15 ms·

Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis

56 points by novaRom 4y ago

Mizza 4y ago
It's going to be a cold winter for sure, but I'm hoping this will force Europe to get really, really serious about renewables.
- miguelazo 4y ago
  As much as I support renewables, this is a very naive statement. Germany has been especially good at investing in renewables. They're not enough, especially not in the short or even medium term.
  - mistrial9 4y ago
    why is efficiency never discussed in public? ref: Nega-Watts
  - _ph_ 4y ago
    Yes and no. Germany was on a great track until the early 10s. There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear. So yes, on the one side, Germany has a quite high quota in renewables in electricity production (>50%), but we fell quite behind what would have been possible and at the same time became more dependent on Russian gas. But there is hope for things to speed up again and make good progress in the next years.
    - bildung 4y ago
      > There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear. The decline hasn't much to do with nuclear, but instead with the conservative government shafting the previous infrastructure projects and subsidies for wind and pv. It was so clearly visible in the stats that it got named after the politian responsible ("Altmaier-Knick"). https://www.spektrum.de/news/erneuerbare-energien-der-energiewandel-ist-moeglich/1556660 https://www.spektrum.de/news/erneuerbare-energien-der-energi...
      - _ph_ 4y ago
        Yes, I didn't want to say it had something to do with nuclear, you are right about the Altmaier-Knick :). I just found it especially odd that the same government which had set the final end date for nuclear would slow down the one real replacement for it.
- seren 4y ago
  It is hard to get any new project online in three months, but surely Europe will be really really serious about energy saving this winter, it might be a good idea to buy a few more pullovers..
- Ekaros 4y ago
  I don't think renewables are a solution... So might be time just to give up on climate goals and start burning lot more goal.
- unixhero 4y ago
  Serious about NUCLEAR
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Which would solve the problem in about 20 years.
    - rowanG077 4y ago
      Which is still infinitely better then never.
    - Mindwipe 4y ago
      Which is still, to be fair, probably the fastest conceivable solution. And I am far from convinced about nuclear.
      - unixhero 4y ago
        So we all agree then
  - beberlei 4y ago
    nuclear energy is so expensive, take the new plants in the US and france that are being built. 10-20 years in construction, 10x over costs. You can't really build a new nuclear plant in 1-2 years
    - sp332 4y ago
      Germany is in a unique position here, having recently shut down over a dozen nuclear plants. Three months is probably not enough to refuel, restaff and cut through the red tape, but it doesn't have to be decades.
    - closedloop129 4y ago
      You could take the serially produced reactors that are used in ships. If you pay enough you should get the next batch. If you push it like China pushed its emergency Covid hospital, it should be a matter of months to have some reactors going.
- ch4s3 4y ago
  That doesn't replace oil/gas boilers. You can have all of the solar and wind you want, and you'd still guzzle gas in the winter using oil boilers in most of the country.
  - __MatrixMan__ 4y ago
    It ain't gonna happen in three months, but if you have all of the solar and wind you want you can stockpile synthetic methane in the summer and burn it in the winter.
    - ch4s3 4y ago
      You need hydrogen to produce synthetic methane, and plants to produce it. The larges source of H2 globally is from you guessed it, natural gas. To get if from electrolysis, you need an electrolysis plant near your synthetic methane plant and both need to be near water because it's difficult and dangerous to store H2. All of that would take more than months. You could probably replace a large number of boilers in 3 months. Not enough to solve the problem, but enough to make a dent. Electric boilers, while less efficient than heat pumps, only cost around $700 each and are basically a 1 for 1 replacement for a gas boiler.
  - fiftyfifty 4y ago
    The could use excess wind and solar electricity to power coal gasification plants to generate natural gas that they can then use in the winter, without having to retrofit any boilers. They can even make heating oil from coal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification
    - ch4s3 4y ago
      They sure could, and may end up doing that but I'd bet it's going to be politically unpalatable. Both retrofitting and coal gasification could probably be done in parallel.
- ekianjo 4y ago
  > really serious about renewables. I thought Germany was already really serious about renewables for the last 20 years, look where it brought them.
  - beberlei 4y ago
    They claimed to be really serious, but the conservative government of the last 16 years put in roadblock after roadblock, for example: * wind energy deployment decreased massively in the last 3-4 years due to bureaucracy. * Solar was always complicated, if you had it on the roof of your own house you would need to register a small business regardless and declare extra taxes every 3 month.
  - mort96 4y ago
