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This was known for two years. Markets are breeding grounds for zoonotic diseases. They often even jump from human to animal and back. The real question is--how

This was known for two years. Markets are breeding grounds for zoonotic diseases. They often even jump from human to animal and back. The real question is--how did the virus get to the live market? The study accurately says, "While there is insufficient evidence to define upstream events, and exact circumstances remain obscure, our analyses indicate that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 occurred via the live wildlife trade in China, and show that the Huanan market was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic."

throwaway4good 4y ago
It says in the last two paragraphs: "The sustained presence of a potential source of virus transmission into the human population in late 2019, plausibly from infected live mammals sold at the Huanan market, offers an explanation of our findings and the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The pattern of COVID-19 cases reported for the Huanan market, with the earliest cases in the same part of the market as the wildlife sales and evidence of at least two introductions (38), resembles the multiple cross-species transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 subsequently observed during the pandemic from animals to humans on mink farms (46), and from infected hamsters to humans in the pet trade (47). There was an extensive network of wildlife farms in western Hubei province, including hundreds of thousands of raccoon dogs on farms in Enshi prefecture, which supplied the Huanan market (48). This region of Hubei contains extensive cave complexes housing Rhinolophus bats, which carry SARSr-CoVs (49). SARS-CoV-1 was recovered from farmed masked palm civets from Hubei in 2003 and 2004 (20). The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 (48), apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 (7). Live animals sold at the market (Table 1) were apparently not sampled either. By contrast, during the SARS-CoV-1 outbreaks farms and markets remained open for over a year after the first human cases occurred, allowing sampling of viruses from infected animals (20). The live animal trade and live animal markets are a common theme in virus spillover events (21–23, 50), with markets such as the Huanan market selling live mammals being in the highest risk category (51). The events leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic mirror the SARS-CoV-1 outbreaks from 2002-2004, which were traced to infected animals in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Hubei provinces in China (20). Maximum effort must now be applied to elucidate the upstream events that might have brought SARS-CoV-2 into the Huanan market, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. To reduce the risk of future pandemics we must understand, and then limit, the routes and opportunities for virus spillover."
- thakoppno 4y ago
  > However, the observation that the preponderance of early cases were linked to the Huanan market does not establish that the pandemic originated there.
mgamache 4y ago
Sorry this is an unscientific conclusion. The lab leak is more plausible based on the animals required and known and proposed research at that facility. It's simply another polemic. Without information / data from the lab you cannot claim one is more probable.
- WaxProlix 4y ago
  > The lab leak is more plausible > you cannot claim one is more probable Am I missing something here?
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    Nope - HN is one of the worst 'smart' places on the internet for Covid discussion. Every single thread immediately devolves into completely ascientific conspiracy ranting.
    - reglkj45y 4y ago
    - ravitation 4y ago
      This is also not limited to just COVID discussion either. Most things that aren't somehow related to day-to-day software development devolve into unsubstantiated, or ill-informed, "ranting." It's a source of constant disappointment.
      - dwringer 4y ago
        > Most things that aren't somehow related to day-to-day software development And especially the things that are. That's what makes HN special.
        ravitation 4y ago
        These are at least often informed by (overly specific) personal anecdotes.
rob_c 4y ago
> The real question is--how did the virus get to the live market? The chances are we'll never know, it may have spread through here (despite no real action to stop this form of trading from any of the wonderlfully eclectic groups still engaged in it). > While there is insufficient evidence to define upstream events, Also, we're not brave enough to say read the evidence it came from here. We're only brave enough to say it's the 'epicenter' of an early outbreak to keep from annoying those who don't co-operate anyway.
rr888 4y ago
> how did the virus get to the live market? My guess is that someone was selling animals from the lab that were supposed to be destroyed.
- siva7 4y ago
  That’s an interesting theory and i suppose not even that far fetched
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    It is far fetched. Labs typically engage in destructive testing of their animals.
    - noworriesnate 4y ago
      This lab was a joint venture of the French and Chinese. The French pulled out and sounded the alarm about how careless the Chinese were. So yeah it’s very plausible that such flagrant violations took place.
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        It's not about violations. The animals are killed because the nature of the data taken from them requires them not to be alive.
        tradertef 4y ago
        Can they sell killed animals (in the live market)?
        sudosysgen 4y ago
        The whole point of live markets is that the animals are, well, live. And I would imagine they'd have a hard time selling dissected animals.
anon23anon 4y ago
Can't world leaders put pressure on china to clean up these wild life markets? Like better health practices and what not?
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  Aren't they doing that since 2020? AFAIK those markets are out-right banned already.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    Yeah, they were meant to be largely banned since SARS1, the presence of raccoon dogs and foxes at the market in Wuhan is deeply problematic -- all of the people skeptical of China can still be skeptical!
- pipeline_peak 4y ago
  They grow garlic with sewer water and the air is polluted because they're cranking out everything the world buys in suicide netted factories. China is a developing country, do you think government officials are going to go all around regulating wild life markets along with every other threat? They have the environmental and mental health concern of 1960's America.
  - HPsquared 4y ago
    1960s America led to 1970s America, which had a lot more concern for the environment. It's inevitable that as problems accumulate, people affected by them will want to do something about it.
    - pipeline_peak 4y ago
      1970's America wasn't anywhere near as poverty struck as China. It's really difficult to care about the world around you when you can't even take care at home.
      - 4y ago
throwaways85989 4y ago
The labs janitor sold dead animals for a side hustle, cheaper then cremation and the lower caste is not properly educated about bacterias, viruses and bio hazards. (Wild speculation - may contain novel truth contamination)

