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Recession Added 528,000 Jobs in July

14 points by melling 4y ago

belter 4y ago
Editorialized Title. Stock market likely to see it negative due to possible continued rate hike by the FED. Also...Needs further investigation. A Recession could cause persons not likely to look for jobs, like for example a recent mother who decided to focus on raising kids, or a student, to look for a job. Maybe inflation would cause the household to not cope with bills anymore, if just one member of the household has a job.
- lumost 4y ago
  Alternately, we are seeing a rebalance between wages and capital returns. Comparable periods would include 1940s America.
- theklr 4y ago
  This is being dictated by companies who don’t quite have their own compass and seem to follow whatever X CEO(s) are doing. The fact that majority of these startups were dumb enough to ramp up growth with everyone locked in to only consume shows how much business just seem like going through the motions than actually knowing their business, knowing the market, and properly navigating. Then again they’re all pleasing investors more than creating a sustainable (not always necessarily “record” profitable) businesses.
BigJ1211 4y ago
Calling something a recession whilst unemployment is incredibly low (3,5% in the US, 3,4% here in the Netherlands) seems quite silly. I'm not sure what to call it at the moment, but it's hard to compare to previous recessions. I'm at least a lot less worried about it. Additionaly wages seem to be a lot higher than they've been for a long time for what was previously low wage work.
- mynameishere 4y ago
  Yes, using the correct definitions of words is very silly, especially when it is politically inconvenient. Very, very silly.
  - bumby 4y ago
    What is the correct definition?
    - kspacewalk2 4y ago
      The correct technical definition in the UK an Canada (and possibly other countries) is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. By that definition, the US is in a recession, case closed. But this definition is not widely used in the US. So its "correctness" is geographically dependent.
      - bumby 4y ago
        >By that definition, the US is in a recession, case closed. That's like saying "Your physical health is defined by your BMI, case closed." NBER has published work going back 40 years that demonstrates why a simplistic measurement of contraction duration is flawed.[1] Just like your physical health, economic health should really be measured holistically across different aspects. [1] https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/business-cycles-inflation-and-forecasting-2nd-edition/what-recession https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/business-cycles-infl...
        mikhailt 4y ago
        The fact the BMI is determined by a "simple" formula doesn't change the merit of the original statement. If an insurance company uses BMI to determine your physical health, then yes, it is case closed. It doesn't matter how unrealistic it is, it doesn't matter what any research has shown. It is based on a strict definition set by the insurance company that defined how it is calculated. If a different company wants to use a different approach, then they're free to do so, no one is forced to use BMI to calculate their health. However, if we want to determine if a country is in recession by comparing to a specific country's definition of recession, which is what the OP just did, then the case is closed (by that definition). > Just like your physical health, economic health should really be measured holistically across different aspects. Unfortunately, the world and people that live in it doesn't work like this. A lot of people like simple calculations even if it is wrong, outdated or not realistic. It's easier for people to say recession is determined by two quarters of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. A few countries use this as mentioned by the OP. It is case closed by this specific _strict definition_ of what a recession is.
ortusdux 4y ago
Actual headline: "Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market"
Proven 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

14 points by melling 4y ago

Editorialized Title. Stock market likely to see it negative due to possible continued rate hike by the FED. Also...Needs further investigation. A Recession could cause persons not likely to look for jobs, like for example a recent mother who decided to focus on raising kids, or a student, to look for a job. Maybe inflation would cause the household to not cope with bills anymore, if just one member of the household has a job.

lumost 4y ago
Alternately, we are seeing a rebalance between wages and capital returns. Comparable periods would include 1940s America.
theklr 4y ago
This is being dictated by companies who don’t quite have their own compass and seem to follow whatever X CEO(s) are doing. The fact that majority of these startups were dumb enough to ramp up growth with everyone locked in to only consume shows how much business just seem like going through the motions than actually knowing their business, knowing the market, and properly navigating. Then again they’re all pleasing investors more than creating a sustainable (not always necessarily “record” profitable) businesses.

BigJ1211 4y ago

Calling something a recession whilst unemployment is incredibly low (3,5% in the US, 3,4% here in the Netherlands) seems quite silly. I'm not sure what to call it at the moment, but it's hard to compare to previous recessions. I'm at least a lot less worried about it. Additionaly wages seem to be a lot higher than they've been for a long time for what was previously low wage work.

mynameishere 4y ago
Yes, using the correct definitions of words is very silly, especially when it is politically inconvenient. Very, very silly.
- bumby 4y ago
  What is the correct definition?
  - kspacewalk2 4y ago
    The correct technical definition in the UK an Canada (and possibly other countries) is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. By that definition, the US is in a recession, case closed. But this definition is not widely used in the US. So its "correctness" is geographically dependent.
    - bumby 4y ago
      >By that definition, the US is in a recession, case closed. That's like saying "Your physical health is defined by your BMI, case closed." NBER has published work going back 40 years that demonstrates why a simplistic measurement of contraction duration is flawed.[1] Just like your physical health, economic health should really be measured holistically across different aspects. [1] https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/business-cycles-inflation-and-forecasting-2nd-edition/what-recession https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/business-cycles-infl...
      - mikhailt 4y ago
        The fact the BMI is determined by a "simple" formula doesn't change the merit of the original statement. If an insurance company uses BMI to determine your physical health, then yes, it is case closed. It doesn't matter how unrealistic it is, it doesn't matter what any research has shown. It is based on a strict definition set by the insurance company that defined how it is calculated. If a different company wants to use a different approach, then they're free to do so, no one is forced to use BMI to calculate their health. However, if we want to determine if a country is in recession by comparing to a specific country's definition of recession, which is what the OP just did, then the case is closed (by that definition). > Just like your physical health, economic health should really be measured holistically across different aspects. Unfortunately, the world and people that live in it doesn't work like this. A lot of people like simple calculations even if it is wrong, outdated or not realistic. It's easier for people to say recession is determined by two quarters of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. A few countries use this as mentioned by the OP. It is case closed by this specific _strict definition_ of what a recession is.

ortusdux 4y ago

Actual headline: "Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market"

Proven 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]