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The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doi

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're taking are legitimately horrifying. I seriously don't think these people understand what the lives of normal people are actually like. The white house had the gall to put out a tweet bragging that gas prices had come down, and that this could be saving people $35/mo, and how much that is helping. Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this.

jeffbee 4y ago
Direct actions like what? U.S. crude production is near all-time highs. Gas is expensive because ridiculous Americans will pay it and the oil companies figured that out. Shell just announced a $12 billion quarterly profit. The only thing I want to see out of Biden on gas prices is a windfall tax on oil companies where the funds are dedicated to lithium exploration.
- thepasswordis 4y ago
  Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. Imagine you're a company which builds refining and extraction infrastructure. The government wants you to build more capacity to bring down the cost fuel, but 18 months ago. you watched them just straight up cancel a project which was already half finished. Would you go for this? I wouldn't. And you have a bunch of land lease contracts which allow you to extract oil. Without these contracts your business will collapse. The government has said that they won't give you any more until you use the ones you have. But again: they've spent the last 18 months cancelling projects, and talking about how we need to make a transition away from your business. Do you trust that once you use up the remaining leases you have, that they're really going to give you more? I wouldn't trust that.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. It's unlikely an unfinished pipeline for export purposes had a significant impact on current gasoline prices. https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310 https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310 "Experts tell The Associated Press that the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation isn’t affecting what’s happening in the oil market today. It was never operational when it was shut down, and was not slated to go into service until 2023, according to a press release from TC Energy, the company constructing the project." "Even if the Keystone XL pipeline had been completed, the amount of oil it was designed to transport would have been a drop in the bucket for U.S. demand, experts noted. The U.S. used nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day last year, while global consumption of oil was near 100 million barrels. The pipeline would have contributed less than 1% to the world supply of oil, according to AP reporting."
    - thepasswordis 4y ago
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        willcipriano 4y ago
        Gasoline was expensive before the war.
        dfxm12 4y ago
        Yes, because of a worldwide pandemic. https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-prices-to-their-highest-in-7-years/ https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-pr...
        willcipriano 4y ago
- causi 4y ago
  $11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.
  - jeffbee 4y ago
    Oil is the textbook commodity and the expected profit margin on commodities is ~zero. That's the nature of a commodity: a good so interchangeable, with so many competing producers, that the profit margins are inevitably minimized.
    - kgwgk 4y ago
      By ~zero do you mean "covering just the cost of capital over a full cycle"? This is a textbook example of a capital intensive and cyclical industry.
    - _ea1k 4y ago
      The problem is that supply naturally reacts slowly and ~1/10th of the supply was removed from the global market. I've heard people act as if that's a small shift, but its really not small at all over the short term.
    - missedthecue 4y ago
      Not all commodities are equally recoverable at similar costs though, and in a world where we need more oil/copper/iron than can come out of the cheapest mine, there will be profit
  - _ea1k 4y ago
    9% is exceptionally high for some industries (eg, commodities or retail). For example, Wal-Mart is closer to 3%. Its not unusual to see targets of close to 4%. I do agree with you that it isn't unexpected during a period of sanctions on a country that produces ~10% of the worldwide oil supply, though. Profits naturally will rise for the remaining players.
    - rabuse 4y ago
jhoward321 4y ago
They didn't redefine recession, that's been defined by NBER. I agree there's some spin, but this statement isn't correct.
- junofan 4y ago
  The NBER is a private think tank. You may be confusing them with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is an independent federal agency.
  - jmalicki 4y ago
    No, it is the NBER. Even the BEA says the NBER officially defines recessions: https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession
- tinalumfoil 4y ago
  There’s no official definition. It’s like saying you’re sick, you can be sick even if doctors can’t point to what’s wrong with you, and you aren’t necessarily sick even if you have a condition. The two quarters thing is just a really widely recognized rule of thumb. The idea that there’s some sort of official definition every economist agrees on is incorrect. The idea that there’s an organization that owns the word recession is also wrong.
gorwell 4y ago
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”
- teolandon 4y ago
  1984 does not apply here in any way shape or form.
