7 ms·

I believe the conclusion that ROI is poor is misleading: Imagine a new truck company created by one or more tech giants. A) Using state of the art tech. B) As

I believe the conclusion that ROI is poor is misleading: Imagine a new truck company created by one or more tech giants. A) Using state of the art tech. B) Assuming mostly full autonomy. C) Factor in the cost savings. Conclusion is this company would very largely outperform traditional trucking companies in terms of profitability. And it would be extremely scalable. If that holds then it follows that autonomy is simply the last component necessary to be able to disrupt the trucking industry as is. The real question is to what degree autonomy is needed to be able to start doing this.

metadat 4y ago
Uber Freight has already been working on this for years. https://www.uber.com/us/en/freight/ https://www.uber.com/us/en/freight/ (p.s. not an endorsement, I'm personally not a fan of Uber due to their tendency to play the role of Bad-Actor against both their gig-economy workers and customers, even seeking out and leveraging political corruption. Really low standards for ethical code of conduct.)
lazide 4y ago
So if we assume the math checks out, the math checks out? Huh? Autonomous trucks only have a chance if cash is dirt cheap, maintenance on the equipment is low, but labor is very expensive. Which… isn’t what is happening now or likely for awhile.
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  But the math does check out: - truck new: $150,000 - cost of electronics: $50,000 - maintenance: $10,000/yr (over non-automated) - efficiency factor: 2x - wages saved: $75,000/yr So putting it together: $200,000 setup but $65,000/yr saved, before counting efficiency. Adding in that drivers can only drive 11/24 hours (legally), you get $130,000/yr saved and drop your initial capital outlay in half. Automated trucks pay for themselves in just a few years — if not immediately, due to cutting your fleet in half.
  - leereeves 4y ago
    Remote drivers could also drive 24/7, in shifts.
    - lazide 4y ago
      Normal drivers do this right now on some routes. Someone sleeping in the sleeper while the other person drives.
  - smcl 4y ago
    You're assuming that L4 is possible and that this incredible technology would be available for merely $200k per truck. I can't fault your optimism, but I think this might be a little out of step with reality.
    - zmgsabst 4y ago
      What would make that impractical? We’re talking a rack of GPUs for $50k. Nothing about the problem suggests that automated driving can’t be done with a rack of GPUs per vehicle. We have tractors self-driving and doing real-time analysis on a field of view to decide how to treat plants with a lot less compute than that.
      - smcl 4y ago
        This isn't just about the cost of a rack of GPUs. I think you're severely underestimating the difficulty of self-driving, it's still not certain that we'll safely and reliably make autonomous, self-driving cars and trucks. And the cost in R&D to make such a breakthrough, assuming it is possible, is a complete unknown. Slapping an extra $50k on the sticker price of an average truck (which is what I think we both googled to discover it's $150k) and doing some rudimentary maths doesn't result in an answer to the question of whether self-driving trucks are possible, affordable or practical. It just tells you whether some finger-in-the-air numbers you selected sum to >0.
        Thlom 4y ago
Ekaros 4y ago
Single player monopoly scenario does look good. But I always consider at least 3 or maybe even more players. Each invest huge amount of money. Now there is oversupply. They must get at least some of this back. Thus they start to compete with prices. Eventually they end up with pretty slim profit margins.
- BartjeD 4y ago
  And in the process they push out all older trucking companies. Essentially monopolizing the market until the next disruption happens.
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    They push the other companies into recreating the change. They only get to monopolize the market if the other ones do not react.

metadat 4y ago

Uber Freight has already been working on this for years. https://www.uber.com/us/en/freight/ https://www.uber.com/us/en/freight/ (p.s. not an endorsement, I'm personally not a fan of Uber due to their tendency to play the role of Bad-Actor against both their gig-economy workers and customers, even seeking out and leveraging political corruption. Really low standards for ethical code of conduct.)

lazide 4y ago

So if we assume the math checks out, the math checks out? Huh? Autonomous trucks only have a chance if cash is dirt cheap, maintenance on the equipment is low, but labor is very expensive. Which… isn’t what is happening now or likely for awhile.

zmgsabst 4y ago
But the math does check out: - truck new: $150,000 - cost of electronics: $50,000 - maintenance: $10,000/yr (over non-automated) - efficiency factor: 2x - wages saved: $75,000/yr So putting it together: $200,000 setup but $65,000/yr saved, before counting efficiency. Adding in that drivers can only drive 11/24 hours (legally), you get $130,000/yr saved and drop your initial capital outlay in half. Automated trucks pay for themselves in just a few years — if not immediately, due to cutting your fleet in half.
- leereeves 4y ago
  Remote drivers could also drive 24/7, in shifts.
  - lazide 4y ago
    Normal drivers do this right now on some routes. Someone sleeping in the sleeper while the other person drives.
- smcl 4y ago
  You're assuming that L4 is possible and that this incredible technology would be available for merely $200k per truck. I can't fault your optimism, but I think this might be a little out of step with reality.
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    What would make that impractical? We’re talking a rack of GPUs for $50k. Nothing about the problem suggests that automated driving can’t be done with a rack of GPUs per vehicle. We have tractors self-driving and doing real-time analysis on a field of view to decide how to treat plants with a lot less compute than that.
    - smcl 4y ago
      This isn't just about the cost of a rack of GPUs. I think you're severely underestimating the difficulty of self-driving, it's still not certain that we'll safely and reliably make autonomous, self-driving cars and trucks. And the cost in R&D to make such a breakthrough, assuming it is possible, is a complete unknown. Slapping an extra $50k on the sticker price of an average truck (which is what I think we both googled to discover it's $150k) and doing some rudimentary maths doesn't result in an answer to the question of whether self-driving trucks are possible, affordable or practical. It just tells you whether some finger-in-the-air numbers you selected sum to >0.
      - Thlom 4y ago

Ekaros 4y ago

Single player monopoly scenario does look good. But I always consider at least 3 or maybe even more players. Each invest huge amount of money. Now there is oversupply. They must get at least some of this back. Thus they start to compete with prices. Eventually they end up with pretty slim profit margins.

BartjeD 4y ago
And in the process they push out all older trucking companies. Essentially monopolizing the market until the next disruption happens.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  They push the other companies into recreating the change. They only get to monopolize the market if the other ones do not react.