    It brought them to a place which is less dependent on Russia than they otherwise would have been? And had they been yet more serious about renewables, they would have been even less dependent on Russia. If you want to criticise them, criticise them for not going with nuclear, not for trying to build out alternatives to gas. That makes no sense.
- perf1 4y ago
  Renewables make things much worse because they need loots of Gas as Backup if the sun isn't shining or there is no wind. Which happens very often in Germany especially in the Winter.
miguelazo 4y ago
The Europeans have been put in a very difficult position by the US Deep State. It's hard to imagine any of their governments will survive, much less Biden's. The question I really want answered is: who authorized the ramped up bombing of Eastern Ukraine (by the Ukrainians) in February? That is the person who really escalated this crisis. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-number-explosions-east-ukraine-2022-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-numb...
rasz 4y ago
3 months to somehow convince Ukraine to give up, or at least force EU to abandon sanctions. Edit: I do need to put /s tag on obvious stuff after all.
- timbit42 4y ago
  I'm hoping the sanctions remain after this war ends, assuming it ever ends.
  - ndr 4y ago
    If sanctions were to remain after this war ends, how would they be useful as deterrent? Or how would they encourage the war to end any sooner?
    - nradov 4y ago
      The main point of sanctions isn't to act as a deterrent, but rather to weaken the Russian economy and slow down their weapons production.
      - yogthos 4y ago
        Russia is currently making more money from energy exports than they did last year, please explain the logic here...
        nradov 4y ago
        You're missing the point. Removing the sanctions wouldn't cause Russia to make less money from energy exports. The sanctions make it more difficult to Russia to import what they need to keep their military-industrial complex running. This is having at least some effect: intelligence sources indicate that their production rate for critical items such as tanks has slowed down.
        yogthos 4y ago
yrgulation 4y ago
Germany is experiencing the results of corruption and arrogance. Not working with allies because "it knows better" has led to this exact moment. Enjoy winter!
- mordae 4y ago
  Not sure why this was downvoted.
  - yrgulation 4y ago
    Goes against the carefully crafted image here on hn that corruption only exists in other countries and not germany, and that, as merkel said recently, the sanctions against russian gas are actually a means to punish germany. The solution in many of these people’s minds is to let ukraine die and continue doing business as usual.
yalogin 4y ago
I hope this doesn't escalate into a full blown war. It's easy to stay calm when the gas is still flowing but when winter comes Germany will want to end the Ukraine invasion and so will pressure everyone involved to finish it off. Since giving up on Ukraine is not an option, forcing Putin out is the only way. Not sure how that is going to be resolved/achieved.
- nailer 4y ago
- YarickR2 4y ago
  - Fargoan 4y ago
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    I don't think dragged is right description. Willingly and gleefully entered is much closer. The price is starting to tally up. Let's see if voters are ready to pay it all.
  - jakubadamw 4y ago
    Cute. I take it you're not aware of the elephant in the room which is the corruption of the German political (and, even more so, business) elites by the Russian energy lobby. At the regional level we're talking about people like SPD's Manuela Schwesig and the "Klima und Umweltschutz" (Climate and Environment Protection) foundation¹, and at the high-level political level – about people like Gerhard Schröder who, in exchange for his Ribbentrop-Molotov-style tight energy cooperation with Russia, was awarded board seats at Nord Stream AG and Russia's Rosneft. But I guess that's not corruption? By the way, the very reason Russia invaded Ukraine is because Ukraine is on a relentless path to successful democratisation, deoligarchization and, yes, reduction, slow or not, of corruption. Russia wouldn't care if Ukraine was to stay _like_ Russia, corrupted and undemocratic. Russians invaded precisely because Ukraine was demonstrating it was (and is!) becoming European, adopting the European standards of the rule of law and a healthy market economy. The last thing Russia wants is a successful democracy at its doorstep, especially in a country that it claims (however falsely) it shares historical heritage with. ¹ https://www.transparency.org/en/press/germany-state-government-conceals-gazprom-connection-controversial-environmental-foundation-beneficial-ownership https://www.transparency.org/en/press/germany-state-governme...
nailer 4y ago
US President warning Germany about Russia in 2018: > "Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course," > "Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers."
- belltaco 4y ago
  Back in 2014: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells-eu-to-do-more-to-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas-idUSBREA2P0W220140326 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...
  - YarickR2 4y ago
    Back in early 2014: "Fuck the EU" - Victoria Nuland. Google it up. As it stands, EU is being consistently and thoroughly fucked
    - yucky 4y ago
      Not coincidentally, this is also when we learned the US was behind the 2014 coup in Ukraine, which directly led to Putin invading & annexing Crimea. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
- TMWNN 4y ago
