5 ms·

100x is shocking, so I explored a bit. Over 2010-2020 Amherst PD reported ~5 violent crimes per year[1], in a town of ~10000, or about 50 per 100000. NYPD rep

100x is shocking, so I explored a bit. Over 2010-2020 Amherst PD reported ~5 violent crimes per year[1], in a town of ~10000, or about 50 per 100000. NYPD reported ~49k per year over the same period[ibid], on about 8.3m residents, or about about 590 per 100000. So about 11x difference in per-capita reported-to-local-PD crime. I'll admit I'm surprised it's still an order of magnitude, I share GP's sensibility that the cities are generally much safer than perceived [1] https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crim...

chimeracoder 4y ago
"Violent crime" is not a consistently defined or tracked category across cities, so it isn't comparable. The NYPD has a notoriously... loose definition of "violent crime", to the point where it counts things that no reasonable person would be thinking of when they hear that term. For this reason, researchers typically use homocides to make comparisons, because that's consistently defined and tracked across jurisdictions, and because it's harder to manipulate those statistics when recording. NYC - particularly Manhattan - has a much lower homocide rate than other places.
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- kristjansson 4y ago
  Very fair point, my comment should be read as a worst-case estimate of the comparison. In homicide terms, GP's town averages ~2 per 100k (although they haven't had one for the last few years) while NYC averages ~4 per 100k.
bufferoverflow 4y ago
I am not surprised. NYC gave up on violent crime. It's Democrat's policy. Same as in Chicago, SF, Los Angeles, and many other Democrat-run cities. One of the reasons I left NYC. I'm now in one of the safest neighborhoods, we have virtually no violent crime, except from the occasional visiting criminals.
- exogeny 4y ago
  Good. I’m glad you got the fuck out of our city with your alarmist, non-factual nonsense.
  - bufferoverflow 4y ago
    It's not alarmist. I look at the crime stats instead of listening to propaganda. And I am glad my taxes don't support Democrats' pro-crime policies.
    - tomnipotent 4y ago
      But you're sharing propaganda instead of crime stats. So all you've done is repeat a Republican party "talking point", which in the context of crime over time is nonsense.
      - bufferoverflow 4y ago
        Plenty of evidence of DAs in Democrat-run cities not prosecuting violent criminals. In Portland mobs fully control the streets, drag people out of cars and beat them, they threaten people, while police is just standing and watching. This is on video, not propaganda.
        randomhodler84 4y ago
        I’m glad you enjoy Florida or Texas. Don’t get anyone pregnant accidentally cos you know why…
        bufferoverflow 4y ago
        I have two kids. They are great. Parts of Florida great. Never been to Texas.
        tomnipotent 4y ago
        > In Portland mobs fully control the streets So you follow-up propaganda with hyperbole, and pretend that extreme outliers are somehow a normal representation. There's also plenty of evidence of Republican-run cities locking up innocent people, or conservatives attempting a violent coup during a transition of power. It's a silly game.
fritztastic 4y ago
NYC gets dozens of millions of visitors annually, in addition to people commuting in daily and people transiting through the city. So, while the number of crimes is high, the number of people actually in the city at any given time is multiple times the number of people who reside there. Probably the total number of people in the city anually is 10x the people who live there. I'd also factor in the numbers are higher also because policing is very robust. I can't think of any other city where I saw a cop nearly as often as NYC, they're everywhere. Anecdotally, I never felt unsafe there. Although where I grew up crime was rampant, common, and expected- so comparatively NYC seemed really safe, and it wasn't hard to avoid high risk places/situations. I do think people hype up the crime numbers, and forget to consider the variables present in a megalopolis which aren't present in smaller cities.
- Dylan16807 4y ago
  > Probably the total number of people in the city anually is 10x the people who live there. That number doesn't really matter, does it? I'd think the average number of people there each day is much closer to the relevant number.
  - filoleg 4y ago
    > I'd think the average number of people there each day is much closer to the relevant number. Yes, and that "average number of people there each day" would include all the non-residents/tourists in the city. Which is a non-trivial number at all for NYC.
    - Dylan16807 4y ago
      Yes, of course it would count them. But that number will be much much smaller. If the average visitor is there for a week, then a million yearly visitors only increase the daily population by 20k. You'd expect a crime increase equivalent to 20k residents or less. So if there really is an 11x increase in crime, along with a 10x increase in yearly population, that's actually a huge increase in crime on a per-person per-day basis.
kristjansson 4y ago
Too late to edit, but I should emphasize a comment down thread that this is a crude, worst-case estimate of the difference between OP's town and NYC. Don't take this as 'NYC is 10x more violent', take this as 'The difference is at least 10x _smaller_ than stated'