  - rabuse 4y ago
    Rewriting definitions to fit a narrative, in my mind, is very applicable.
    - colinmhayes 4y ago
      Good thing no one is rewriting definitions. “Recession” has no agreed upon definition, the federal government relies on the NBER to officially tell us if we’re in a recession. They haven’t said so yet.
- paganel 4y ago
  Next thing they’ll go for the statistics bureau itself in order to massage the numbers closer to the source as possible, no need anymore of this Orwellian double-talk. At least that’s what they were doing in the ‘80s in the Eastern-European country while I was a kid, officially we had record maize and wheat production, in practice bread and cooking oil were rationed.
- dmux 4y ago
  I don't remember the book ever mentioning architecture, a form of history itself.
ceejayoz 4y ago
> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record-profit-115-billion-2022-07-28/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also announced a $6 billion share buyback programme for the current quarter but did not raise its dividend of 25 cents per share. It said shareholder returns would remain 'in excess of 30% of cash flow from operating activities'."
- misiti3780 4y ago
  what's your point? you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices, it's only the evil+greedy oil execs?
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices Essentially correct. Presidents have very little control over this.
    - misiti3780 4y ago
      Yes, they do. They control things like this. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing-new-oil-and-gas-leases-amid-legal-battle-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing... We could drill our away out of this problem, but we are not, because the the biden administration is being held hostage by the progressive left. And before you start calling me a republican, im not one, but this is just a really stupid idea because it's decisions like this that will cause republicans to be elected in 2022 and 2024 - the american public isnt going to take higher gas prices for the team to fight climate change at this point, they are going to vote people into office that will lower them. biden doesnt realize this because he is surrounded by people that think a like and are too rich to be unaffected by inflation, or he doesnt care -- either way, it s a bad position
duped 4y ago
> and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. We're not seeing a decline in employment or spending. The really bad symptoms of a bad economy aren't there yet. > Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. Which direct actions? And frankly, gasoline prices do not amount to a signficant amount of spending by American families. Food and housing costs are also up and wages down (adjusted for inflation) which account for a lot more money that people actually spend than energy. However gasoline prices are also way down from a month ago, yet food/rent are still up.
- nightski 4y ago
  It's been suggested the employment is because people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet, not because there are more people getting jobs. Gas affects the prices of nearly everything in the economy so I have no idea how you would conclude it's not a large portion of spending. I work in commodities and we are seeing massive price increases simply due to fuel & freight costs.
  - dazhengca 4y ago
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE That doesn’t appear to be the cae
    - nightski 4y ago
      This is good data, but I am guessing it does not take into account the gig economy which I wonder what the effect of that is.
  - snikeris 4y ago
    The government can stimulate employment by pumping money into its favored causes. So what you end up with is plenty of people employed but not producing things that people actually want. Unfortunately, we can't even imagine the wonders that people might have produced if their resources were instead allocated towards satisfying consumers.
consumer451 4y ago
> That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. I’ve been hearing from some people that the rise in gas prices is this administration’s fault. However, when I look at prices here in the EU, gas prices have risen much more. Is that the current US admin’s fault as well? What specific tools should the exec use in this situation? EO no more oil exports? EO limiting the record petro industry profits? What is the complete argument for why this is Biden’s fault?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
systemvoltage 4y ago
Wait until you hear about ESG which governs some trillions of dollars of assets. ESG is a way for politicians/elites to force ideology on the public without having to go through the electoral process and gaining public support. This power is exercised through the proxy of corporations. It is anything but democratic. It is totalitarian/authoritarian. Mastercard is already experimenting with CO2 emissions based spending habits: https://www.mastercard.us/en-us/vision/corp-responsibility/priceless-planet/carbon-calculator.html https://www.mastercard.us/en-us/vision/corp-responsibility/p... I am the last one to believe in these types of things but it is getting to a point where I feel like we're being boiled like a frog. Climate/ESG initiatives have lost respect in my eyes, I'd like to support sensible things but this is how we'll get totalitarianism on our hands. Then there is the whole WEF agenda.
AdamN 4y ago
?? Gas is up in the rest of the world too so it's pretty easy to disprove that it's due to the direct actions of the Biden administration.

