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Shopify stock is down 80% over the last 12 months, but their P/E ratio is still 250. I predict more rounds of layoffs for Shopify, and with less generous sever

Shopify stock is down 80% over the last 12 months, but their P/E ratio is still 250. I predict more rounds of layoffs for Shopify, and with less generous severance packages. This company is valued as if they are a hyper growth startup, and I just don't see it. Good luck to anyone buying or holding this stock.

itsoktocry 4y ago
>This company is valued as if they are a hyper growth startup Agreed. I think Shopify is a great product, but they were huge beneficiaries of the COVID-19 lockdowns and Robinhood culture of 2020/2021 (their only profitable years?).
- jesterson 4y ago
  Wonder what makes you think of Shopify as a great product? I work with it on quite a high level position and everything about it is plainly terrible: support (terrible, only few people that care can help), management (many promises - zero delivery), tech side (team is suffering from ways their API works).
adventured 4y ago
They're this era's Nortel (Canada has a primo bubble stock with each big run; during the housing bubble era it was Blackberry). There's very little that is special about their business. They have no great competitive moat. It hasn't even demonstrated good margins ala an eBay. The hype started with Amazon's stock liftoff, which was overwhelmingly due to AWS not retail. Investors went looking for the next Amazon in ecommerce and foolishly bought into the premise that Shopify would be that. Now all the bubbly ecommerce valuations are collapsing, as they should. Stocks like Etsy and Fiverr still need cut in half again at a minimum. Shopify is worth three to four times sales at most. Compress that further as their growth slows. The stock will stagnate for at least a decade vs the highs it hit during this bubble.
- parkingrift 4y ago
  I mostly agree. I personally think Shopify should be valued at around $3-5 billion at most.
- TMWNN 4y ago
  >They're this era's Nortel (Canada has a primo bubble stock with each big run; during the housing bubble era it was Blackberry). It's interesting how Canada has exactly one each time around; no more, no less. While having one is certainly better than the average of zero for non-US developed countries, and having each be in a different sector is also good, I suspect that each also benefits/benefited from being the hot tech company that those in Canada had to go to if they didn't/couldn't move to the US. (Elsewhere people have mentioned Shopify being known for lowballing salaries.) >There's very little that is special about their business. They have no great competitive moat. I don't know. Shopify is known as the company you go to for quickly setting up an ecommerce storefront. Yes, there are competitors, but Shopify seems to be the brand name in the space. Unlike Apple vis-a-vis Blackberry, there doesn't seem to be great risk of someone coming in with revolutionary technology and immense market reach that upsets the field overnight; we're coming up to 30 years after the release of Netscape, after all.

itsoktocry 4y ago

>This company is valued as if they are a hyper growth startup Agreed. I think Shopify is a great product, but they were huge beneficiaries of the COVID-19 lockdowns and Robinhood culture of 2020/2021 (their only profitable years?).

jesterson 4y ago
Wonder what makes you think of Shopify as a great product? I work with it on quite a high level position and everything about it is plainly terrible: support (terrible, only few people that care can help), management (many promises - zero delivery), tech side (team is suffering from ways their API works).

adventured 4y ago

They're this era's Nortel (Canada has a primo bubble stock with each big run; during the housing bubble era it was Blackberry). There's very little that is special about their business. They have no great competitive moat. It hasn't even demonstrated good margins ala an eBay. The hype started with Amazon's stock liftoff, which was overwhelmingly due to AWS not retail. Investors went looking for the next Amazon in ecommerce and foolishly bought into the premise that Shopify would be that. Now all the bubbly ecommerce valuations are collapsing, as they should. Stocks like Etsy and Fiverr still need cut in half again at a minimum. Shopify is worth three to four times sales at most. Compress that further as their growth slows. The stock will stagnate for at least a decade vs the highs it hit during this bubble.

parkingrift 4y ago
I mostly agree. I personally think Shopify should be valued at around $3-5 billion at most.
TMWNN 4y ago
>They're this era's Nortel (Canada has a primo bubble stock with each big run; during the housing bubble era it was Blackberry). It's interesting how Canada has exactly one each time around; no more, no less. While having one is certainly better than the average of zero for non-US developed countries, and having each be in a different sector is also good, I suspect that each also benefits/benefited from being the hot tech company that those in Canada had to go to if they didn't/couldn't move to the US. (Elsewhere people have mentioned Shopify being known for lowballing salaries.) >There's very little that is special about their business. They have no great competitive moat. I don't know. Shopify is known as the company you go to for quickly setting up an ecommerce storefront. Yes, there are competitors, but Shopify seems to be the brand name in the space. Unlike Apple vis-a-vis Blackberry, there doesn't seem to be great risk of someone coming in with revolutionary technology and immense market reach that upsets the field overnight; we're coming up to 30 years after the release of Netscape, after all.