7 ms·

> 60% of people are actively rooting for their country to do worse whenever their guy is not in charge. What are you basing this statement on? No way is it 60%

> 60% of people are actively rooting for their country to do worse whenever their guy is not in charge. What are you basing this statement on? No way is it 60%, more like 6% of the population, but perhaps 0.6%! Whatever it is the voices you hear are a tiny slither of the population skewed to the most disagreeable and combative end of the personality spectrum. So, unless you’ve done some world class polling to determine the answer to that then I’d suggest gaining more perspective.

president 4y ago
Doesn't matter what the actual number is if that is our perception, whether that is because of media or peer/cultural influence.
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  - nameistaken 4y ago
  - danny_taco 4y ago
    You talk about the figures being meaningful, while you seem to be making up numbers of your own.
    - zmgsabst 4y ago
      - mxkopy 4y ago
        >and the rest hate it. Source?
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Corporations “went Woke” because they misperceived that as having popular support while only 8-10% of people supported it — and the rest hate it. > That misperception has lost hundreds of billions in shareholder value, adding up just Disney, Warner, and Netflix. How so? Do any of those companies have competitors who didn't "go woke," and are now profiting off their missteps? Those companies may have lost a ton of value, but I don't think it's because of that cause. > Democrat politicians seem to have similarly misperceived — and now are facing widespread public backlash to their policy. But that may not matter. They're also cultivating a backlash against Republicans, hoping that will counter any backlash against them. IMHO, in our political moment, the major parties don't even try to make the middle happy; they try to make the middle mad at the other guys, so they can coddle their respective activist bases. This is why "democracy all the things" is kind of a shitty system. Primaries push the adults out of the room and give extremists too much say, which then requires toxic behavior to salvage an overall victory.
    - zmgsabst 4y ago
      Yes — imported and independent media have done well over that same period. They’re literally setting records. You can also compare within a single studio, such as Prime Video: why did Reacher and Terminal List succeed where Wheel of Time and Rings of Power did not? Edit: > IMHO, in our political moment, the major parties don't event try to make the middle happy; they try to make the middle mad at the other guys, so they can coddle their activist bases. I agree.
      - ssully 4y ago
        "Why did two military thriller TV series succeed when two fantasy TV series (one of which isn't even out yet) did not?". Seems like a lot of competing factors here chief!
      - kirankp89 4y ago
        Just wanted to point out that Wheel of Time is one of Amazon’s most popular shows ever and Rings of Power isn’t out yet. Struck me as an odd comparison.
      - 4y ago
  - ratww 4y ago
    The "rest" that hates it is also a very vocal minority, probably even less than the 8-10%. Most people don't give a shit about it. Assuming the rest does is heavy projection.
    - namelessoracle 4y ago
      - ratww 4y ago
        AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
        ratww 4y ago
        AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
        ratww 4y ago
        AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
        ratww 4y ago
        No, your point is that unless I completely agree with you about some specific voting demographics that happens to be a pet theory of yours, then I'm wrong about something completely unrelated. Seems like you're knee deep in this shit and projecting your views in an entire country.
  - groby_b 4y ago
    Dude. Take off the political glasses. Disney lost value because it's mismanaged by a horrible CEO, and hasn't produced anything meaningful outside of Marvel and Star Wars since forever. Add to that a struggling parks business in general, combined with epic mismanagement around "maybe we should just target people who want $5K hotel rooms and $2K drinks", and... here we are. Netflix, similarly, suffers from self-inflicted wounds. Their struggling attempts to monetize account sharing are a much too late financial attempt to paper over the fact that their auth system is... not so good. Mildly put. Their content content has taken a deep turn towards "reality" schlock after they so brilliantly ousted Cindy Holland (who was responsible for bringing good content) while elevating Bela Bajaria (the king of garbage shows). Those shows play well on social media, but they do shit all for the bottom line. It's not "went woke", it's "leaned into incompetence". The same holds true on the political side. A large chunk of the recession rests firmly on politicians who completely and utterly fucked up the handling of the pandemic. Republicans and Democrats both. Different flavors of incompetence, but... it was a shit show either way.
    - hammock 4y ago
      >hasn't produced anything meaningful outside of Marvel and Star Wars since forever. AKA only the most profitable franchises of all time…
      - swores 4y ago
        Which is why they're not doing as well as they should be, rather than literally crashing and burning. At their size having two great franchises isn't good enough if everything else is absolute shit (not that I'm saying it is all shit, just that those two alone can't carry the stock market's expectation of more than just those two succeeding).
      - andsoitis 4y ago
        Disney stock is down over the last 5 years. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/
        4y ago
  - PenguinCoder 4y ago
    > has lost hundreds of billions in shareholder value Who gives a shit about useless thieves with no ability to actually produce or do anything worthwhile??! Fuck the 'shareholders value'. We need to do more for and pay the PEOPLE better, who get things done. Ya know, the actual workers. All that a 'shareholder' does is extract money/value from other peoples hard work.