  Let's name names. Trump, the abovementioned president, at the UN in 2018 warns that Germany is endangering itself by increasing dependence on Russia. German envoys laugh <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe>, including foreign minister Heiko Maas, today enjoying a quiet retirement back home in Saarland.
  - deleted 4y ago
raverbashing 4y ago
The article is a bit sensationalistic Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down. Yes, the industries will have a harder time, but for example, shifting generation from gas to even coal can save gas where it's needed > the premier of the state of Saxony from the opposition conservatives. “If we aren’t careful, Germany could become deindustrialized,” Oh that's cute. Where was this guy when this happened? https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-plant-eastern-germany-raises-questions-about-coal-regions-future https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-pl... (mostly because of NIMBYism). I guess you reap what you sow
- oneoff786 4y ago
  A lot of German industry runs on gas. They literally won’t work otherwise.
- lettergram 4y ago
  > The article is a bit sensationalistic Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down. Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Russia just turned off the taps, so you’re looking at a shortfall of 30-40% for winter (assuming it doesn’t restart). What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills. Not to mention, this will force companies to shutdown. Energy costs are too high to maintain production. So you’ll see people losing their jobs AND having crazy bills. This will impact everything across the board - food, goods, etc. https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
  - bildung 4y ago
    > Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Not energy, but only gas. > What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). Almost no household pays $300 for heating here. We life in a large flat and paid 120€/month last year (including warming all water for the year). > You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills. If we drop heating altogether our flat cools down to 11°C during winter (found out the hard way because our heating system broke down during winter a few years ago), so reducing heating by 100% means a delta of 9°C. Reducing target temperature to 18°C instead of 20°C would save perhaps 25% of gas. I personally expect increases of about 1000€ for the whole heating season for our household (i.e. about triple costs). The German depencence on gas is bad for multiple reasons, but your numbers are quite hyberbolic.
jollyllama 4y ago
Who knows, the military situation could change a lot in three months. The article doesn't really take that into account.
- raverbashing 4y ago
  Buying from the same unreliable supplier again would be a "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"
  - ahartmetz 4y ago
    It's not necessarily the same supplier anymore once the chief assclown in charge is gone. On the other hand, Russia has a centuries old tradition of awful leaders and suffering people, so...
  - jollyllama 4y ago
    Relatively speaking, the deprivation is easier to sell to EU citizens when the crisis is immediate. It's more compelling when lives and land are more clearly on the line, today. If the conflict goes cold again, it's harder to argue against importing gas.
- oneoff786 4y ago
  I can’t imagine a drastic sweep from either side leading to a quick reset of energy markets
  - ekianjo 4y ago
    Ukraine will fall quickly if they stop getting support from the outside in terms of weapons and supply.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      I doubt it. Ukraine is very well armed at this point. They can resist for a very very long time. If not do better without any further support. But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”? I think no.
bluedino 4y ago
One thing that stands out to me is that 10 million (25%) of German households use heating oil. The United States only has 5 million households that use heating oil. Why haven't they retrofit the houses in Germany (assuming they are older)?
- oneoff786 4y ago
  Because they had a lot of cheap oil previosuly
- timbit42 4y ago
  What percent is using electric resistance heating? If those are replaced with heat pumps with a COP of 3 to 4, that could free up enough electricity for the oil furnaces to also be replaced with heat pumps that plug right into existing duct work. This might sufficiently reduce their need for heating oil to last this winter. Of course, such quick acquisition and installation might be difficult or impossible, and purchasing and installing all those heat pumps won't be inexpensive, although it would save money over the long term. Perhaps the German government could provide financial grants or loans for those unable to afford it.
  - beberlei 4y ago
    They already provide financial help for heat pumps, but the problem is that a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.
    - timbit42 4y ago
      Perhaps temporarily bring in installers from other NATO countries to help.
    - vkou 4y ago
      > a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. If this were the national emergency that everyone claims it is, this problem could be fixed in weeks, if not months, by the government training people in the basics of getting heat pumps installed. It's not brain surgery, it doesn't need a decade of schooling. > b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable. That same argument could be used to say that most houses are not insulated well enough to make gas heating financially viable.
