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In order for this to work, we need to understand why the US and Japan are behind Taiwan in this technology in the first place. For TSMC, as a foundry, their val

In order for this to work, we need to understand why the US and Japan are behind Taiwan in this technology in the first place. For TSMC, as a foundry, their value is maximized by their ability to fabricate devices that semiconductor design companies cannot fabricate themselves. Intel and Toshiba apparently don't see cutting edge device scale as a differentiator and so far haven't invested (enough) in matching TSMC in that arena. There is very little chance, IMHO, that establishing and funding an independent organization to pursue 2nm will yield the desired results. Providing funding tranched on a results basis to existing firms stands a much better chance, provided that they are permitted to pursue 2 nm fabrication without sharing what they've learned, so they gain the benefit of the effort. If that were the approach, I don't see why the US and Japan need to collaborate at all. Seems more like narrative-supporting publicity than anything else. Ugh.

R0b0t1 4y ago
Those companies sold American manufacturing overseas and are now demanding money to bring it back. I like the idea of an independent organization, though I'm not sure it will succeed.
mytailorisrich 4y ago
TSMC is strategic for Taiwan. This is a big part of what makes them 'useful' and worth protecting. On the other hand the US (and Japan, and others) seem to have decided that it is time to hedge their bets. A lot of the action in semiconductors right now is geostrategic.
- ideamotor 4y ago
  How much their being worth protecting is causally protecting them? I suspect we have the same concern - that Taiwan is more likely to be subsumed if their products can be sourced elsewhere - but I don’t know if this is valid.
  - crumpled 4y ago
    I think "One China" is about a lot of things beyond commerce. States do have an interest in protecting their trading partners, insofar as it's still a good deal. And the poorer the country, the lower the fruit for a hungry invader.
- Rapzid 4y ago
  Lots of hedging all around. For instance TSMC building out advanced fabs in USA and Europe is good for everyone.
Melatonic 4y ago
If Intel and others could even get 7nm quality chips working that would likely be good enough for the foreseeable future. I really want to see a proper head to head of ARM vs x86 with chips at the same fabrication scale - right now part of the reason ARM (and apples new CPU's) are leagues ahead is also just that they are on a different manufacturing process. A modern AMD processor on identical scales might actually be (somewhat) close to the power efficiency of ARM. I'm sure it would still lose but it would be interesting.
- ac29 4y ago
  Intel 7 appears to be roughly comparable to TSMC N7 and is working and shipping in volume now.
mrandish 4y ago
> Seems more like narrative-supporting publicity than anything else. Agreed. 2nm-scale manufacturing is contingent on the capabilities available from a complex, interdependent ecosystem of suppliers starting with ASML but continuing to dozens of upstream and downstream sources of essential enabling tech from optics to light sources to resists, etc. Trying to push this from a top-down, government-driven "coordinating" agency will likely fail to accomplish anything meaningful toward the stated goal. The relevant ecosystem players are already closely collaborating, coordinating or competing. There's no obvious lack of motivation, common ground or communication. And this government effort doesn't have nearly enough money to entirely self-fund things that are both A) likely to make a meaningful difference, and B) aren't already being worked on . Thus, they'll have lots of meetings, then make some bets they can afford funding lower-odds things which aren't likely to pan out (or they'd be the higher-odds things already being bet on by the ecosystem).
- Teever 4y ago
  > Trying to push this from a top-down, government-driven "coordinating" agency will likely fail to accomplish anything meaningful toward the stated goal. But isn't this exactly what China did with Shenzhen and is attempting to do with their semi-conductors as a whole, which is the whole impetus for what the US is doing?
  - iancmceachern 4y ago
    China has several high profile failures of this policy in the semi business.
    - Teever 4y ago
      How much are those failures attributable to issues with the policy and how much are they attributable to reactions from opponents in Taiwan, South Korea and America?
      - iancmceachern 4y ago
        The HSMC failure seems to have been the former: https://youtu.be/OZSvDYDfd78 https://youtu.be/OZSvDYDfd78

R0b0t1 4y ago

Those companies sold American manufacturing overseas and are now demanding money to bring it back. I like the idea of an independent organization, though I'm not sure it will succeed.

mytailorisrich 4y ago

TSMC is strategic for Taiwan. This is a big part of what makes them 'useful' and worth protecting. On the other hand the US (and Japan, and others) seem to have decided that it is time to hedge their bets. A lot of the action in semiconductors right now is geostrategic.

ideamotor 4y ago
How much their being worth protecting is causally protecting them? I suspect we have the same concern - that Taiwan is more likely to be subsumed if their products can be sourced elsewhere - but I don’t know if this is valid.
- crumpled 4y ago
  I think "One China" is about a lot of things beyond commerce. States do have an interest in protecting their trading partners, insofar as it's still a good deal. And the poorer the country, the lower the fruit for a hungry invader.
Rapzid 4y ago
Lots of hedging all around. For instance TSMC building out advanced fabs in USA and Europe is good for everyone.

Melatonic 4y ago

If Intel and others could even get 7nm quality chips working that would likely be good enough for the foreseeable future. I really want to see a proper head to head of ARM vs x86 with chips at the same fabrication scale - right now part of the reason ARM (and apples new CPU's) are leagues ahead is also just that they are on a different manufacturing process. A modern AMD processor on identical scales might actually be (somewhat) close to the power efficiency of ARM. I'm sure it would still lose but it would be interesting.

ac29 4y ago
Intel 7 appears to be roughly comparable to TSMC N7 and is working and shipping in volume now.

mrandish 4y ago

> Seems more like narrative-supporting publicity than anything else. Agreed. 2nm-scale manufacturing is contingent on the capabilities available from a complex, interdependent ecosystem of suppliers starting with ASML but continuing to dozens of upstream and downstream sources of essential enabling tech from optics to light sources to resists, etc. Trying to push this from a top-down, government-driven "coordinating" agency will likely fail to accomplish anything meaningful toward the stated goal. The relevant ecosystem players are already closely collaborating, coordinating or competing. There's no obvious lack of motivation, common ground or communication. And this government effort doesn't have nearly enough money to entirely self-fund things that are both A) likely to make a meaningful difference, and B) aren't already being worked on . Thus, they'll have lots of meetings, then make some bets they can afford funding lower-odds things which aren't likely to pan out (or they'd be the higher-odds things already being bet on by the ecosystem).

Teever 4y ago
> Trying to push this from a top-down, government-driven "coordinating" agency will likely fail to accomplish anything meaningful toward the stated goal. But isn't this exactly what China did with Shenzhen and is attempting to do with their semi-conductors as a whole, which is the whole impetus for what the US is doing?
- iancmceachern 4y ago
  China has several high profile failures of this policy in the semi business.
  - Teever 4y ago
    How much are those failures attributable to issues with the policy and how much are they attributable to reactions from opponents in Taiwan, South Korea and America?
    - iancmceachern 4y ago
      The HSMC failure seems to have been the former: https://youtu.be/OZSvDYDfd78 https://youtu.be/OZSvDYDfd78