throwaway4good 4y ago

It says in the last two paragraphs: "The sustained presence of a potential source of virus transmission into the human population in late 2019, plausibly from infected live mammals sold at the Huanan market, offers an explanation of our findings and the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The pattern of COVID-19 cases reported for the Huanan market, with the earliest cases in the same part of the market as the wildlife sales and evidence of at least two introductions (38), resembles the multiple cross-species transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 subsequently observed during the pandemic from animals to humans on mink farms (46), and from infected hamsters to humans in the pet trade (47). There was an extensive network of wildlife farms in western Hubei province, including hundreds of thousands of raccoon dogs on farms in Enshi prefecture, which supplied the Huanan market (48). This region of Hubei contains extensive cave complexes housing Rhinolophus bats, which carry SARSr-CoVs (49). SARS-CoV-1 was recovered from farmed masked palm civets from Hubei in 2003 and 2004 (20). The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 (48), apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 (7). Live animals sold at the market (Table 1) were apparently not sampled either. By contrast, during the SARS-CoV-1 outbreaks farms and markets remained open for over a year after the first human cases occurred, allowing sampling of viruses from infected animals (20). The live animal trade and live animal markets are a common theme in virus spillover events (21–23, 50), with markets such as the Huanan market selling live mammals being in the highest risk category (51). The events leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic mirror the SARS-CoV-1 outbreaks from 2002-2004, which were traced to infected animals in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Hubei provinces in China (20). Maximum effort must now be applied to elucidate the upstream events that might have brought SARS-CoV-2 into the Huanan market, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. To reduce the risk of future pandemics we must understand, and then limit, the routes and opportunities for virus spillover."

thakoppno 4y ago
> However, the observation that the preponderance of early cases were linked to the Huanan market does not establish that the pandemic originated there.

mgamache 4y ago

Sorry this is an unscientific conclusion. The lab leak is more plausible based on the animals required and known and proposed research at that facility. It's simply another polemic. Without information / data from the lab you cannot claim one is more probable.

WaxProlix 4y ago
> The lab leak is more plausible > you cannot claim one is more probable Am I missing something here?
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  Nope - HN is one of the worst 'smart' places on the internet for Covid discussion. Every single thread immediately devolves into completely ascientific conspiracy ranting.
  - reglkj45y 4y ago
  - ravitation 4y ago
    This is also not limited to just COVID discussion either. Most things that aren't somehow related to day-to-day software development devolve into unsubstantiated, or ill-informed, "ranting." It's a source of constant disappointment.
    - dwringer 4y ago
      > Most things that aren't somehow related to day-to-day software development And especially the things that are. That's what makes HN special.
      - ravitation 4y ago
        These are at least often informed by (overly specific) personal anecdotes.

rob_c 4y ago

> The real question is--how did the virus get to the live market? The chances are we'll never know, it may have spread through here (despite no real action to stop this form of trading from any of the wonderlfully eclectic groups still engaged in it). > While there is insufficient evidence to define upstream events, Also, we're not brave enough to say read the evidence it came from here. We're only brave enough to say it's the 'epicenter' of an early outbreak to keep from annoying those who don't co-operate anyway.

rr888 4y ago

> how did the virus get to the live market? My guess is that someone was selling animals from the lab that were supposed to be destroyed.

siva7 4y ago
That’s an interesting theory and i suppose not even that far fetched
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  It is far fetched. Labs typically engage in destructive testing of their animals.
  - noworriesnate 4y ago
    This lab was a joint venture of the French and Chinese. The French pulled out and sounded the alarm about how careless the Chinese were. So yeah it’s very plausible that such flagrant violations took place.
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      It's not about violations. The animals are killed because the nature of the data taken from them requires them not to be alive.
      - tradertef 4y ago
        Can they sell killed animals (in the live market)?
        sudosysgen 4y ago
        The whole point of live markets is that the animals are, well, live. And I would imagine they'd have a hard time selling dissected animals.

anon23anon 4y ago

Can't world leaders put pressure on china to clean up these wild life markets? Like better health practices and what not?

marcosdumay 4y ago
Aren't they doing that since 2020? AFAIK those markets are out-right banned already.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  Yeah, they were meant to be largely banned since SARS1, the presence of raccoon dogs and foxes at the market in Wuhan is deeply problematic -- all of the people skeptical of China can still be skeptical!
pipeline_peak 4y ago
They grow garlic with sewer water and the air is polluted because they're cranking out everything the world buys in suicide netted factories. China is a developing country, do you think government officials are going to go all around regulating wild life markets along with every other threat? They have the environmental and mental health concern of 1960's America.
- HPsquared 4y ago
  1960s America led to 1970s America, which had a lot more concern for the environment. It's inevitable that as problems accumulate, people affected by them will want to do something about it.
  - pipeline_peak 4y ago
    1970's America wasn't anywhere near as poverty struck as China. It's really difficult to care about the world around you when you can't even take care at home.
    - 4y ago

throwaways85989 4y ago

The labs janitor sold dead animals for a side hustle, cheaper then cremation and the lower caste is not properly educated about bacterias, viruses and bio hazards. (Wild speculation - may contain novel truth contamination)