TMWNN 4y ago
It's been striking how little discussion there is of this in /r/europe and /r/germany. (The latter has pinned a megathread for the topic, the classic way of killing discussion.) /r/de is slightly better, if only because of the absence of the constant "I don't know German but want to move to Germany and get a job" posts. I don't mean to say that there's been nothing, along the lines of the 100% censorship that happened at /r/news the day of the 2016 Orlando mass shooter. There has been some. But there is far, far, far less. Just last moth we had * a German minister stating that becoming dependent on Russian gas was a "grievous mistake", and that his country is begging for turbines from Canada "with a heavy heart" * His government stating that entire industries might "collapse" * Rationing of gas announced * Local municipalities planning warm buildings that those without heat in their homes can visit during the winter This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  I would guess that there is one worse catastrophe in past 80 years for Germany...
  - TMWNN 4y ago
    Which is why I said 80 years and not 85 years.
    - Ekaros 4y ago
      Didn't they start losing in 1942? So that would be bigger catastrophe for them in past 80 years...
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
- tomjen3 4y ago
  80 years? That seems an extreme statement for what will essentially be a recession and having to wear more clothing indoors. Do you have some basis that this will be worse than 2008?
draw_down 4y ago
wobbleblob 4y ago
It's easy to point at Germany and tell them they have only themselves to blame, for becoming so dependent on Russian gas, but aren't we in the US making the same mistake when it comes to manufactured goods? Even a slight disturbance in Chinese manufacturing due to Covid caused a massive supply chain problem here. Imagine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here?
- bradhe 4y ago
  The implication is that it's somehow better to be "self reliant" but that is also basically impossible.
  - nradov 4y ago
    The implication is that it's better to not be reliant on an adversary. Some level of reliance on reliable allies is fine.
    - woweoe 4y ago
      But that would be a major challenge. Virtually all of the Asian continent save for Japan and Korea (who are reliant on the US for military purposes) in some way kept neutral and/or allied with Russia.
      - Isinlor 4y ago
        Only North Korea, Syria, Eritrea and Belarus decided to vote against resolution condemning Russian invasion on Ukraine. Russia has no allies. Even China is reluctant to take over what remains from Russian market abandoned by Western companies. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499072011729096705 https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499072011729096705
  - wobbleblob 4y ago
    It's more about being reliant on one source under the control of a potential rival.
kranke155 4y ago
It seems to me like the war will succeed in its goal in some form or another - the world has drastically changed, and we might be seeing the end of Europe as a global economic power. After Russia is finished with Europe we might have a far smaller economy, while they rebound with ease because what they sell can be sold anywhere at some price. Gas alone has done like a 20x in price. Even if Ukraine is a frozen conflict in 6 months, some of those billions will be used to attempt to re elect Trump, and if he wins, then Europe will be left alone (and helpless) to fight Russia, who seems to easily outnumber and outfight European nations. The fact is Russia is willing to do anything to take over Ukraine, while the West has “limits”. Those limits are the seeds of our downfall in Ukraine. Then if Trump will end Article 5 of NATO and then we might see chaos. Russia is in a decent position to come out the winner of this, and the western media is dangerously underreporting this.
bjourne 4y ago
Proper isolation goes a long way... My house is connected to district heating and isolated to withstand -25C night temperatures. It even isolates against heat in the summer. +30C outside but a cool 22C inside. Thus the cost of heating is very low. It's not rocket science, just make walls thicker and ensure there is no draft through windows.
- koolba 4y ago
  I’m guessing you mean insulation. Isolated houses wouldn’t be on the grid anyway right?
  - tharkun__ 4y ago
    Very probably. Isolation is a "false friend" in German and English (also in French and English). Meaning both languages have that word but they mean something different depending on context. In this case "Isolation" in German is used both for insulation and isolation while they are separate words in English for the two.
zahma 4y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der Former PM Schröder is nearly solely responsible for hooking Germany on cheap Russian oil. Just look at who he works for now — he’s effectively a Russian oligarch at this point and defended Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.
- sebazzz 4y ago
  We really should have thought twice in Europe when MH17 was shot down and Russia took Crimea. Instead we nodded slightly in disappointment and happily continued making ourselves dependent on Russian gas.
simonblack 4y ago
Self-inflicted crisis. The Nordstream 2 pipeline is pressurised and ready to go. Germany just has to switch it on.
- throwoutway 4y ago
  There's this other geopolitical thing that's been happening.

