For reference, you'd earn the same in most of Europe and have far more security nets.
  - AstralStorm 4y ago
    1:1 converted to Euro, assuming that is a full time job and you live in France or Germany where you might be able to find such a salary, you're almost certainly never owning a home with this job (since it's likely in a big city), and forget about savings. Sometimes even rent might be problematic. It's just above poverty, but still precarious. Quite a chunk below median even. Big Mac adjusted it looks even worse. Meaning, you're not buying stuff either. At least you probably won't go bankrupt from medical bills, for what that's worth.
    - BlargMcLarg 4y ago
      So what are you comparing with? CoL is a far bit higher in many places in the US, safety nets are worse, employee protection is worse, many other things are straight-up worse at that income level in the US. How do you think the US can have a worse median than many European countries while paying far more for skilled labor? Parent says 'very good'. If all you've got going for you as a country is a bit lower house prices / rent while living on virtual poverty, that's not 'very good'. I'm not saying Europe is great, it's comparing a 4 and a 5 on a scale of 10. Both are bad. It's just exemplifying that 'very good' is a gross overstatement, when the US requires far more financial self sufficiency while one is paid the same.

lowkey 4y ago

The devil is in the details. The 528k headline number is misleading, unless you consider part-time/seasonal McJobs equivalent to full-time jobs. Household Survey Full Time -71,000 Part Time +384,000 Multiple Jobs +92,000 source: https://twitter.com/RobertLutherFL/status/1555550702084169731 https://twitter.com/RobertLutherFL/status/155555070208416973...

legitster 4y ago
The fed is using the exact same metric to count jobs as they were a year ago, 10 years ago, etc. You can nitpick it all you want but it's a consistent datapoint.
- lowkey 4y ago
  The fact is that full-time permanent jobs declined by 77k. The bulk of new job creation was in part-time, transient positions that for the most part don't pay enough to sustain people - especially with inflation rampant. The numbers look good, as long as you don't look too closely into the numbers - my point stands. Don't you find it curious that the article fails to mention these details? I do.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    Probably why the markets didn’t completely puke on these numbers.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      I would hope investors are doing more research than reading short Washington Post articles.
mint2 4y ago
384+92 is 476. 384 + 92 - 172 is 304. How does that add up to 528 or are apples and oranges being compared?
whatinthenote 4y ago

legitster 4y ago

I'm out of the loop. Why are so many people obsessed with trying to prove we're in a recession?

b0sk 4y ago
Midterm elections. If we are in a recession it’s easy for the Republican party to take the house.
- cyberge99 4y ago
  Historically. This year they’re facing multiple headwinds with a twice impeached albatross and the lunatic fringe cannibalizing their own. A recession would certainly give them a “look at that other mess” diversion that all too many loudmouths would gleefully parrot.
- Server6 4y ago
  Not really. Normal people don't care if we're in a recession or not. They care if they're employed, and maybe to a lesser extent if their purchasing power is decreasing. If I'm working and getting a big raise things are fine. If I'm unemployed or not getting a big raise then something needs to change.
RappingBoomer 4y ago
the prices of stocks go up when interest rates go down...wall st controls the media, so the media is trying to persuade us that there is a recession so that the Fed will ease further
throwaway5959 4y ago
Because rich people can’t handle middle class people having the upper hand when it comes to employment and wages for even six months.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  It is funny that we can have years and years of crazy increases in prices of land, healthcare, education, etc, but the minute wages at the bottom start going up faster than asset prices, the Fed is concerned about wage inflation and the government is getting ready to pass an "Inflation Reduction Act".

naillo 4y ago

I'm just gonna stop paying attention to any fear predictions the hive mind makes at this point. Jobs getting cut, jobs increasing. No idea what's actually happening but I'm not gonna let myself get emotionally involved with whatever the current fears are.

rdtwo 4y ago

Real jobs or seasonally adjusted jobs? You need to throw out the headline adjusted numbers as they are mostly made up and manipulated

BenFranklin100 4y ago

This is good news and as others have noted, the United States could be in for a good decade of economic growth. To ensure progress however, we need to address two issues: immigration and housing. Our immigration system needs to reformed to allow US college educated students the option to stay in the US. Current programs like the H1B are in need of serious reform and are too dominated by large firms gaming the system, rather than on individuals seeking a better life. Talented, young immigrants with ideas are the lifeblood and energy of US entrepreneurship and deserve a seat at the table. Second, The US needs massive zoning reform. Local politicians representing the private interests of the property and home owner class should not have the power to ban new homes. These bans make it difficult if not impossible for younger people to live near well paying jobs. Zoning also sharply limits economic growth. Enrica Morettj estimated that zoning smothered US growth by 50% over 50 years: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/opinion/housing-regulations-us-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/opinion/housing-regulatio...