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My bigger uneasy feeling here is the advertising/marketing world where ROI basics like attribution are highly questionable and bohemeths like Apple & Google are

My bigger uneasy feeling here is the advertising/marketing world where ROI basics like attribution are highly questionable and bohemeths like Apple & Google are using their $T war chests & monopoly positions to cripple the sales/marketing ecosystems of their competitors. So risks a repeat of the dotcom bubble collapse when cpm/cpc collapsed. So much of saas is directly serving these questionable areas, and in turn, more neutral b2b (data, ...) is in turn powering those and thus also fragile. Variable sales+marketing spend is easy to scale back on during a recession. We've seen preeemptive layoffs due to valuation drops, but not this stuff yet. It's hard to handle. Our team largely focused on helping enterprise/gov/etc customers (think visibility/ai for core fraud, cyber, supply chain operations) and prioritized more self-serve etc for the crypto markets: they came to us with similar questions, but had way more risk, and so luckily we're seeing only a bit of churn right now. But if/when the sales/marketing/etc. collapses hit, that'll be much harder to avoid for many people.

Supermancho 4y ago
> Apple & Google are using their $T war chests & monopoly positions to cripple the sales/marketing ecosystems of their competitors. To be fair, they are doing so by forcing competitors to in-house their advertising efforts. Largely, AdTech in large companies is outsourced to 3rd parties and those existing workflows calcify into positive signal. There hasn't been much incentive to change. Recently, the belts are starting to tighten and network (public market) adtech companies, even with big accounts, are always in danger of disappearing overnight. Many companies rather continue with the few winners in the network adtech space, than engage in the lengthy and risky in-house development. It's slow to see all of the parallel development efforts coming to fruition, when no company wants to make PR announcements that it's no longer sending customer data to a 3rd party, but still collecting it all the same for an internal platform. This migration is happening nonetheless. Amazon built out their platform in under 2 years and the ripple has pushed many others forward toward dogfooding their own adtech stacks.

Supermancho 4y ago

> Apple & Google are using their $T war chests & monopoly positions to cripple the sales/marketing ecosystems of their competitors. To be fair, they are doing so by forcing competitors to in-house their advertising efforts. Largely, AdTech in large companies is outsourced to 3rd parties and those existing workflows calcify into positive signal. There hasn't been much incentive to change. Recently, the belts are starting to tighten and network (public market) adtech companies, even with big accounts, are always in danger of disappearing overnight. Many companies rather continue with the few winners in the network adtech space, than engage in the lengthy and risky in-house development. It's slow to see all of the parallel development efforts coming to fruition, when no company wants to make PR announcements that it's no longer sending customer data to a 3rd party, but still collecting it all the same for an internal platform. This migration is happening nonetheless. Amazon built out their platform in under 2 years and the ripple has pushed many others forward toward dogfooding their own adtech stacks.