  - frumper 4y ago
    My in-law told us they were boycotting Disney for political reasons. A few months later we wanted to respect their choices so we asked her what our nephew would like for his birthday and she told us he's into The Mandalorian and Marvel.
- AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
  It feels many people responding to you are misunderstanding your point - and it's a very good one. The medium is the message. Everybody should read McLuhan if they work in the technology space. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message
ajross 4y ago
> What are you basing this statement on? The number was clearly just rhetoric. The point is that a very large number of people view data like this as "good news" for their team. So rather than have reasonable discussions about e.g. why this is likely just an echo of the covid response/recovery combined with geopolitical disruption to supply chains... we have a bunch of doomsayers in every thread yelling about how this is clearly not transient and how we're entering a new era of stagflation, etc... It's just tiresome.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  It's pretty poor rhetoric to claim a majority when you actually mean a tiny minority
- leereeves 4y ago
  And people who see stagflation as bad news for their team are still denying it, more than a year after the Fed first claimed it was transitory. Let me ask this: what would convince you?
  - ajross 4y ago
    > Let me ask this: what would convince you? Continued inflation. But absent that I'm going to stick with the obvious hypothesis that the external forcing from slightly overgenerous pandemic relief, late-pandemic shutdown of Shanghai and most of Chinese output for two months, (edit: also automotive/heavy industry production shortfalls due to "chip shortage") and the removal of one of the biggest petroleum and gas exporters from the world market did what you'd expect those things to do. You can go farther and look at what sectors are seeing inflation and what aren't and see more evidence for this, FWIW. But yeah, if we come back in another 18 months and are still at 8% YoY inflation, then that hypothesis will have been wrong. Wanna take that bet?
    - leereeves 4y ago
      No, I think it will likely be over by then, because the era of easy money is ending: > If [St. Louis Federal Reserve President James] Bullard has his way, the rate will continue rising to a range of 3.75%-4% by the end of the year. After starting 2022 near zero, the rate has now come up to a range of 2.25%-2.5%.[1] While at the same time, fiscal policy is tightening. The "slightly" overgenerous Covid aid is over and the President is likely to get only a fraction of his $3.5 trillion dollar dream program. And eventually OPEC will probably increase oil production, as Biden asked them to [2]; or Biden will change his stance on increasing US production. (BTW, Russia hasn't been removed from the market. Their exports have only fallen about 15% since the invasion [3], which is easily compensated for. The fact that producers haven't increased production has a lot to do with Biden.) But a return to sound fiscal policy and practical oil policy won't reverse the damage of two years of inflation and slow or negative growth. 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/feds-bullard-sees-more-interest-rate-hikes-ahead-and-no-us-recession.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/feds-bullard-sees-more-inter... 2: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/03/energy/joe-biden-saudi-trip-opec-analysis/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/03/energy/joe-biden-saudi-trip-o... 3: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Exports-Have-Stabilized-Revenues-Steady.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-O...
tablespoon 4y ago
>> 60% of people are actively rooting for their country to do worse whenever their guy is not in charge. > What are you basing this statement on? No way is it 60%, more like 6% of the population, but perhaps 0.6%! I think what he probably meant was 30% at any given time, and in my rough estimation, he actually might be right. It's the difference between feeling that way, and being loud about it on Twitter. I mean, can you imagine a committed liberal wanting the country to do better under a conservative politician with conservative policies? No, of course not, they want liberal policies. So they want the conservative to fail, and the country to do worse as a result, so the electorate will be unhappy and vote for a liberal next time. Then they can get their preferred liberal policies.
- leereeves 4y ago
  There are others who are actively rooting for the country to do better, so much so that they'll deny reality to make it seem so. No, it's not a pandemic. No, it's not a recession. But can't we do better here on HN, and discuss the state of the economy without petty partisan arguments?
  - colpabar 4y ago
    You forgot "no, he's not the president, he's a russian plant"
    - archagon 4y ago
- koheripbal 4y ago
  Social media partisanship, when juiced by foreign influence campaigns, not only alter the online conversation - they make it impossible to know the "real" sentiment in the country. Too many news media outlets start their daily reporting from "what's trending on twitter", not appreciating the degree to which those trends are being pushed by malicious parties (both foreign and domestic), and in no way represent the real dialogue Americans are having. The FBI has published numerous reports on explicit online influence campaigns carried out by foreign organizations attempting to polarize US domestic online dialogues. ...and they do this be radicalizing the conversations on both sides.
benreesman 4y ago
By some measures, GP is understating the problem [0]. inb4 someone calls the journalist or researcher or whatever a partisan shill/troll/hack. Feel that reflex? We’re pretty good about not acting on it here, but this is a fairly special place. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/alarming-us-partisan-divide/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/alarming-...