56 points by novaRom 4y ago

It's going to be a cold winter for sure, but I'm hoping this will force Europe to get really, really serious about renewables.

miguelazo 4y ago
As much as I support renewables, this is a very naive statement. Germany has been especially good at investing in renewables. They're not enough, especially not in the short or even medium term.
- mistrial9 4y ago
  why is efficiency never discussed in public? ref: Nega-Watts
- _ph_ 4y ago
  Yes and no. Germany was on a great track until the early 10s. There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear. So yes, on the one side, Germany has a quite high quota in renewables in electricity production (>50%), but we fell quite behind what would have been possible and at the same time became more dependent on Russian gas. But there is hope for things to speed up again and make good progress in the next years.
  - bildung 4y ago
    > There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear. The decline hasn't much to do with nuclear, but instead with the conservative government shafting the previous infrastructure projects and subsidies for wind and pv. It was so clearly visible in the stats that it got named after the politian responsible ("Altmaier-Knick"). https://www.spektrum.de/news/erneuerbare-energien-der-energiewandel-ist-moeglich/1556660 https://www.spektrum.de/news/erneuerbare-energien-der-energi...
    - _ph_ 4y ago
      Yes, I didn't want to say it had something to do with nuclear, you are right about the Altmaier-Knick :). I just found it especially odd that the same government which had set the final end date for nuclear would slow down the one real replacement for it.
seren 4y ago
It is hard to get any new project online in three months, but surely Europe will be really really serious about energy saving this winter, it might be a good idea to buy a few more pullovers..
Ekaros 4y ago
I don't think renewables are a solution... So might be time just to give up on climate goals and start burning lot more goal.
unixhero 4y ago
Serious about NUCLEAR
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Which would solve the problem in about 20 years.
  - rowanG077 4y ago
    Which is still infinitely better then never.
  - Mindwipe 4y ago
    Which is still, to be fair, probably the fastest conceivable solution. And I am far from convinced about nuclear.
    - unixhero 4y ago
      So we all agree then
- beberlei 4y ago
  nuclear energy is so expensive, take the new plants in the US and france that are being built. 10-20 years in construction, 10x over costs. You can't really build a new nuclear plant in 1-2 years
  - sp332 4y ago
    Germany is in a unique position here, having recently shut down over a dozen nuclear plants. Three months is probably not enough to refuel, restaff and cut through the red tape, but it doesn't have to be decades.
  - closedloop129 4y ago
    You could take the serially produced reactors that are used in ships. If you pay enough you should get the next batch. If you push it like China pushed its emergency Covid hospital, it should be a matter of months to have some reactors going.
ch4s3 4y ago
That doesn't replace oil/gas boilers. You can have all of the solar and wind you want, and you'd still guzzle gas in the winter using oil boilers in most of the country.
- __MatrixMan__ 4y ago
  It ain't gonna happen in three months, but if you have all of the solar and wind you want you can stockpile synthetic methane in the summer and burn it in the winter.
  - ch4s3 4y ago
    You need hydrogen to produce synthetic methane, and plants to produce it. The larges source of H2 globally is from you guessed it, natural gas. To get if from electrolysis, you need an electrolysis plant near your synthetic methane plant and both need to be near water because it's difficult and dangerous to store H2. All of that would take more than months. You could probably replace a large number of boilers in 3 months. Not enough to solve the problem, but enough to make a dent. Electric boilers, while less efficient than heat pumps, only cost around $700 each and are basically a 1 for 1 replacement for a gas boiler.
- fiftyfifty 4y ago
  The could use excess wind and solar electricity to power coal gasification plants to generate natural gas that they can then use in the winter, without having to retrofit any boilers. They can even make heating oil from coal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification
  - ch4s3 4y ago
    They sure could, and may end up doing that but I'd bet it's going to be politically unpalatable. Both retrofitting and coal gasification could probably be done in parallel.
ekianjo 4y ago
> really serious about renewables. I thought Germany was already really serious about renewables for the last 20 years, look where it brought them.
- beberlei 4y ago
  They claimed to be really serious, but the conservative government of the last 16 years put in roadblock after roadblock, for example: * wind energy deployment decreased massively in the last 3-4 years due to bureaucracy. * Solar was always complicated, if you had it on the roof of your own house you would need to register a small business regardless and declare extra taxes every 3 month.
- mort96 4y ago
  It brought them to a place which is less dependent on Russia than they otherwise would have been? And had they been yet more serious about renewables, they would have been even less dependent on Russia. If you want to criticise them, criticise them for not going with nuclear, not for trying to build out alternatives to gas. That makes no sense.
perf1 4y ago
Renewables make things much worse because they need loots of Gas as Backup if the sun isn't shining or there is no wind. Which happens very often in Germany especially in the Winter.