jeffbee 4y ago

Direct actions like what? U.S. crude production is near all-time highs. Gas is expensive because ridiculous Americans will pay it and the oil companies figured that out. Shell just announced a $12 billion quarterly profit. The only thing I want to see out of Biden on gas prices is a windfall tax on oil companies where the funds are dedicated to lithium exploration.

thepasswordis 4y ago
Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. Imagine you're a company which builds refining and extraction infrastructure. The government wants you to build more capacity to bring down the cost fuel, but 18 months ago. you watched them just straight up cancel a project which was already half finished. Would you go for this? I wouldn't. And you have a bunch of land lease contracts which allow you to extract oil. Without these contracts your business will collapse. The government has said that they won't give you any more until you use the ones you have. But again: they've spent the last 18 months cancelling projects, and talking about how we need to make a transition away from your business. Do you trust that once you use up the remaining leases you have, that they're really going to give you more? I wouldn't trust that.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. It's unlikely an unfinished pipeline for export purposes had a significant impact on current gasoline prices. https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310 https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310 "Experts tell The Associated Press that the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation isn’t affecting what’s happening in the oil market today. It was never operational when it was shut down, and was not slated to go into service until 2023, according to a press release from TC Energy, the company constructing the project." "Even if the Keystone XL pipeline had been completed, the amount of oil it was designed to transport would have been a drop in the bucket for U.S. demand, experts noted. The U.S. used nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day last year, while global consumption of oil was near 100 million barrels. The pipeline would have contributed less than 1% to the world supply of oil, according to AP reporting."
  - thepasswordis 4y ago
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      - willcipriano 4y ago
        Gasoline was expensive before the war.
        dfxm12 4y ago
        Yes, because of a worldwide pandemic. https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-prices-to-their-highest-in-7-years/ https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-pr...
        willcipriano 4y ago
causi 4y ago
$11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.
- jeffbee 4y ago
  Oil is the textbook commodity and the expected profit margin on commodities is ~zero. That's the nature of a commodity: a good so interchangeable, with so many competing producers, that the profit margins are inevitably minimized.
  - kgwgk 4y ago
    By ~zero do you mean "covering just the cost of capital over a full cycle"? This is a textbook example of a capital intensive and cyclical industry.
  - _ea1k 4y ago
    The problem is that supply naturally reacts slowly and ~1/10th of the supply was removed from the global market. I've heard people act as if that's a small shift, but its really not small at all over the short term.
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    Not all commodities are equally recoverable at similar costs though, and in a world where we need more oil/copper/iron than can come out of the cheapest mine, there will be profit
- _ea1k 4y ago
  9% is exceptionally high for some industries (eg, commodities or retail). For example, Wal-Mart is closer to 3%. Its not unusual to see targets of close to 4%. I do agree with you that it isn't unexpected during a period of sanctions on a country that produces ~10% of the worldwide oil supply, though. Profits naturally will rise for the remaining players.
  - rabuse 4y ago

jhoward321 4y ago

They didn't redefine recession, that's been defined by NBER. I agree there's some spin, but this statement isn't correct.

junofan 4y ago
The NBER is a private think tank. You may be confusing them with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is an independent federal agency.
- jmalicki 4y ago
  No, it is the NBER. Even the BEA says the NBER officially defines recessions: https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession
tinalumfoil 4y ago
There’s no official definition. It’s like saying you’re sick, you can be sick even if doctors can’t point to what’s wrong with you, and you aren’t necessarily sick even if you have a condition. The two quarters thing is just a really widely recognized rule of thumb. The idea that there’s some sort of official definition every economist agrees on is incorrect. The idea that there’s an organization that owns the word recession is also wrong.

