5 ms·

This is a lagging indicator. A more leading indicator is "Countries who have reached peak births". The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby

This is a lagging indicator. A more leading indicator is "Countries who have reached peak births". The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby" - though this will be a long plateau.

bpodgursky 4y ago
Not sure why this is downvoted. It's 100% true that the child and working-age population shrinks long before the absolute population starts to dip, and in many ways that's more meaningful.
- algo_trader 4y ago
  In fact, shrinking population is further deferred by improving health and longevity. This means that many countries which seemingly stable population are in fact growing older and older, leading to an eventual cliff. Also, title should be changed. This is "Population decline projections for 2050".
- steve76 4y ago
ekpyrotic 4y ago
That wouldn't capture the main driver of population decline for most these countries. Seems like the primary cause in most cases is /not/ the fact that deaths are outpacing births but, instead, that emigration is outpacing immigration. Most of these countries are low-income nations in the EU whose workforce is now leaving to flock to higher-income countries. We're basically seeing a brain drain in EU countries that need that workforce most to drive future growth. One of the unintended consequences of EU membership.
- algo_trader 4y ago
  > are low-income nations in the EU whose workforce This is true, but it is localized and a one-time shock. Portugal, Italy, Greece have had sub replacement fertility for 40 years already. China, Japan, South Korea - urbanized, industrialized, economically growing countries. The generally accepted causes are urbanization, reduced religion, education of women, which to re-enforce each other.
canniballectern 4y ago
I guess the missing piece from this would be trends in immigration rates. Otherwise countries like Canada would appear to be shrinking, when in fact they're growing overall.
stevenjgarner 4y ago
> Countries who have reached peak births: "When will the world reach ‘peak child’?" [0] Also top 10 countries with lowest birth rate [1]: - Monaco - 6.63. - South Korea - 6.89. - Andorra - 6.91. - Japan - 7.00. - Taiwan (limited recognition) - 7.43. - Greece - 7.72. - Puerto Rico - 7.90. - Portugal - 8.02. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/peak-child https://ourworldindata.org/peak-child [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rate-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rat...
- stevenjgarner 4y ago
  Perhaps of more significance, the top 10 countries with populations over 10 million with the lowest birth rates (same sources): - South Korea - 51.78 million - 6.89. - Japan - 125.8 million - 7.00. - Taiwan - 23.57 million - 7.43. - Greece - 10.72 million - 7.72. - Portugal - 10.31 million - 8.02. - Italy - 59,037,474 - 8.5 - Germany - 83,369,843 - 8.6 - Romania - 19,659,267 - 8.7 - Spain - 47,558,630 - 9 - Czech Republic - 10,493,986 - 9.2
- readthenotes1 4y ago
  Interesting that you put an asterisk on Taiwan, which believes it is its own country, but not Puerto Rico, which has never been its own country.
  - stevenjgarner 4y ago
    I agree - that information is all copied with fidelity from the cited sources. Not my own.
spywaregorilla 4y ago
A lagging indicator of what? The measure in question is change in population...
patrec 4y ago
> The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby" - though this will be a long plateau. How did you arrive at the strange idea that we are approaching "peak baby"? Barring some cataclysm, the only plausible mechanism to reach "peak baby" is hitting permanent Malthusian limits.

This is a lagging indicator. A more leading indicator is "Countries who have reached peak births". The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby" - though this will be a long plateau.

bpodgursky 4y ago

Not sure why this is downvoted. It's 100% true that the child and working-age population shrinks long before the absolute population starts to dip, and in many ways that's more meaningful.

algo_trader 4y ago
In fact, shrinking population is further deferred by improving health and longevity. This means that many countries which seemingly stable population are in fact growing older and older, leading to an eventual cliff. Also, title should be changed. This is "Population decline projections for 2050".
steve76 4y ago

ekpyrotic 4y ago

That wouldn't capture the main driver of population decline for most these countries. Seems like the primary cause in most cases is /not/ the fact that deaths are outpacing births but, instead, that emigration is outpacing immigration. Most of these countries are low-income nations in the EU whose workforce is now leaving to flock to higher-income countries. We're basically seeing a brain drain in EU countries that need that workforce most to drive future growth. One of the unintended consequences of EU membership.

algo_trader 4y ago
> are low-income nations in the EU whose workforce This is true, but it is localized and a one-time shock. Portugal, Italy, Greece have had sub replacement fertility for 40 years already. China, Japan, South Korea - urbanized, industrialized, economically growing countries. The generally accepted causes are urbanization, reduced religion, education of women, which to re-enforce each other.

canniballectern 4y ago

I guess the missing piece from this would be trends in immigration rates. Otherwise countries like Canada would appear to be shrinking, when in fact they're growing overall.

stevenjgarner 4y ago

> Countries who have reached peak births: "When will the world reach ‘peak child’?" [0] Also top 10 countries with lowest birth rate [1]: - Monaco - 6.63. - South Korea - 6.89. - Andorra - 6.91. - Japan - 7.00. - Taiwan (limited recognition) - 7.43. - Greece - 7.72. - Puerto Rico - 7.90. - Portugal - 8.02. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/peak-child https://ourworldindata.org/peak-child [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rate-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rat...

stevenjgarner 4y ago
Perhaps of more significance, the top 10 countries with populations over 10 million with the lowest birth rates (same sources): - South Korea - 51.78 million - 6.89. - Japan - 125.8 million - 7.00. - Taiwan - 23.57 million - 7.43. - Greece - 10.72 million - 7.72. - Portugal - 10.31 million - 8.02. - Italy - 59,037,474 - 8.5 - Germany - 83,369,843 - 8.6 - Romania - 19,659,267 - 8.7 - Spain - 47,558,630 - 9 - Czech Republic - 10,493,986 - 9.2
readthenotes1 4y ago
Interesting that you put an asterisk on Taiwan, which believes it is its own country, but not Puerto Rico, which has never been its own country.
- stevenjgarner 4y ago
  I agree - that information is all copied with fidelity from the cited sources. Not my own.

spywaregorilla 4y ago

A lagging indicator of what? The measure in question is change in population...

patrec 4y ago

> The world itself has reached, or is approaching, "peak baby" - though this will be a long plateau. How did you arrive at the strange idea that we are approaching "peak baby"? Barring some cataclysm, the only plausible mechanism to reach "peak baby" is hitting permanent Malthusian limits.