4 ms·

> In this paper, we assemble direct quantitative evidence of the impact that computing power has had on five domains: two computing bellwethers (Chess and Go),

> In this paper, we assemble direct quantitative evidence of the impact that computing power has had on five domains: two computing bellwethers (Chess and Go), and three economically important applications (weather prediction, protein folding, and oil exploration). Computing power explains 49%-94% of the performance improvements in these domains. I'd like for a follow-up paper to look at some different domains, since these are AI research and scientific computing, respectively. Business computing is more directly relevant to economic growth, and with its use dating back to the 1950s it might be possible to find data on how it's improved.

nabla9 4y ago
It's well studied subject. There are also surveys available. Here is slate article: https://slate.com/business/2011/03/the-productivity-paradox-why-hasn-t-the-internet-helped-the-american-economy-grow-more.html https://slate.com/business/2011/03/the-productivity-paradox-... 1) effect has been surprisingly small. It's often called the "productivity paradox" Robert Solow said it in late 80s: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” 2) The reasons are complex. One possible reason is that productivity increase -> labor share declines -> less demand -> smaller GDP growth. People always incorrectly assume that unemployment is the danger from automation. The real issue is declining labor share. People with jobs get smaller share of the work they do, because computers (capital asset) is replacing labor.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  I wonder if anybody measured something similar to that number on the 18th century.
jasonhong 4y ago
Economist Robert Solow famously said in 1987 that the computer age was everywhere except for productivity statistics. Wikipedia has a pretty good article about this Productivity Paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox#End_of_the_1970s_to_1980s_productivity_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox#End_of_th... One hypothesis I've heard that isn't on the Wikipedia page is that productivity from IT also requires new kinds of organizational structures. If you had many layers of middle management, and replaced paper memos with email, it wouldn't necessarily improve productivity because that wouldn't harness the full potential of computing.

nabla9 4y ago

It's well studied subject. There are also surveys available. Here is slate article: https://slate.com/business/2011/03/the-productivity-paradox-why-hasn-t-the-internet-helped-the-american-economy-grow-more.html https://slate.com/business/2011/03/the-productivity-paradox-... 1) effect has been surprisingly small. It's often called the "productivity paradox" Robert Solow said it in late 80s: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” 2) The reasons are complex. One possible reason is that productivity increase -> labor share declines -> less demand -> smaller GDP growth. People always incorrectly assume that unemployment is the danger from automation. The real issue is declining labor share. People with jobs get smaller share of the work they do, because computers (capital asset) is replacing labor.

marcosdumay 4y ago
I wonder if anybody measured something similar to that number on the 18th century.

jasonhong 4y ago

Economist Robert Solow famously said in 1987 that the computer age was everywhere except for productivity statistics. Wikipedia has a pretty good article about this Productivity Paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox#End_of_the_1970s_to_1980s_productivity_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox#End_of_th... One hypothesis I've heard that isn't on the Wikipedia page is that productivity from IT also requires new kinds of organizational structures. If you had many layers of middle management, and replaced paper memos with email, it wouldn't necessarily improve productivity because that wouldn't harness the full potential of computing.