7 ms·

Scary this is just the beginning... a recession has not even started

by beernet 4y ago

danielmarkbruce 4y ago
Asset prices tend to go down before recessions start, and up before they end.
yomkippur 4y ago
yeah if this is considered level 1, its gonna get really bad for Stripe staff's RSU
maxpert 4y ago
I think you are 6 months into recession the readouts will just make it official.
- throwaway12245 4y ago
  Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) July 28 08:30 AM https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
cco 4y ago
Could you clarify? By any measure we're already in a recession today. I'm certainly no economist so maybe there is some other detail we're missing?
- danielmarkbruce 4y ago
  Which measure are you using?
  - cco 4y ago
    Two consecutive quarters of negative growth plus...well the S&P is down nearly 25% over the last six months. If this isn't a recession I don't know what is.
    - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
      We haven't reported 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth.
- HFguy 4y ago
  We aren't in a recession. The broad job market is still way too tight. But it is coming. It is being engineered by the Fed to reduce inflation. Probably sometime next year.
  - nonethewiser 4y ago
    Recession is measured by GDP. Unless we're not using the technical definition. In which case a recession doesn't have a firm meaning.
    - astrange 4y ago
      Recessions in the US are declared by an NBER panel (retrospectively) based on vibes. https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/no-us-recession-until-obscure-panel-of-eggheads-says-it-is-so https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/no-us-rec... We currently aren't seeing one; that would be stagflation. We're seeing inflation plus economic activity instead.
- nowherebeen 4y ago
  Recessions are a lagging indicator. You won’t know until a year after it starts. What we are seeing right now is nothing compared to 2008. This is a slowdown, not yet, a recession.
  - peanuty1 4y ago
    > You won’t know until a year after it starts. 7 months in the US to be precise (if a recession started Jan 1, 2022, we find out on Jul 28, 2022).
- happyopossum 4y ago
  > By any measure we're already in a recession today. Except we are not by the accepted definition of a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative growth). You can make the word mean something else, but then it’s kinda useless.
  - capableweb 4y ago
    The "accepted definition of a recession"? Where are you getting this from? I understand that some government/finance organizations in specific countries might have some sort of "definition" of the term recession, but in general parlance, "recession" is just when the economy is not doing well. Some organizations do have indicators like "2 consecutive quarters of negative growth", but doesn't mean it's a universal "accepted definition".
    - qeternity 4y ago
      Well it is pretty much the official definition. But no, recession does not mean the economy is not doing well, because economic health is not binary. What recession means is economic contraction, and usually people look for confirmation after one quarter of negative growth, hence the two quarter “rule”.
  - cco 4y ago
    That is the common definition I used, we've had two consecutive quarters of widespread negative growth. Its fair that its just the Fed estimate for Q2 still, but Q1 and Q2 are negative this year.
  - bigcloud1299 4y ago
    This definition has changed to including higher unemployment rate like 5%. So from it we could never enter recession. Tho was introduced in NBER post 2009.
- rmk 4y ago
  There is a separate board of economists at the NBER that meets up and takes a vote after taking into account various economic indicators. If they vote yes, then formally the economy is in a recession. This board is a bit conservative and their recession declarations are usually after the fact (once they have looked at the indicators). So technically we are not in a recession yet.

Scary this is just the beginning... a recession has not even started

danielmarkbruce 4y ago

Asset prices tend to go down before recessions start, and up before they end.

yomkippur 4y ago

yeah if this is considered level 1, its gonna get really bad for Stripe staff's RSU

maxpert 4y ago

I think you are 6 months into recession the readouts will just make it official.

throwaway12245 4y ago
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) July 28 08:30 AM https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

cco 4y ago

Could you clarify? By any measure we're already in a recession today. I'm certainly no economist so maybe there is some other detail we're missing?

danielmarkbruce 4y ago
Which measure are you using?
- cco 4y ago
  Two consecutive quarters of negative growth plus...well the S&P is down nearly 25% over the last six months. If this isn't a recession I don't know what is.
  - danielmarkbruce 4y ago
    We haven't reported 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth.
HFguy 4y ago
We aren't in a recession. The broad job market is still way too tight. But it is coming. It is being engineered by the Fed to reduce inflation. Probably sometime next year.
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  Recession is measured by GDP. Unless we're not using the technical definition. In which case a recession doesn't have a firm meaning.
  - astrange 4y ago
    Recessions in the US are declared by an NBER panel (retrospectively) based on vibes. https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/no-us-recession-until-obscure-panel-of-eggheads-says-it-is-so https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/no-us-rec... We currently aren't seeing one; that would be stagflation. We're seeing inflation plus economic activity instead.
nowherebeen 4y ago
Recessions are a lagging indicator. You won’t know until a year after it starts. What we are seeing right now is nothing compared to 2008. This is a slowdown, not yet, a recession.
- peanuty1 4y ago
  > You won’t know until a year after it starts. 7 months in the US to be precise (if a recession started Jan 1, 2022, we find out on Jul 28, 2022).
happyopossum 4y ago
> By any measure we're already in a recession today. Except we are not by the accepted definition of a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative growth). You can make the word mean something else, but then it’s kinda useless.
- capableweb 4y ago
  The "accepted definition of a recession"? Where are you getting this from? I understand that some government/finance organizations in specific countries might have some sort of "definition" of the term recession, but in general parlance, "recession" is just when the economy is not doing well. Some organizations do have indicators like "2 consecutive quarters of negative growth", but doesn't mean it's a universal "accepted definition".
  - qeternity 4y ago
    Well it is pretty much the official definition. But no, recession does not mean the economy is not doing well, because economic health is not binary. What recession means is economic contraction, and usually people look for confirmation after one quarter of negative growth, hence the two quarter “rule”.
- cco 4y ago
  That is the common definition I used, we've had two consecutive quarters of widespread negative growth. Its fair that its just the Fed estimate for Q2 still, but Q1 and Q2 are negative this year.
- bigcloud1299 4y ago
  This definition has changed to including higher unemployment rate like 5%. So from it we could never enter recession. Tho was introduced in NBER post 2009.
rmk 4y ago
There is a separate board of economists at the NBER that meets up and takes a vote after taking into account various economic indicators. If they vote yes, then formally the economy is in a recession. This board is a bit conservative and their recession declarations are usually after the fact (once they have looked at the indicators). So technically we are not in a recession yet.