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I agree, crypto and fintech will be the first dominos to fall - they’re in free fall already. There’s a lot of copycat B2B startups that extremely dependent on

I agree, crypto and fintech will be the first dominos to fall - they’re in free fall already. There’s a lot of copycat B2B startups that extremely dependent on crypto and fintech for their revenue. They will be the next domino to fall. After that, it would be infrastructure, security, and analytics vendors that will face a revenue crunch and will be unable to raise another round of funding. And then, all the startups for startups vendors like Rippling and Brex. And the final domino would be currently well funded private companies such as Airtable, Notion, Loom, and possibly even Figma. We’ll learn that none of these products had any significant traction outside of VC-land. This would be even worse for the Bay Area than 2000. Remote work is still the norm here (I’m typing this on my lunch break in my nearly empty SF office). An economic downturn coupled with destigmatized remote work is an environment ripe for outsourcing.

jcmontx 4y ago
> the final domino would be currently well funded private companies such as Airtable, Notion, Loom, and possibly even Figma How can you make such claims? These are great products
- greedo 4y ago
  The world is littered with dead companies that had great products.
- disgruntledphd2 4y ago
  That matters in a growth market, only revenue and positive margins matter now.
- vcfundedmylife 4y ago
  I don’t deny that they are great products with incredibly talented engineering teams. All of that doesn’t matter when 90% of your revenue comes from series C startups that will go bust in a year, or switch to cheaper and marginally worse alternatives.
drchopchop 4y ago
I'd disagree re: Figma and Notion. These are very sticky, best-in-class tools which have a lot of use outside of "VC-land". Figma is becoming the de-facto way to share designs across the internet. Notion has a good shot at becoming the internet's default business wiki, killing Confluence.
- btown 4y ago
  Figma's incredibly hard to replace because its tools are highly customized for specific design workflows. Notion, I'm not nearly as sure about. With Google Workplace having pageless Google Docs now, and other shops having content centralized on Office 365, a lot of cost-cutting companies will ask "we just use Notion for a wiki anyways, can we migrate over to the system we're already paying for?" And sure, Notion is making the right move here, to move rapidly on becoming a hub for project planning and other structured content, which is harder to move into a plain collaborative document. But is enough of Notion's userbase using those table features to such a level that it would cause pain? I'm truly not sure.
  - blueboo 4y ago
    This is a 2000s mindset as well. Designers are a few YouTube tutorials away from jumping from Figma to Dingus or whatever will come next. Notion’s moat erodes with every iteration of Google Docs and Office — it’ll be the WordPerfect of 2025. Maybe, anyway
    - ProfessorLayton 4y ago
      I won't disagree here. Before Figma it was Sketch, and before Sketch it was Photoshop etc.
  - raverbashing 4y ago
    Notion is such a "local maximum" it's hard to see not being outcompeted by anything else Firma has a deeper moat around it
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
moneywoes 4y ago
What can we do to insulate ourselves from this? As a software engineer at a startup
- disgruntledphd2 4y ago
  Hit profitability on a unit cost basis yesterday. Try to hit overall profitability before the VC cash burns out.
- djbusby 4y ago
  Ask management about the numbers, evaluate their answer. If you don't get an answer: run.
- vcfundedmylife 4y ago
  If you work in crypto or fintech, run. Otherwise, I don’t think there’s much you can do to insulate yourself. It’s never obvious how resilient your employer is relative to the rest of the industry. Just reset your expectations on what working in tech will be like for the next few years. And prioritize learning and building your network - whether at work or outside - over trying to climb the career ladder. It will pay off in the long run and you’ll be happier. Also, articles like this show that we’re nowhere near capitulation. When we actually get there, stay passionate about tech. There will be another boom.
- dinvlad 4y ago
  Or start your own bootstrapped SaaS - the only investment is time and effort. These are some of the most enduring businesses, imho.
- danjac 4y ago
  Keep your resume up to date and start applying for new positions. Even if none of them are what you are looking for, it's good to sharpen your interview practice.
spoonjim 4y ago
I will disagree on Figma. It's taken a huge chunk of workflows at some extremely old school businesses. Amidst a sea of shitcorps it is the real deal.
danjac 4y ago
The Bay Area has never really reconciled being a protective property market (the old money NIMBYs) and being a high-growth business hub. One of the two had to give, and another tech market crash plus remote work becoming the norm (despite wailing and gnashing of teeth from some CEOs and VCs) will probably see SF reverting to the former.
- unity1001 4y ago
  When there arent NIMBYs, high rises are quickly built, every place is turned into a overcrowded, concrete jungle and the property prices still remain high. Hong Kong. Tokyo. Many examples.
  - amadeuspagel 4y ago
    https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent
unity1001 4y ago
> An economic downturn coupled with destigmatized remote work is an environment ripe for outsourcing. It isnt. That cheap outsourced software engineer wont be staying for ages with any company. They get promoted or found their own businesses. They dont keep slavering away for dimes for an US company that wants to have them as sweatshop labor. Designing, engineering and maintaining highly scalable systems is not something that you could outsource to have it done for $15/hour.