president 4y ago

Doesn't matter what the actual number is if that is our perception, whether that is because of media or peer/cultural influence.

zmgsabst 4y ago
- nameistaken 4y ago
- danny_taco 4y ago
  You talk about the figures being meaningful, while you seem to be making up numbers of your own.
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    - mxkopy 4y ago
      >and the rest hate it. Source?
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Corporations “went Woke” because they misperceived that as having popular support while only 8-10% of people supported it — and the rest hate it. > That misperception has lost hundreds of billions in shareholder value, adding up just Disney, Warner, and Netflix. How so? Do any of those companies have competitors who didn't "go woke," and are now profiting off their missteps? Those companies may have lost a ton of value, but I don't think it's because of that cause. > Democrat politicians seem to have similarly misperceived — and now are facing widespread public backlash to their policy. But that may not matter. They're also cultivating a backlash against Republicans, hoping that will counter any backlash against them. IMHO, in our political moment, the major parties don't even try to make the middle happy; they try to make the middle mad at the other guys, so they can coddle their respective activist bases. This is why "democracy all the things" is kind of a shitty system. Primaries push the adults out of the room and give extremists too much say, which then requires toxic behavior to salvage an overall victory.
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    Yes — imported and independent media have done well over that same period. They’re literally setting records. You can also compare within a single studio, such as Prime Video: why did Reacher and Terminal List succeed where Wheel of Time and Rings of Power did not? Edit: > IMHO, in our political moment, the major parties don't event try to make the middle happy; they try to make the middle mad at the other guys, so they can coddle their activist bases. I agree.
    - ssully 4y ago
      "Why did two military thriller TV series succeed when two fantasy TV series (one of which isn't even out yet) did not?". Seems like a lot of competing factors here chief!
    - kirankp89 4y ago
      Just wanted to point out that Wheel of Time is one of Amazon’s most popular shows ever and Rings of Power isn’t out yet. Struck me as an odd comparison.
    - 4y ago
- ratww 4y ago
  The "rest" that hates it is also a very vocal minority, probably even less than the 8-10%. Most people don't give a shit about it. Assuming the rest does is heavy projection.
  - namelessoracle 4y ago
    - ratww 4y ago
      - AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
        ratww 4y ago
        AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
        ratww 4y ago
        AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
        ratww 4y ago
        No, your point is that unless I completely agree with you about some specific voting demographics that happens to be a pet theory of yours, then I'm wrong about something completely unrelated. Seems like you're knee deep in this shit and projecting your views in an entire country.
- groby_b 4y ago
  Dude. Take off the political glasses. Disney lost value because it's mismanaged by a horrible CEO, and hasn't produced anything meaningful outside of Marvel and Star Wars since forever. Add to that a struggling parks business in general, combined with epic mismanagement around "maybe we should just target people who want $5K hotel rooms and $2K drinks", and... here we are. Netflix, similarly, suffers from self-inflicted wounds. Their struggling attempts to monetize account sharing are a much too late financial attempt to paper over the fact that their auth system is... not so good. Mildly put. Their content content has taken a deep turn towards "reality" schlock after they so brilliantly ousted Cindy Holland (who was responsible for bringing good content) while elevating Bela Bajaria (the king of garbage shows). Those shows play well on social media, but they do shit all for the bottom line. It's not "went woke", it's "leaned into incompetence". The same holds true on the political side. A large chunk of the recession rests firmly on politicians who completely and utterly fucked up the handling of the pandemic. Republicans and Democrats both. Different flavors of incompetence, but... it was a shit show either way.
  - hammock 4y ago
    >hasn't produced anything meaningful outside of Marvel and Star Wars since forever. AKA only the most profitable franchises of all time…
    - swores 4y ago
      Which is why they're not doing as well as they should be, rather than literally crashing and burning. At their size having two great franchises isn't good enough if everything else is absolute shit (not that I'm saying it is all shit, just that those two alone can't carry the stock market's expectation of more than just those two succeeding).
    - andsoitis 4y ago
      Disney stock is down over the last 5 years. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/
      - 4y ago
- PenguinCoder 4y ago
  > has lost hundreds of billions in shareholder value Who gives a shit about useless thieves with no ability to actually produce or do anything worthwhile??! Fuck the 'shareholders value'. We need to do more for and pay the PEOPLE better, who get things done. Ya know, the actual workers. All that a 'shareholder' does is extract money/value from other peoples hard work.
- frumper 4y ago
  My in-law told us they were boycotting Disney for political reasons. A few months later we wanted to respect their choices so we asked her what our nephew would like for his birthday and she told us he's into The Mandalorian and Marvel.
AndrewUnmuted 4y ago
It feels many people responding to you are misunderstanding your point - and it's a very good one. The medium is the message. Everybody should read McLuhan if they work in the technology space. [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message