miguelazo 4y ago

The Europeans have been put in a very difficult position by the US Deep State. It's hard to imagine any of their governments will survive, much less Biden's. The question I really want answered is: who authorized the ramped up bombing of Eastern Ukraine (by the Ukrainians) in February? That is the person who really escalated this crisis. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-number-explosions-east-ukraine-2022-02-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-numb...

rasz 4y ago

3 months to somehow convince Ukraine to give up, or at least force EU to abandon sanctions. Edit: I do need to put /s tag on obvious stuff after all.

timbit42 4y ago
I'm hoping the sanctions remain after this war ends, assuming it ever ends.
- ndr 4y ago
  If sanctions were to remain after this war ends, how would they be useful as deterrent? Or how would they encourage the war to end any sooner?
  - nradov 4y ago
    The main point of sanctions isn't to act as a deterrent, but rather to weaken the Russian economy and slow down their weapons production.
    - yogthos 4y ago
      Russia is currently making more money from energy exports than they did last year, please explain the logic here...
      - nradov 4y ago
        You're missing the point. Removing the sanctions wouldn't cause Russia to make less money from energy exports. The sanctions make it more difficult to Russia to import what they need to keep their military-industrial complex running. This is having at least some effect: intelligence sources indicate that their production rate for critical items such as tanks has slowed down.
        yogthos 4y ago

yrgulation 4y ago

Germany is experiencing the results of corruption and arrogance. Not working with allies because "it knows better" has led to this exact moment. Enjoy winter!

mordae 4y ago
Not sure why this was downvoted.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  Goes against the carefully crafted image here on hn that corruption only exists in other countries and not germany, and that, as merkel said recently, the sanctions against russian gas are actually a means to punish germany. The solution in many of these people’s minds is to let ukraine die and continue doing business as usual.

yalogin 4y ago

I hope this doesn't escalate into a full blown war. It's easy to stay calm when the gas is still flowing but when winter comes Germany will want to end the Ukraine invasion and so will pressure everyone involved to finish it off. Since giving up on Ukraine is not an option, forcing Putin out is the only way. Not sure how that is going to be resolved/achieved.

nailer 4y ago
YarickR2 4y ago
- Fargoan 4y ago
- Ekaros 4y ago
  I don't think dragged is right description. Willingly and gleefully entered is much closer. The price is starting to tally up. Let's see if voters are ready to pay it all.
- jakubadamw 4y ago
  Cute. I take it you're not aware of the elephant in the room which is the corruption of the German political (and, even more so, business) elites by the Russian energy lobby. At the regional level we're talking about people like SPD's Manuela Schwesig and the "Klima und Umweltschutz" (Climate and Environment Protection) foundation¹, and at the high-level political level – about people like Gerhard Schröder who, in exchange for his Ribbentrop-Molotov-style tight energy cooperation with Russia, was awarded board seats at Nord Stream AG and Russia's Rosneft. But I guess that's not corruption? By the way, the very reason Russia invaded Ukraine is because Ukraine is on a relentless path to successful democratisation, deoligarchization and, yes, reduction, slow or not, of corruption. Russia wouldn't care if Ukraine was to stay _like_ Russia, corrupted and undemocratic. Russians invaded precisely because Ukraine was demonstrating it was (and is!) becoming European, adopting the European standards of the rule of law and a healthy market economy. The last thing Russia wants is a successful democracy at its doorstep, especially in a country that it claims (however falsely) it shares historical heritage with. ¹ https://www.transparency.org/en/press/germany-state-government-conceals-gazprom-connection-controversial-environmental-foundation-beneficial-ownership https://www.transparency.org/en/press/germany-state-governme...

nailer 4y ago

US President warning Germany about Russia in 2018: > "Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course," > "Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers."

