4 ms·

My happiness at work drastically improved when I started giving 99th-percentile estimates instead of medians. It turned out management usually didn't want to k

My happiness at work drastically improved when I started giving 99th-percentile estimates instead of medians. It turned out management usually didn't want to know what something was most likely to cost. They wanted to know what they could reliably plan for and promise to clients. They treated my median estimates as deadlines and I ended up working a lot of extra hours. With 99% estimates, management stayed happy and I seldom had to work late. Usually I had extra time. Sometimes I gave that time back to management, but for some managers that had a downside because they would push back more on my estimates. So instead, I used the extra time to reduce technical debt, automate routine tasks, or improve my skills. That reduced the risks of future projects and improved my productivity. In the end, I ended up delivering more this way.

HWR_14 4y ago
I think 99th-percent estimate is a great point to make. You said some managers pushed back on estimates if you gave that time back. Did you tell them they were 99-percent estimates?
- DennisP 4y ago
  Generally I told them my estimate was what I could commit to, and allowed that it was possible I'd finish in less time.
e12e 4y ago
I recently came across this: "Bye Bye Velocity! Kanban metrics as an alternative to story points & velocity.": https://youtu.be/3IEr9rKir08 https://youtu.be/3IEr9rKir08
- voxl 4y ago
  Velocity is an unavoidable metric, you can count lines added and deleted, tickets moved to done, commits added, it doesn't matter these are all proxies for velocity.
roeles 4y ago
In my PSM1 course this reaction was mentioned as being pretty standard when teams are judged by whether they make their estimations a reality. I have seen this happen in my team. I am off course happy that it works for you, but it hints that there might be underlying issues to me. Did you not get time for technical debt before you switched to 99% estimates?

HWR_14 4y ago

I think 99th-percent estimate is a great point to make. You said some managers pushed back on estimates if you gave that time back. Did you tell them they were 99-percent estimates?

DennisP 4y ago
Generally I told them my estimate was what I could commit to, and allowed that it was possible I'd finish in less time.

e12e 4y ago

I recently came across this: "Bye Bye Velocity! Kanban metrics as an alternative to story points & velocity.": https://youtu.be/3IEr9rKir08 https://youtu.be/3IEr9rKir08

voxl 4y ago
Velocity is an unavoidable metric, you can count lines added and deleted, tickets moved to done, commits added, it doesn't matter these are all proxies for velocity.

roeles 4y ago

In my PSM1 course this reaction was mentioned as being pretty standard when teams are judged by whether they make their estimations a reality. I have seen this happen in my team. I am off course happy that it works for you, but it hints that there might be underlying issues to me. Did you not get time for technical debt before you switched to 99% estimates?