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You are more likely to die sure. But this is kind of lying with statistics. Cars are a huge issue though that are largely ignored in society, which I won't disp

You are more likely to die sure. But this is kind of lying with statistics. Cars are a huge issue though that are largely ignored in society, which I won't dispute. BUT lets look at what people talk about when they say safe. They don't necessarily mean just that they won't be murdered or not. But also if they will randomly be jumped, robbed, burgled, punched in the knock out game or hit with a brick, etc. Non-violent crime, and violent but not murder crime is probably much higher in the cities. And I say this as someone that likes cities.

danenania 4y ago
I haven't seen data on this, but my intuition is the opposite: that all violent crime would tend to be correlated with the murder rate. That's partly because any violent crime can easily escalate to a murder. Maybe I'm wrong though. I'm not finding a clear answer with some cursory googling, but I'd imagine this has been studied.
- hardolaf 4y ago
  Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, the murder rate was highly correlated with the violent crime rate. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became less correlated as more people died due to a lack of available emergency healthcare while hospital systems were overloaded.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    What? Source please
- bpodgursky 4y ago
  This would be true if crimes were all reported, but most low-level violence isn't.
  - bobthepanda 4y ago
    There’s also enough variance in how things get classified by police departments that a lot of studies just end up counting murder and manslaughter since those are pretty standard and hard to fudge.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  I think there is probably some correlation there. That said, if you ignore NY, Central counties of large metro lead the way in homocide and therefore would likely lead the way in non letal violence. The country and fringe suburbs are much safer on average from homicide by there on measure. It is only when you add in other causes you see deaths in the country rise.
  - leereeves 4y ago
    Exactly. And I think the really interesting question here is: why is the murder rate in New York City so much lower than in other large metro areas?
    - s1artibartfast 4y ago
      It's a really good question. If I were to guess I would think that one factor would be cost of living pushing high-risk individuals out of the city. Violent crime is closely tied to economic status. Maybe there's some big policy wins in there too but that is where I would start.
      - danenania 4y ago
        High population density seems like another likely factor. In a lot of NYC, and especially in Manhattan, there are people out on the streets at all hours. I assume that discourages crime.
jeffbee 4y ago
It’s cars that scare me and I’m not afraid of being killed. Car violence strikes pretty much at random. Homicide victims usually did something that enhanced their risk. You can cut your chances of being killed by orders of magnitude simply by not being a criminal or associating with criminals. There is no corresponding action you can take to be safe from road accidents.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  >There is no corresponding action you can take to be safe from road accidents. I think you can cut your chances of being killed in a road accident significantly by controlling your alcohol intake and using common sense. Something like 60% of pedestrian road deaths are intoxicated pedestrians.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    By the same hand, a very high % of those murder victims were probably engaged in some criminal activity or the victim of intimate partner violence, both of which are not particularly worrisome to me.
    - s1artibartfast 4y ago
      Sure, I think there are certainly risk factors on both sides.
  - username190 4y ago
    > Something like 60% of pedestrian road deaths are intoxicated pedestrians. Do you have a source for this? I looked up your claim and found this study from the NHTSA[0] (pg 23), which does say that 60% of pedestrians hit have a BAC over 0.08; the catch is, that number is specifically for crashes which occur between 12:00AM and 3:00AM. From pg 26 - "Of the pedestrians involved [in fatal crashes across all hours], 33 percent were intoxicated, with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.08 grams per deciliter (g/dl) or greater." Since the NHSTA study I linked was conducted in 2001, it's possible that new information has been made available in recent years; if that is the case and that's where your data comes from, feel free to link. [0] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/809456&usg=AOvVaw1En4uyCUtdYxRwQxBGm8bL https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8094... - pg 23

danenania 4y ago

I haven't seen data on this, but my intuition is the opposite: that all violent crime would tend to be correlated with the murder rate. That's partly because any violent crime can easily escalate to a murder. Maybe I'm wrong though. I'm not finding a clear answer with some cursory googling, but I'd imagine this has been studied.

hardolaf 4y ago
Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, the murder rate was highly correlated with the violent crime rate. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became less correlated as more people died due to a lack of available emergency healthcare while hospital systems were overloaded.
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  What? Source please
bpodgursky 4y ago
This would be true if crimes were all reported, but most low-level violence isn't.
- bobthepanda 4y ago
  There’s also enough variance in how things get classified by police departments that a lot of studies just end up counting murder and manslaughter since those are pretty standard and hard to fudge.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
I think there is probably some correlation there. That said, if you ignore NY, Central counties of large metro lead the way in homocide and therefore would likely lead the way in non letal violence. The country and fringe suburbs are much safer on average from homicide by there on measure. It is only when you add in other causes you see deaths in the country rise.
- leereeves 4y ago
  Exactly. And I think the really interesting question here is: why is the murder rate in New York City so much lower than in other large metro areas?
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    It's a really good question. If I were to guess I would think that one factor would be cost of living pushing high-risk individuals out of the city. Violent crime is closely tied to economic status. Maybe there's some big policy wins in there too but that is where I would start.
    - danenania 4y ago
      High population density seems like another likely factor. In a lot of NYC, and especially in Manhattan, there are people out on the streets at all hours. I assume that discourages crime.

jeffbee 4y ago

It’s cars that scare me and I’m not afraid of being killed. Car violence strikes pretty much at random. Homicide victims usually did something that enhanced their risk. You can cut your chances of being killed by orders of magnitude simply by not being a criminal or associating with criminals. There is no corresponding action you can take to be safe from road accidents.

s1artibartfast 4y ago
>There is no corresponding action you can take to be safe from road accidents. I think you can cut your chances of being killed in a road accident significantly by controlling your alcohol intake and using common sense. Something like 60% of pedestrian road deaths are intoxicated pedestrians.
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  By the same hand, a very high % of those murder victims were probably engaged in some criminal activity or the victim of intimate partner violence, both of which are not particularly worrisome to me.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    Sure, I think there are certainly risk factors on both sides.
- username190 4y ago
  > Something like 60% of pedestrian road deaths are intoxicated pedestrians. Do you have a source for this? I looked up your claim and found this study from the NHTSA[0] (pg 23), which does say that 60% of pedestrians hit have a BAC over 0.08; the catch is, that number is specifically for crashes which occur between 12:00AM and 3:00AM. From pg 26 - "Of the pedestrians involved [in fatal crashes across all hours], 33 percent were intoxicated, with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.08 grams per deciliter (g/dl) or greater." Since the NHSTA study I linked was conducted in 2001, it's possible that new information has been made available in recent years; if that is the case and that's where your data comes from, feel free to link. [0] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/809456&usg=AOvVaw1En4uyCUtdYxRwQxBGm8bL https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8094... - pg 23