belltaco 4y ago
Back in 2014: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells-eu-to-do-more-to-cut-reliance-on-russian-gas-idUSBREA2P0W220140326 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...
- YarickR2 4y ago
  Back in early 2014: "Fuck the EU" - Victoria Nuland. Google it up. As it stands, EU is being consistently and thoroughly fucked
  - yucky 4y ago
    Not coincidentally, this is also when we learned the US was behind the 2014 coup in Ukraine, which directly led to Putin invading & annexing Crimea. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
TMWNN 4y ago
Let's name names. Trump, the abovementioned president, at the UN in 2018 warns that Germany is endangering itself by increasing dependence on Russia. German envoys laugh <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe>, including foreign minister Heiko Maas, today enjoying a quiet retirement back home in Saarland.
- deleted 4y ago

raverbashing 4y ago

The article is a bit sensationalistic Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down. Yes, the industries will have a harder time, but for example, shifting generation from gas to even coal can save gas where it's needed > the premier of the state of Saxony from the opposition conservatives. “If we aren’t careful, Germany could become deindustrialized,” Oh that's cute. Where was this guy when this happened? https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-plant-eastern-germany-raises-questions-about-coal-regions-future https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-pl... (mostly because of NIMBYism). I guess you reap what you sow

oneoff786 4y ago
A lot of German industry runs on gas. They literally won’t work otherwise.
lettergram 4y ago
> The article is a bit sensationalistic Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down. Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Russia just turned off the taps, so you’re looking at a shortfall of 30-40% for winter (assuming it doesn’t restart). What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills. Not to mention, this will force companies to shutdown. Energy costs are too high to maintain production. So you’ll see people losing their jobs AND having crazy bills. This will impact everything across the board - food, goods, etc. https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
- bildung 4y ago
  > Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Not energy, but only gas. > What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). Almost no household pays $300 for heating here. We life in a large flat and paid 120€/month last year (including warming all water for the year). > You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills. If we drop heating altogether our flat cools down to 11°C during winter (found out the hard way because our heating system broke down during winter a few years ago), so reducing heating by 100% means a delta of 9°C. Reducing target temperature to 18°C instead of 20°C would save perhaps 25% of gas. I personally expect increases of about 1000€ for the whole heating season for our household (i.e. about triple costs). The German depencence on gas is bad for multiple reasons, but your numbers are quite hyberbolic.

jollyllama 4y ago

Who knows, the military situation could change a lot in three months. The article doesn't really take that into account.

raverbashing 4y ago
Buying from the same unreliable supplier again would be a "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"
- ahartmetz 4y ago
  It's not necessarily the same supplier anymore once the chief assclown in charge is gone. On the other hand, Russia has a centuries old tradition of awful leaders and suffering people, so...
- jollyllama 4y ago
  Relatively speaking, the deprivation is easier to sell to EU citizens when the crisis is immediate. It's more compelling when lives and land are more clearly on the line, today. If the conflict goes cold again, it's harder to argue against importing gas.
oneoff786 4y ago
I can’t imagine a drastic sweep from either side leading to a quick reset of energy markets
- ekianjo 4y ago
  Ukraine will fall quickly if they stop getting support from the outside in terms of weapons and supply.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    I doubt it. Ukraine is very well armed at this point. They can resist for a very very long time. If not do better without any further support. But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”? I think no.

bluedino 4y ago

One thing that stands out to me is that 10 million (25%) of German households use heating oil. The United States only has 5 million households that use heating oil. Why haven't they retrofit the houses in Germany (assuming they are older)?

oneoff786 4y ago
Because they had a lot of cheap oil previosuly
timbit42 4y ago
What percent is using electric resistance heating? If those are replaced with heat pumps with a COP of 3 to 4, that could free up enough electricity for the oil furnaces to also be replaced with heat pumps that plug right into existing duct work. This might sufficiently reduce their need for heating oil to last this winter. Of course, such quick acquisition and installation might be difficult or impossible, and purchasing and installing all those heat pumps won't be inexpensive, although it would save money over the long term. Perhaps the German government could provide financial grants or loans for those unable to afford it.
- beberlei 4y ago
  They already provide financial help for heat pumps, but the problem is that a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.
  - timbit42 4y ago
    Perhaps temporarily bring in installers from other NATO countries to help.
  - vkou 4y ago
    > a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. If this were the national emergency that everyone claims it is, this problem could be fixed in weeks, if not months, by the government training people in the basics of getting heat pumps installed. It's not brain surgery, it doesn't need a decade of schooling. > b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable. That same argument could be used to say that most houses are not insulated well enough to make gas heating financially viable.

