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Intel is in big trouble and the only card they have left is the nationalism card. And that card is for losers. We are about to enter a silicon slump with low d

Intel is in big trouble and the only card they have left is the nationalism card. And that card is for losers. We are about to enter a silicon slump with low demand and oversupply; for Intel things will get worse. What will happen when it is clear to everyone including politicians that all that subsidy money is going into a black hole? And people finally figure out that a rocket that blows up stuff doesn't need a 2nm chip? They are going to lose interest and those subsidies that is Intel's last hope will end.

dash2 4y ago
> Intel is in big trouble and the only card they have left is the nationalism card. And that card is for losers. No. It's 2022 not 2006. That card will win big, and deserves to.
groby_b 4y ago
"We are about to enter a silicon slump with low demand and oversupply" What causes you to assume that? "What will happen [if...] people finally figure out that a rocket that blows up stuff doesn't need a 2nm chip?" One, they'll learn that we're not doing too hot on custom chip fabs in general? They'll also, if they're really that dense, learn that we need chips for a few more things than to make things go boom. (FWIW, they're not that dense.) "They are going to lose interest and those subsidies that is Intel's last hope will end." Even if the rest of your statements were correct (and I don't think they are), that is absolutely not how subsidies work. Local subsidies translate to local jobs translate to votes. Keeping them running is rather important to politicians. So, no, "lose interest" is not exactly the most likely failure mode here.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  > What causes you to assume that? Companies have been filling their stockpiling, and anticipating years of demand so they have a safety buffer for many months already. It's natural that this is followed by low demand. At the same time, the world seems to be entering a recession.
- est 4y ago
  > What causes you to assume that? Those 2nm 5nm 7nm shit has been driven by people's need for new mobile phones, and people are getting tired of buying new phone every year without much persuading new features. Also cryptocurrency mining has lost its momentum, lots of networks will switch to PoS to replace the CPU/GPU hungry hashing.
- JonChesterfield 4y ago
  This one seems to have translated into dividends while intel posts substantial losses.
hotpotamus 4y ago
I've read that the problems with chips for cars are actually old processes (greater than 100nm) that are commodity and so no one really cares to make them and the equipment has one foot in the grave and such, so I don't think anyone cares too much about putting chips into rockets since that stuff was figured out awhile ago. My perception of national defense types is somewhat influenced by reading their press stuff and somewhat influenced by General Buck Turgidson from Dr Strangelove. He would say, "We must not have a $weapon gap!" (missiles, mineshafts, whatever he perceived to be in the national interest at the moment). And today, what occupies the minds of these types is AI which means latest gen chips and problems with pesky nerds and their ethical considerations. They greatly fear that China has surpassed the US in AI and has us outgunned. To be fair to them, AI could certainly be a potent weapon, but I have no idea how their perceptions of China reflect reality.

dash2 4y ago

> Intel is in big trouble and the only card they have left is the nationalism card. And that card is for losers. No. It's 2022 not 2006. That card will win big, and deserves to.

groby_b 4y ago

"We are about to enter a silicon slump with low demand and oversupply" What causes you to assume that? "What will happen [if...] people finally figure out that a rocket that blows up stuff doesn't need a 2nm chip?" One, they'll learn that we're not doing too hot on custom chip fabs in general? They'll also, if they're really that dense, learn that we need chips for a few more things than to make things go boom. (FWIW, they're not that dense.) "They are going to lose interest and those subsidies that is Intel's last hope will end." Even if the rest of your statements were correct (and I don't think they are), that is absolutely not how subsidies work. Local subsidies translate to local jobs translate to votes. Keeping them running is rather important to politicians. So, no, "lose interest" is not exactly the most likely failure mode here.

marcosdumay 4y ago
> What causes you to assume that? Companies have been filling their stockpiling, and anticipating years of demand so they have a safety buffer for many months already. It's natural that this is followed by low demand. At the same time, the world seems to be entering a recession.
est 4y ago
> What causes you to assume that? Those 2nm 5nm 7nm shit has been driven by people's need for new mobile phones, and people are getting tired of buying new phone every year without much persuading new features. Also cryptocurrency mining has lost its momentum, lots of networks will switch to PoS to replace the CPU/GPU hungry hashing.
JonChesterfield 4y ago
This one seems to have translated into dividends while intel posts substantial losses.

hotpotamus 4y ago

I've read that the problems with chips for cars are actually old processes (greater than 100nm) that are commodity and so no one really cares to make them and the equipment has one foot in the grave and such, so I don't think anyone cares too much about putting chips into rockets since that stuff was figured out awhile ago. My perception of national defense types is somewhat influenced by reading their press stuff and somewhat influenced by General Buck Turgidson from Dr Strangelove. He would say, "We must not have a $weapon gap!" (missiles, mineshafts, whatever he perceived to be in the national interest at the moment). And today, what occupies the minds of these types is AI which means latest gen chips and problems with pesky nerds and their ethical considerations. They greatly fear that China has surpassed the US in AI and has us outgunned. To be fair to them, AI could certainly be a potent weapon, but I have no idea how their perceptions of China reflect reality.