jcmontx 4y ago

> the final domino would be currently well funded private companies such as Airtable, Notion, Loom, and possibly even Figma How can you make such claims? These are great products

greedo 4y ago
The world is littered with dead companies that had great products.
disgruntledphd2 4y ago
That matters in a growth market, only revenue and positive margins matter now.
vcfundedmylife 4y ago
I don’t deny that they are great products with incredibly talented engineering teams. All of that doesn’t matter when 90% of your revenue comes from series C startups that will go bust in a year, or switch to cheaper and marginally worse alternatives.

drchopchop 4y ago

I'd disagree re: Figma and Notion. These are very sticky, best-in-class tools which have a lot of use outside of "VC-land". Figma is becoming the de-facto way to share designs across the internet. Notion has a good shot at becoming the internet's default business wiki, killing Confluence.

btown 4y ago
Figma's incredibly hard to replace because its tools are highly customized for specific design workflows. Notion, I'm not nearly as sure about. With Google Workplace having pageless Google Docs now, and other shops having content centralized on Office 365, a lot of cost-cutting companies will ask "we just use Notion for a wiki anyways, can we migrate over to the system we're already paying for?" And sure, Notion is making the right move here, to move rapidly on becoming a hub for project planning and other structured content, which is harder to move into a plain collaborative document. But is enough of Notion's userbase using those table features to such a level that it would cause pain? I'm truly not sure.
- blueboo 4y ago
  This is a 2000s mindset as well. Designers are a few YouTube tutorials away from jumping from Figma to Dingus or whatever will come next. Notion’s moat erodes with every iteration of Google Docs and Office — it’ll be the WordPerfect of 2025. Maybe, anyway
  - ProfessorLayton 4y ago
    I won't disagree here. Before Figma it was Sketch, and before Sketch it was Photoshop etc.
- raverbashing 4y ago
  Notion is such a "local maximum" it's hard to see not being outcompeted by anything else Firma has a deeper moat around it
skippyboxedhero 4y ago

moneywoes 4y ago

What can we do to insulate ourselves from this? As a software engineer at a startup

disgruntledphd2 4y ago
Hit profitability on a unit cost basis yesterday. Try to hit overall profitability before the VC cash burns out.
djbusby 4y ago
Ask management about the numbers, evaluate their answer. If you don't get an answer: run.
vcfundedmylife 4y ago
If you work in crypto or fintech, run. Otherwise, I don’t think there’s much you can do to insulate yourself. It’s never obvious how resilient your employer is relative to the rest of the industry. Just reset your expectations on what working in tech will be like for the next few years. And prioritize learning and building your network - whether at work or outside - over trying to climb the career ladder. It will pay off in the long run and you’ll be happier. Also, articles like this show that we’re nowhere near capitulation. When we actually get there, stay passionate about tech. There will be another boom.
dinvlad 4y ago
Or start your own bootstrapped SaaS - the only investment is time and effort. These are some of the most enduring businesses, imho.
danjac 4y ago
Keep your resume up to date and start applying for new positions. Even if none of them are what you are looking for, it's good to sharpen your interview practice.

spoonjim 4y ago

I will disagree on Figma. It's taken a huge chunk of workflows at some extremely old school businesses. Amidst a sea of shitcorps it is the real deal.

danjac 4y ago

The Bay Area has never really reconciled being a protective property market (the old money NIMBYs) and being a high-growth business hub. One of the two had to give, and another tech market crash plus remote work becoming the norm (despite wailing and gnashing of teeth from some CEOs and VCs) will probably see SF reverting to the former.

unity1001 4y ago
When there arent NIMBYs, high rises are quickly built, every place is turned into a overcrowded, concrete jungle and the property prices still remain high. Hong Kong. Tokyo. Many examples.
- amadeuspagel 4y ago
  https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent

unity1001 4y ago

> An economic downturn coupled with destigmatized remote work is an environment ripe for outsourcing. It isnt. That cheap outsourced software engineer wont be staying for ages with any company. They get promoted or found their own businesses. They dont keep slavering away for dimes for an US company that wants to have them as sweatshop labor. Designing, engineering and maintaining highly scalable systems is not something that you could outsource to have it done for $15/hour.