ajross 4y ago

> What are you basing this statement on? The number was clearly just rhetoric. The point is that a very large number of people view data like this as "good news" for their team. So rather than have reasonable discussions about e.g. why this is likely just an echo of the covid response/recovery combined with geopolitical disruption to supply chains... we have a bunch of doomsayers in every thread yelling about how this is clearly not transient and how we're entering a new era of stagflation, etc... It's just tiresome.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
It's pretty poor rhetoric to claim a majority when you actually mean a tiny minority
leereeves 4y ago
And people who see stagflation as bad news for their team are still denying it, more than a year after the Fed first claimed it was transitory. Let me ask this: what would convince you?
- ajross 4y ago
  > Let me ask this: what would convince you? Continued inflation. But absent that I'm going to stick with the obvious hypothesis that the external forcing from slightly overgenerous pandemic relief, late-pandemic shutdown of Shanghai and most of Chinese output for two months, (edit: also automotive/heavy industry production shortfalls due to "chip shortage") and the removal of one of the biggest petroleum and gas exporters from the world market did what you'd expect those things to do. You can go farther and look at what sectors are seeing inflation and what aren't and see more evidence for this, FWIW. But yeah, if we come back in another 18 months and are still at 8% YoY inflation, then that hypothesis will have been wrong. Wanna take that bet?
  - leereeves 4y ago
    No, I think it will likely be over by then, because the era of easy money is ending: > If [St. Louis Federal Reserve President James] Bullard has his way, the rate will continue rising to a range of 3.75%-4% by the end of the year. After starting 2022 near zero, the rate has now come up to a range of 2.25%-2.5%.[1] While at the same time, fiscal policy is tightening. The "slightly" overgenerous Covid aid is over and the President is likely to get only a fraction of his $3.5 trillion dollar dream program. And eventually OPEC will probably increase oil production, as Biden asked them to [2]; or Biden will change his stance on increasing US production. (BTW, Russia hasn't been removed from the market. Their exports have only fallen about 15% since the invasion [3], which is easily compensated for. The fact that producers haven't increased production has a lot to do with Biden.) But a return to sound fiscal policy and practical oil policy won't reverse the damage of two years of inflation and slow or negative growth. 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/feds-bullard-sees-more-interest-rate-hikes-ahead-and-no-us-recession.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/feds-bullard-sees-more-inter... 2: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/03/energy/joe-biden-saudi-trip-opec-analysis/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/03/energy/joe-biden-saudi-trip-o... 3: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Exports-Have-Stabilized-Revenues-Steady.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-O...

tablespoon 4y ago

>> 60% of people are actively rooting for their country to do worse whenever their guy is not in charge. > What are you basing this statement on? No way is it 60%, more like 6% of the population, but perhaps 0.6%! I think what he probably meant was 30% at any given time, and in my rough estimation, he actually might be right. It's the difference between feeling that way, and being loud about it on Twitter. I mean, can you imagine a committed liberal wanting the country to do better under a conservative politician with conservative policies? No, of course not, they want liberal policies. So they want the conservative to fail, and the country to do worse as a result, so the electorate will be unhappy and vote for a liberal next time. Then they can get their preferred liberal policies.

leereeves 4y ago
There are others who are actively rooting for the country to do better, so much so that they'll deny reality to make it seem so. No, it's not a pandemic. No, it's not a recession. But can't we do better here on HN, and discuss the state of the economy without petty partisan arguments?
- colpabar 4y ago
  You forgot "no, he's not the president, he's a russian plant"
  - archagon 4y ago
koheripbal 4y ago
Social media partisanship, when juiced by foreign influence campaigns, not only alter the online conversation - they make it impossible to know the "real" sentiment in the country. Too many news media outlets start their daily reporting from "what's trending on twitter", not appreciating the degree to which those trends are being pushed by malicious parties (both foreign and domestic), and in no way represent the real dialogue Americans are having. The FBI has published numerous reports on explicit online influence campaigns carried out by foreign organizations attempting to polarize US domestic online dialogues. ...and they do this be radicalizing the conversations on both sides.

benreesman 4y ago

By some measures, GP is understating the problem [0]. inb4 someone calls the journalist or researcher or whatever a partisan shill/troll/hack. Feel that reflex? We’re pretty good about not acting on it here, but this is a fairly special place. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/alarming-us-partisan-divide/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/25/alarming-...