gorwell 4y ago

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

teolandon 4y ago
1984 does not apply here in any way shape or form.
- rabuse 4y ago
  Rewriting definitions to fit a narrative, in my mind, is very applicable.
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    Good thing no one is rewriting definitions. “Recession” has no agreed upon definition, the federal government relies on the NBER to officially tell us if we’re in a recession. They haven’t said so yet.
paganel 4y ago
Next thing they’ll go for the statistics bureau itself in order to massage the numbers closer to the source as possible, no need anymore of this Orwellian double-talk. At least that’s what they were doing in the ‘80s in the Eastern-European country while I was a kid, officially we had record maize and wheat production, in practice bread and cooking oil were rationed.
dmux 4y ago
I don't remember the book ever mentioning architecture, a form of history itself.

ceejayoz 4y ago

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record-profit-115-billion-2022-07-28/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also announced a $6 billion share buyback programme for the current quarter but did not raise its dividend of 25 cents per share. It said shareholder returns would remain 'in excess of 30% of cash flow from operating activities'."

misiti3780 4y ago
what's your point? you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices, it's only the evil+greedy oil execs?
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices Essentially correct. Presidents have very little control over this.
  - misiti3780 4y ago
    Yes, they do. They control things like this. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing-new-oil-and-gas-leases-amid-legal-battle-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing... We could drill our away out of this problem, but we are not, because the the biden administration is being held hostage by the progressive left. And before you start calling me a republican, im not one, but this is just a really stupid idea because it's decisions like this that will cause republicans to be elected in 2022 and 2024 - the american public isnt going to take higher gas prices for the team to fight climate change at this point, they are going to vote people into office that will lower them. biden doesnt realize this because he is surrounded by people that think a like and are too rich to be unaffected by inflation, or he doesnt care -- either way, it s a bad position

duped 4y ago

> and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. We're not seeing a decline in employment or spending. The really bad symptoms of a bad economy aren't there yet. > Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. Which direct actions? And frankly, gasoline prices do not amount to a signficant amount of spending by American families. Food and housing costs are also up and wages down (adjusted for inflation) which account for a lot more money that people actually spend than energy. However gasoline prices are also way down from a month ago, yet food/rent are still up.

nightski 4y ago
It's been suggested the employment is because people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet, not because there are more people getting jobs. Gas affects the prices of nearly everything in the economy so I have no idea how you would conclude it's not a large portion of spending. I work in commodities and we are seeing massive price increases simply due to fuel & freight costs.
- dazhengca 4y ago
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE That doesn’t appear to be the cae
  - nightski 4y ago
    This is good data, but I am guessing it does not take into account the gig economy which I wonder what the effect of that is.
- snikeris 4y ago
  The government can stimulate employment by pumping money into its favored causes. So what you end up with is plenty of people employed but not producing things that people actually want. Unfortunately, we can't even imagine the wonders that people might have produced if their resources were instead allocated towards satisfying consumers.

consumer451 4y ago

> That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. I’ve been hearing from some people that the rise in gas prices is this administration’s fault. However, when I look at prices here in the EU, gas prices have risen much more. Is that the current US admin’s fault as well? What specific tools should the exec use in this situation? EO no more oil exports? EO limiting the record petro industry profits? What is the complete argument for why this is Biden’s fault?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

systemvoltage 4y ago

Wait until you hear about ESG which governs some trillions of dollars of assets. ESG is a way for politicians/elites to force ideology on the public without having to go through the electoral process and gaining public support. This power is exercised through the proxy of corporations. It is anything but democratic. It is totalitarian/authoritarian. Mastercard is already experimenting with CO2 emissions based spending habits: https://www.mastercard.us/en-us/vision/corp-responsibility/priceless-planet/carbon-calculator.html https://www.mastercard.us/en-us/vision/corp-responsibility/p... I am the last one to believe in these types of things but it is getting to a point where I feel like we're being boiled like a frog. Climate/ESG initiatives have lost respect in my eyes, I'd like to support sensible things but this is how we'll get totalitarianism on our hands. Then there is the whole WEF agenda.

AdamN 4y ago

?? Gas is up in the rest of the world too so it's pretty easy to disprove that it's due to the direct actions of the Biden administration.