chimeracoder 4y ago

"Violent crime" is not a consistently defined or tracked category across cities, so it isn't comparable. The NYPD has a notoriously... loose definition of "violent crime", to the point where it counts things that no reasonable person would be thinking of when they hear that term. For this reason, researchers typically use homocides to make comparisons, because that's consistently defined and tracked across jurisdictions, and because it's harder to manipulate those statistics when recording. NYC - particularly Manhattan - has a much lower homocide rate than other places.

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kristjansson 4y ago
Very fair point, my comment should be read as a worst-case estimate of the comparison. In homicide terms, GP's town averages ~2 per 100k (although they haven't had one for the last few years) while NYC averages ~4 per 100k.

bufferoverflow 4y ago

I am not surprised. NYC gave up on violent crime. It's Democrat's policy. Same as in Chicago, SF, Los Angeles, and many other Democrat-run cities. One of the reasons I left NYC. I'm now in one of the safest neighborhoods, we have virtually no violent crime, except from the occasional visiting criminals.

exogeny 4y ago
Good. I’m glad you got the fuck out of our city with your alarmist, non-factual nonsense.
- bufferoverflow 4y ago
  It's not alarmist. I look at the crime stats instead of listening to propaganda. And I am glad my taxes don't support Democrats' pro-crime policies.
  - tomnipotent 4y ago
    But you're sharing propaganda instead of crime stats. So all you've done is repeat a Republican party "talking point", which in the context of crime over time is nonsense.
    - bufferoverflow 4y ago
      Plenty of evidence of DAs in Democrat-run cities not prosecuting violent criminals. In Portland mobs fully control the streets, drag people out of cars and beat them, they threaten people, while police is just standing and watching. This is on video, not propaganda.
      - randomhodler84 4y ago
        I’m glad you enjoy Florida or Texas. Don’t get anyone pregnant accidentally cos you know why…
        bufferoverflow 4y ago
        I have two kids. They are great. Parts of Florida great. Never been to Texas.
      - tomnipotent 4y ago
        > In Portland mobs fully control the streets So you follow-up propaganda with hyperbole, and pretend that extreme outliers are somehow a normal representation. There's also plenty of evidence of Republican-run cities locking up innocent people, or conservatives attempting a violent coup during a transition of power. It's a silly game.

fritztastic 4y ago

NYC gets dozens of millions of visitors annually, in addition to people commuting in daily and people transiting through the city. So, while the number of crimes is high, the number of people actually in the city at any given time is multiple times the number of people who reside there. Probably the total number of people in the city anually is 10x the people who live there. I'd also factor in the numbers are higher also because policing is very robust. I can't think of any other city where I saw a cop nearly as often as NYC, they're everywhere. Anecdotally, I never felt unsafe there. Although where I grew up crime was rampant, common, and expected- so comparatively NYC seemed really safe, and it wasn't hard to avoid high risk places/situations. I do think people hype up the crime numbers, and forget to consider the variables present in a megalopolis which aren't present in smaller cities.

Dylan16807 4y ago
> Probably the total number of people in the city anually is 10x the people who live there. That number doesn't really matter, does it? I'd think the average number of people there each day is much closer to the relevant number.
- filoleg 4y ago
  > I'd think the average number of people there each day is much closer to the relevant number. Yes, and that "average number of people there each day" would include all the non-residents/tourists in the city. Which is a non-trivial number at all for NYC.
  - Dylan16807 4y ago
    Yes, of course it would count them. But that number will be much much smaller. If the average visitor is there for a week, then a million yearly visitors only increase the daily population by 20k. You'd expect a crime increase equivalent to 20k residents or less. So if there really is an 11x increase in crime, along with a 10x increase in yearly population, that's actually a huge increase in crime on a per-person per-day basis.

kristjansson 4y ago

Too late to edit, but I should emphasize a comment down thread that this is a crude, worst-case estimate of the difference between OP's town and NYC. Don't take this as 'NYC is 10x more violent', take this as 'The difference is at least 10x _smaller_ than stated'