4 ms·

I'm hoping the sanctions remain after this war ends, assuming it ever ends.

ndr 4y ago
If sanctions were to remain after this war ends, how would they be useful as deterrent? Or how would they encourage the war to end any sooner?
- nradov 4y ago
  The main point of sanctions isn't to act as a deterrent, but rather to weaken the Russian economy and slow down their weapons production.
  - yogthos 4y ago
    Russia is currently making more money from energy exports than they did last year, please explain the logic here...
    - nradov 4y ago
      You're missing the point. Removing the sanctions wouldn't cause Russia to make less money from energy exports. The sanctions make it more difficult to Russia to import what they need to keep their military-industrial complex running. This is having at least some effect: intelligence sources indicate that their production rate for critical items such as tanks has slowed down.
      - yogthos 4y ago
        There is no evidence to support the claim that the sanctions make it more difficult for Russia to import what they need or that the sanctions have slowed down Russian military-industrial complex in any way. In fact, a British military think tank recently showed that Russia's military industrial complex is ahead of what the west is able to muster https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare/ https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... It's also completely absurd to think that Russia would have problems importing anything they can't make domestically given that India and China are backing them.
- tomjen3 4y ago
  Sanctions don't deter, because leaders always gets around them and don't care about the little guy. See NK. What sanctions do is prevent countries from building effective armies. See blocking Russia from getting enough good steel, which means they can't shoot for as long or as well. See not getting modern microchips, which means they cannot make drones or missiles. The sanctions must remain until Russia is much different. Otherwise this will just become another episode in the long war series.
  - StanislavPetrov 4y ago
    - namaria 4y ago
      Anyone dismissing access to Swift network as superfluous makes it clear their opinion should have no bearing in analyzing strategy.
theropost 4y ago
I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us. So, we've sanctioned Russian oil/exports, so now Russia sells its in-demand resources to Asia. The price of said resources have rallied, creating balance of accounts > before the aggression in favour of Russia. On the other side (the west), we suddenly have higher fuel prices, shortages piling up, and increasing inflation. In this regard, are sanctions truly useful? Or are they simply a way of saying we're doing something, without physically doing something - a lot similar to posting a long winded reply on an internet forum.. as I sit home, in my chair.
- Ralfp 4y ago
  I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us. Short term: not too good. Long term: great. Russia is a mafia state where oligarchy funded by resource exports uses most of money for lining their pockets but they spend rest on keeping up appearances that Russia is modern developed country. This setup allowed them to weaponize their foreign trade and use it against Europe on many occasions. Oligarchs don't care about changes of prices of goods on domestic market as long as they get money from resources while at same time European companies functioning on free market depend on trade to Russia for part of their income. So if Russian govt. wanted to pressure some government in Europe, they would just randomly announce that they found african pig virus in imported meat, and they are ceasing all meat imports from the country immediately. Or they would announce that apples are sick and do the same. Or they would announce that in October that they will have to reduce gas exports to given country because they have unspecific technical issue in transit system that they are currently working on resolving. This is why limiting economic ties to Russia is so important for Europe. Its a shock therapy that will let us bullet-proof our economies from Russian political influence while at same time Russian corrupted economy will not have it this easy to switch their tech industries (namely heavy industries and military production) away from dependence on European imports. And "they'll just switch to Asia" excuse will not work here because they are cut from first-league Asian exports because those happen to also be democracies that are part of states sanctioning them. They are left with China, Turkey and India who don't know how to produce fifth-generation radar systems for fighters, fifth generation tank armors and gun barrels or fifth generation tracking systems for their munitions. Great twitter thread explaining the situation: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388

ndr 4y ago

If sanctions were to remain after this war ends, how would they be useful as deterrent? Or how would they encourage the war to end any sooner?

nradov 4y ago
The main point of sanctions isn't to act as a deterrent, but rather to weaken the Russian economy and slow down their weapons production.
- yogthos 4y ago
  Russia is currently making more money from energy exports than they did last year, please explain the logic here...
  - nradov 4y ago
    You're missing the point. Removing the sanctions wouldn't cause Russia to make less money from energy exports. The sanctions make it more difficult to Russia to import what they need to keep their military-industrial complex running. This is having at least some effect: intelligence sources indicate that their production rate for critical items such as tanks has slowed down.
    - yogthos 4y ago
      There is no evidence to support the claim that the sanctions make it more difficult for Russia to import what they need or that the sanctions have slowed down Russian military-industrial complex in any way. In fact, a British military think tank recently showed that Russia's military industrial complex is ahead of what the west is able to muster https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare/ https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... It's also completely absurd to think that Russia would have problems importing anything they can't make domestically given that India and China are backing them.
tomjen3 4y ago
Sanctions don't deter, because leaders always gets around them and don't care about the little guy. See NK. What sanctions do is prevent countries from building effective armies. See blocking Russia from getting enough good steel, which means they can't shoot for as long or as well. See not getting modern microchips, which means they cannot make drones or missiles. The sanctions must remain until Russia is much different. Otherwise this will just become another episode in the long war series.
- StanislavPetrov 4y ago
  - namaria 4y ago
    Anyone dismissing access to Swift network as superfluous makes it clear their opinion should have no bearing in analyzing strategy.

theropost 4y ago

I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us. So, we've sanctioned Russian oil/exports, so now Russia sells its in-demand resources to Asia. The price of said resources have rallied, creating balance of accounts > before the aggression in favour of Russia. On the other side (the west), we suddenly have higher fuel prices, shortages piling up, and increasing inflation. In this regard, are sanctions truly useful? Or are they simply a way of saying we're doing something, without physically doing something - a lot similar to posting a long winded reply on an internet forum.. as I sit home, in my chair.

Ralfp 4y ago
I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us. Short term: not too good. Long term: great. Russia is a mafia state where oligarchy funded by resource exports uses most of money for lining their pockets but they spend rest on keeping up appearances that Russia is modern developed country. This setup allowed them to weaponize their foreign trade and use it against Europe on many occasions. Oligarchs don't care about changes of prices of goods on domestic market as long as they get money from resources while at same time European companies functioning on free market depend on trade to Russia for part of their income. So if Russian govt. wanted to pressure some government in Europe, they would just randomly announce that they found african pig virus in imported meat, and they are ceasing all meat imports from the country immediately. Or they would announce that apples are sick and do the same. Or they would announce that in October that they will have to reduce gas exports to given country because they have unspecific technical issue in transit system that they are currently working on resolving. This is why limiting economic ties to Russia is so important for Europe. Its a shock therapy that will let us bullet-proof our economies from Russian political influence while at same time Russian corrupted economy will not have it this easy to switch their tech industries (namely heavy industries and military production) away from dependence on European imports. And "they'll just switch to Asia" excuse will not work here because they are cut from first-league Asian exports because those happen to also be democracies that are part of states sanctioning them. They are left with China, Turkey and India who don't know how to produce fifth-generation radar systems for fighters, fifth generation tank armors and gun barrels or fifth generation tracking systems for their munitions. Great twitter thread explaining the situation: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388