TMWNN 4y ago

It's been striking how little discussion there is of this in /r/europe and /r/germany. (The latter has pinned a megathread for the topic, the classic way of killing discussion.) /r/de is slightly better, if only because of the absence of the constant "I don't know German but want to move to Germany and get a job" posts. I don't mean to say that there's been nothing, along the lines of the 100% censorship that happened at /r/news the day of the 2016 Orlando mass shooter. There has been some. But there is far, far, far less. Just last moth we had * a German minister stating that becoming dependent on Russian gas was a "grievous mistake", and that his country is begging for turbines from Canada "with a heavy heart" * His government stating that entire industries might "collapse" * Rationing of gas announced * Local municipalities planning warm buildings that those without heat in their homes can visit during the winter This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.

Ekaros 4y ago
I would guess that there is one worse catastrophe in past 80 years for Germany...
- TMWNN 4y ago
  Which is why I said 80 years and not 85 years.
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    Didn't they start losing in 1942? So that would be bigger catastrophe for them in past 80 years...
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
tomjen3 4y ago
80 years? That seems an extreme statement for what will essentially be a recession and having to wear more clothing indoors. Do you have some basis that this will be worse than 2008?

draw_down 4y ago

wobbleblob 4y ago

It's easy to point at Germany and tell them they have only themselves to blame, for becoming so dependent on Russian gas, but aren't we in the US making the same mistake when it comes to manufactured goods? Even a slight disturbance in Chinese manufacturing due to Covid caused a massive supply chain problem here. Imagine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here?

bradhe 4y ago
The implication is that it's somehow better to be "self reliant" but that is also basically impossible.
- nradov 4y ago
  The implication is that it's better to not be reliant on an adversary. Some level of reliance on reliable allies is fine.
  - woweoe 4y ago
    But that would be a major challenge. Virtually all of the Asian continent save for Japan and Korea (who are reliant on the US for military purposes) in some way kept neutral and/or allied with Russia.
    - Isinlor 4y ago
      Only North Korea, Syria, Eritrea and Belarus decided to vote against resolution condemning Russian invasion on Ukraine. Russia has no allies. Even China is reluctant to take over what remains from Russian market abandoned by Western companies. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499072011729096705 https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499072011729096705
- wobbleblob 4y ago
  It's more about being reliant on one source under the control of a potential rival.

kranke155 4y ago

It seems to me like the war will succeed in its goal in some form or another - the world has drastically changed, and we might be seeing the end of Europe as a global economic power. After Russia is finished with Europe we might have a far smaller economy, while they rebound with ease because what they sell can be sold anywhere at some price. Gas alone has done like a 20x in price. Even if Ukraine is a frozen conflict in 6 months, some of those billions will be used to attempt to re elect Trump, and if he wins, then Europe will be left alone (and helpless) to fight Russia, who seems to easily outnumber and outfight European nations. The fact is Russia is willing to do anything to take over Ukraine, while the West has “limits”. Those limits are the seeds of our downfall in Ukraine. Then if Trump will end Article 5 of NATO and then we might see chaos. Russia is in a decent position to come out the winner of this, and the western media is dangerously underreporting this.

bjourne 4y ago

Proper isolation goes a long way... My house is connected to district heating and isolated to withstand -25C night temperatures. It even isolates against heat in the summer. +30C outside but a cool 22C inside. Thus the cost of heating is very low. It's not rocket science, just make walls thicker and ensure there is no draft through windows.

koolba 4y ago
I’m guessing you mean insulation. Isolated houses wouldn’t be on the grid anyway right?
- tharkun__ 4y ago
  Very probably. Isolation is a "false friend" in German and English (also in French and English). Meaning both languages have that word but they mean something different depending on context. In this case "Isolation" in German is used both for insulation and isolation while they are separate words in English for the two.

zahma 4y ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der Former PM Schröder is nearly solely responsible for hooking Germany on cheap Russian oil. Just look at who he works for now — he’s effectively a Russian oligarch at this point and defended Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.

sebazzz 4y ago
We really should have thought twice in Europe when MH17 was shot down and Russia took Crimea. Instead we nodded slightly in disappointment and happily continued making ourselves dependent on Russian gas.

simonblack 4y ago

Self-inflicted crisis. The Nordstream 2 pipeline is pressurised and ready to go. Germany just has to switch it on.

throwoutway 4y ago
There's this other geopolitical thing that's been happening.