9 ms·

Covid deaths: Simple solution, lockdown, virtual learning, 6-feet apart, cancel sports and after-school activities, miss graduations, etc. All the mental fallou

by ccn0p 4y ago

Covid deaths: Simple solution, lockdown, virtual learning, 6-feet apart, cancel sports and after-school activities, miss graduations, etc. All the mental fallout from this: Too complex, just a way of life. Drip drip drip.

wrycoder 4y ago
Well, those solutions don't really work because of the contagiousness, so they are going out of favor. What is needed is effective prophylactics (beyond mRNA vaccines) and effective treatment. But the effort spent on that is, sadly, minimal.
- bsder 4y ago
  Exactly. For example, how many buildings have UV sterilized return air, now? A tiny, tiny fraction. And this would benefit us for way more than just Covid.
  - Enginerrrd 4y ago
    Honestly, I don't think UV return air would work as well as you think. The real solution is increased ventilation rates. UV bulbs are expensive (and invisible unless you get to poke around a buildings mechanical room.), they need to be replaced typically ~annually (they won't be). If they get dust on them, they don't work as well. Etc. etc. And here's the issue: To actually deal with high concentration infectious aerosols you need to get that air out of the room ASAP. (i.e. negative pressure rooms) If you can sterilize the return air that's great, but frankly I suspect dilution and air movement is going to be the dominant effect in reducing infection chains.
    - MichaelCollins 4y ago
      I think opening up windows is the answer, but that would mean accepting either a loss of climate control, or greatly increased energy costs. (I'd prefer the former, in all but the absolute hottest summer days or the deadliest cold.)
      - ccn0p 4y ago
        The most interesting phenomenon I noticed was how unquestionably loyal many places were to the mask mandates, yet kept all their windows shut even on totally nice days out. I was in a gym that required everyone to wear a mask (yes, while working out / on a treadmill / etc), but all the large windows were shut, and nobody seemed to care or notice. No staff, no patrons, nobody. So I walked around and opened all the windows. And this wasn't March 2020. This was like end of 2021. I'm not claiming to be some pandemic savant, nor getting into a mask debate, but what shocked me was the "group psychosis" on masking at the expense of proven and incredibly easy mitigation efforts like opening windows!
    - bsder 4y ago
      Is all this true for modern UV LEDs?
      - trashcan 4y ago
        In my house at least I have a UV light in my central HVAC that is supposed to be replaced every five years. Maybe it is different for commercial buildings, but commercial buildings also tend to have professional maintenance.
      - quantum_magpie 4y ago
        You need UV-C for sterilization and there are no LEDs emitting that.
        MoreSEMI 4y ago
        This is no longer true. Vishay and Nichia[1] for example, produce leds in the UVC range. [1]https://led-ld.nichia.co.jp/en/product/uv_uvc.html https://led-ld.nichia.co.jp/en/product/uv_uvc.html
  - stjohnswarts 4y ago
    I don't want UV sterilized air. The war on germs is one we can't win. If everything is sterilized then our immune systems will only weaken and when we do come across a flu virus outdoors it will us 10x harder and potentially kill us.
anthonypasq 4y ago
its actually remarkable that people still believe this after 2+ years
ansible 4y ago
And if we hadn't done that stuff, we would have seen even more than the 1M deaths we did experience. Things could have gotten significantly worse as the hospitals filled up and space was not available for Covid patients and all the other people with heart attacks and other medical conditions. Even as it is, the medical staff have been overworked and extremely stressed. They've been quitting the medical field in very high numbers: https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/04/health-care-workers-series-part-2-workforce/ https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/04/health-care-workers-se... Yes, because of the lockdown, we have paid a high price, but don't just dismiss the higher price we would have paid if no mitigations had been attempted.
- WASDx 4y ago
  Also known as the preparedness paradox.
- nradov 4y ago
  Wrong. Most of the non-pharmaceutical interventions were pointless pandemic theater. You can find examples of other countries that took less extreme measures and still had lower death rates.
  - jamiek88 4y ago
    Please name them.
  - fnord123 4y ago
    Name two countries/areas that you want to use as an example in this argument. Otherwise if anyone else gives a counterexample you can easily move goalposts on them.
    - carlivar 4y ago
      That's pretty easy. Sweden is the poster child of a rational covid19 response. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_... Sweden deaths per million: 1834 U.S. deaths per million: 3043 However you can also choose various European countries that avoided masking children and minimized school disruption. France and UK for starters, but also all the Nordic countries. Sweden being quite different from the other Nordic countries, but all of them being consistent in avoiding school disruption or masking children. Most of Europe does not recommend vaccinating young children either. France deaths per million: 2242 Denmark deaths per million: 1122
staticautomatic 4y ago
Generally those things are helpful but I think China has pretty well demonstrated that there’s no alternative universe where fully locking everything down eliminates Covid.
- paulryanrogers 4y ago
  Or at least not without perfect worldwide coordination. And assuming there are no animal reservoirs
- alex_young 4y ago
  China represents 18% of the world's population, yet 0.07% of COVID-19 fatalities. Seems like there is some value in their approach.
  - swagasaurus-rex 4y ago
    Like pretending there are no covid deaths?
    - alex_young 4y ago
      Surely they aren't covering up that many deaths right? The US is 4% of the world population, and represents 16% of the fatalities. If China had our rate of fatalities that would indicate that they are hiding 4.3 million deaths somehow.
      - dahdum 4y ago
        Last year the Economist estimated them at about 1.7 million excess mortality. There is extremely strong pressure from the top down to minimize the public death count. The credibility of the party (and Xi personally) relies on their Zero Covid policy being seen as effective. I wouldn't even call it a cover up, there are just no incentives to accurately report and many reasons to downplay aggressively.
      - nephanth 4y ago

by ccn0p 4y ago

wrycoder 4y ago

Well, those solutions don't really work because of the contagiousness, so they are going out of favor. What is needed is effective prophylactics (beyond mRNA vaccines) and effective treatment. But the effort spent on that is, sadly, minimal.

