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I don't understand the debate around this. If the proverbial groundhog sees its shadow and Joe Biden agrees that we're in a recession, and then the press wing

I don't understand the debate around this. If the proverbial groundhog sees its shadow and Joe Biden agrees that we're in a recession, and then the press wing of the party starts agreeing that we're in a recession: who cares? Won't they just say it was the previous administrations fault anyway, and that we need to do things like pass the "inflation reduction act" to stop it?

scottLobster 4y ago
You think political/economic debates always have to be productive? :) Yeah it's a rather academic point. I guess some people like to actively rotate their portfolios as if their concerns about recession aren't already priced in. Otherwise you can make broad assumptions about what kind of job opportunities may exist over the next two years, how your company might do in a recession, etc and position yourself a little better. Perhaps it's not the right time to go for a risky consumer-facing startup, stuff like that. For my part seeing all the supply shocks, and the fact that the Fed might pivot to combat a serious recession, caused me to a sign a two year lease to lock-in a lower rate, as I believe we're not done with inflation yet.
- thepasswordis 4y ago
  But none of that should be related to the presidents current opinion.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    It does have an impact on tax and budget policy - something the president is directly involved in. If deficit spending is driving up the cost of living for most Americans, is now a good time to do it. If Most Americans are having more trouble paying their bills, should we increase government spending.
matwood 4y ago
> Won't they just say it was the previous administrations fault anyway Given the timescale for large economic changes (excluding something like a covid shock), it's almost always the prior admins fault - both good and bad.
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  Or in many cases, it's well outside of the control of an administration. A clairvoyant federal reserve could have lowered interest rates sooner which would have been helpful, but they couldn't do much to prevent COVID and the war in Ukraine from reducing supply.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
The charitable interpretation is people want the president to do something about it, and he first must admit it exists. Imagine the frustration if your house were on fire and the fireman is telling you that nothing is wrong.
- SantalBlush 4y ago
  It's more like debating whether the house meets the definition of a "blaze" or not. We all see the fire, we all have access to the relevant economic indicators. With regard to the "people want the president to do something about it" interpretation, no they don't. Anything Biden uses from fiscal toolbox would draw even more complaints. The people complaining don't even have suggestions.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    I think that is an amazingly cynical take. You think that people knowingly want their lives to be worse to spite Biden? If Biden could wave a magic wand and make everyone rich with no ill effects, you think people would say no? I think just about everyone wants what they think is best for their family and children.
    - SantalBlush 4y ago
      Nope, that is a non sequitur. I'm saying that any intervention applied by this administration would be met with criticism by these aforementioned people. >If Biden could wave a magic wand and make everyone rich with no ill effects, you think people would say no? That isn't how this works at all. They wouldn't say no, they would instead reject your premise that Biden could achieve it. If Biden intervened today and they got rich tomorrow or next year, they could still deny that it was his administration's doing and exclaim that (for example) it was the former administration's policies finally taking effect.
NineStarPoint 4y ago
On a technical level yes. Recessions are almost always at least the previous admins fault, often times the last two or three admins fault. (Or sometimes it’s the fault of no administration at all. You can argue that Covid+Russian war were just outside factors to the US that would have left us in a recession even with ideal handleing) Politically it matters because, generaly speaking, people will blame the current admin anyway and vote against them for us being in a recession.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  It also matters because even if the causes of recession are baked into the pie, what is done in the current day determines how the country will respond or recover from that recession. There is a lot more to the world than allocating blame. For example identifying problems and solutions for those problems.

scottLobster 4y ago

You think political/economic debates always have to be productive? :) Yeah it's a rather academic point. I guess some people like to actively rotate their portfolios as if their concerns about recession aren't already priced in. Otherwise you can make broad assumptions about what kind of job opportunities may exist over the next two years, how your company might do in a recession, etc and position yourself a little better. Perhaps it's not the right time to go for a risky consumer-facing startup, stuff like that. For my part seeing all the supply shocks, and the fact that the Fed might pivot to combat a serious recession, caused me to a sign a two year lease to lock-in a lower rate, as I believe we're not done with inflation yet.

thepasswordis 4y ago
But none of that should be related to the presidents current opinion.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  It does have an impact on tax and budget policy - something the president is directly involved in. If deficit spending is driving up the cost of living for most Americans, is now a good time to do it. If Most Americans are having more trouble paying their bills, should we increase government spending.

matwood 4y ago

> Won't they just say it was the previous administrations fault anyway Given the timescale for large economic changes (excluding something like a covid shock), it's almost always the prior admins fault - both good and bad.

throwaway894345 4y ago
Or in many cases, it's well outside of the control of an administration. A clairvoyant federal reserve could have lowered interest rates sooner which would have been helpful, but they couldn't do much to prevent COVID and the war in Ukraine from reducing supply.

s1artibartfast 4y ago

The charitable interpretation is people want the president to do something about it, and he first must admit it exists. Imagine the frustration if your house were on fire and the fireman is telling you that nothing is wrong.

SantalBlush 4y ago
It's more like debating whether the house meets the definition of a "blaze" or not. We all see the fire, we all have access to the relevant economic indicators. With regard to the "people want the president to do something about it" interpretation, no they don't. Anything Biden uses from fiscal toolbox would draw even more complaints. The people complaining don't even have suggestions.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  I think that is an amazingly cynical take. You think that people knowingly want their lives to be worse to spite Biden? If Biden could wave a magic wand and make everyone rich with no ill effects, you think people would say no? I think just about everyone wants what they think is best for their family and children.
  - SantalBlush 4y ago
    Nope, that is a non sequitur. I'm saying that any intervention applied by this administration would be met with criticism by these aforementioned people. >If Biden could wave a magic wand and make everyone rich with no ill effects, you think people would say no? That isn't how this works at all. They wouldn't say no, they would instead reject your premise that Biden could achieve it. If Biden intervened today and they got rich tomorrow or next year, they could still deny that it was his administration's doing and exclaim that (for example) it was the former administration's policies finally taking effect.

NineStarPoint 4y ago

On a technical level yes. Recessions are almost always at least the previous admins fault, often times the last two or three admins fault. (Or sometimes it’s the fault of no administration at all. You can argue that Covid+Russian war were just outside factors to the US that would have left us in a recession even with ideal handleing) Politically it matters because, generaly speaking, people will blame the current admin anyway and vote against them for us being in a recession.

s1artibartfast 4y ago
It also matters because even if the causes of recession are baked into the pie, what is done in the current day determines how the country will respond or recover from that recession. There is a lot more to the world than allocating blame. For example identifying problems and solutions for those problems.