bsder 4y ago
Exactly. For example, how many buildings have UV sterilized return air, now? A tiny, tiny fraction. And this would benefit us for way more than just Covid.
- Enginerrrd 4y ago
  Honestly, I don't think UV return air would work as well as you think. The real solution is increased ventilation rates. UV bulbs are expensive (and invisible unless you get to poke around a buildings mechanical room.), they need to be replaced typically ~annually (they won't be). If they get dust on them, they don't work as well. Etc. etc. And here's the issue: To actually deal with high concentration infectious aerosols you need to get that air out of the room ASAP. (i.e. negative pressure rooms) If you can sterilize the return air that's great, but frankly I suspect dilution and air movement is going to be the dominant effect in reducing infection chains.
  - MichaelCollins 4y ago
    I think opening up windows is the answer, but that would mean accepting either a loss of climate control, or greatly increased energy costs. (I'd prefer the former, in all but the absolute hottest summer days or the deadliest cold.)
    - ccn0p 4y ago
      The most interesting phenomenon I noticed was how unquestionably loyal many places were to the mask mandates, yet kept all their windows shut even on totally nice days out. I was in a gym that required everyone to wear a mask (yes, while working out / on a treadmill / etc), but all the large windows were shut, and nobody seemed to care or notice. No staff, no patrons, nobody. So I walked around and opened all the windows. And this wasn't March 2020. This was like end of 2021. I'm not claiming to be some pandemic savant, nor getting into a mask debate, but what shocked me was the "group psychosis" on masking at the expense of proven and incredibly easy mitigation efforts like opening windows!
  - bsder 4y ago
    Is all this true for modern UV LEDs?
    - trashcan 4y ago
      In my house at least I have a UV light in my central HVAC that is supposed to be replaced every five years. Maybe it is different for commercial buildings, but commercial buildings also tend to have professional maintenance.
    - quantum_magpie 4y ago
      You need UV-C for sterilization and there are no LEDs emitting that.
      - MoreSEMI 4y ago
        This is no longer true. Vishay and Nichia[1] for example, produce leds in the UVC range. [1]https://led-ld.nichia.co.jp/en/product/uv_uvc.html https://led-ld.nichia.co.jp/en/product/uv_uvc.html
- stjohnswarts 4y ago
  I don't want UV sterilized air. The war on germs is one we can't win. If everything is sterilized then our immune systems will only weaken and when we do come across a flu virus outdoors it will us 10x harder and potentially kill us.

anthonypasq 4y ago

its actually remarkable that people still believe this after 2+ years

ansible 4y ago

And if we hadn't done that stuff, we would have seen even more than the 1M deaths we did experience. Things could have gotten significantly worse as the hospitals filled up and space was not available for Covid patients and all the other people with heart attacks and other medical conditions. Even as it is, the medical staff have been overworked and extremely stressed. They've been quitting the medical field in very high numbers: https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/04/health-care-workers-series-part-2-workforce/ https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/04/health-care-workers-se... Yes, because of the lockdown, we have paid a high price, but don't just dismiss the higher price we would have paid if no mitigations had been attempted.

WASDx 4y ago
Also known as the preparedness paradox.
nradov 4y ago
Wrong. Most of the non-pharmaceutical interventions were pointless pandemic theater. You can find examples of other countries that took less extreme measures and still had lower death rates.
- jamiek88 4y ago
  Please name them.
- fnord123 4y ago
  Name two countries/areas that you want to use as an example in this argument. Otherwise if anyone else gives a counterexample you can easily move goalposts on them.
  - carlivar 4y ago
    That's pretty easy. Sweden is the poster child of a rational covid19 response. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_... Sweden deaths per million: 1834 U.S. deaths per million: 3043 However you can also choose various European countries that avoided masking children and minimized school disruption. France and UK for starters, but also all the Nordic countries. Sweden being quite different from the other Nordic countries, but all of them being consistent in avoiding school disruption or masking children. Most of Europe does not recommend vaccinating young children either. France deaths per million: 2242 Denmark deaths per million: 1122

staticautomatic 4y ago

Generally those things are helpful but I think China has pretty well demonstrated that there’s no alternative universe where fully locking everything down eliminates Covid.

paulryanrogers 4y ago
Or at least not without perfect worldwide coordination. And assuming there are no animal reservoirs
alex_young 4y ago
China represents 18% of the world's population, yet 0.07% of COVID-19 fatalities. Seems like there is some value in their approach.
- swagasaurus-rex 4y ago
  Like pretending there are no covid deaths?
  - alex_young 4y ago
    Surely they aren't covering up that many deaths right? The US is 4% of the world population, and represents 16% of the fatalities. If China had our rate of fatalities that would indicate that they are hiding 4.3 million deaths somehow.
    - dahdum 4y ago
      Last year the Economist estimated them at about 1.7 million excess mortality. There is extremely strong pressure from the top down to minimize the public death count. The credibility of the party (and Xi personally) relies on their Zero Covid policy being seen as effective. I wouldn't even call it a cover up, there are just no incentives to accurately report and many reasons to downplay aggressively.
    - nephanth 4y ago