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Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released
by TheAlchemist 4y ago
Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD.
Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ??
It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.
- akmittal 4y agoIrrespective of what he said, it won't be 0, Tesla would still be one of the best electric cars available.
- 01100011 4y agoFor how long though? It seems like traditional automakers have mostly figured out EVs now. I love my Chevy EV, and it's 4 years old now. Similarly, the Kia EV I recently drove was excellent(although the Bolt one pedal driving is better IMHO).
- jeffbee 4y agoIf I have to pick a side in the battle of who can produce the most cheap batteries, an insane Twitter addict or state-controlled industries of South Korea, I'm going with the Koreans.
- tooltalk 4y agoHyundai Motor Group is state-controlled? You mean like GM?
- mathverse 4y agoHe mixed that up with Chinese corporations. Korean chaebols are more like "state endorsed monopolies". Or state "you can get away with almost anything corporations because you make a large chunk of our GDP and employ a lot of people". That said...I would bet on koreans too.
- jeffbee 4y agoI'm not mixed up but I guess I should have said state-controlling instead of state-controlled. The chaebols are running the place, that's why they won the DRAM wars. Batteries, same thing. And I was referring to LG Chem, not Hyundai.
- atombender 4y agoThe situation outside the US is even worse for Tesla. There's a whole swathe of great EVs these days from VW (ID.3, ID.4), Renault (Megane, E-2008), Opel (Corsa-e), Volvo (C40, XC40), Ford (Mustang Mach-E), Jaguar (I-PACE), Polestar, BMW (i4, iX), Audi (e-Tron), Mercedes (EQS), Skoda (Enyaq), etc. The range of models is also much wider in terms of affordability. In Europe, we've reached the point where an EV is just another car, and even the cheaper ones have tons of clever bells and whistles like 360 cameras.
- practice9 4y agoAnd still Teslas sell better both in EU & China than all those EVs you mentioned
- Swenrekcah 4y agoFor now, but they’ll get overtaken next year, perhaps even this year if the trends continue. For the first 5 months of 2022 there were 500,000 BEVs sold in Europe with Tesla 3 and Y accounting for a little over 60,000. [1] There is a tidal wave of competing offerings and Tesla will soon be on the sidelines. [1]: https://insideevs.com/news/594688/europe-plugin-car-sales-may-2022/ https://insideevs.com/news/594688/europe-plugin-car-sales-ma...
- atombender 4y agoThey sell better than any single car brand, sure, but much less as a fraction of the market. Their market share in Europe has been around 25% (compared to around 70% in the US). And it's falling. In March 2022, Tesla's market share was just 10.5%.
- practice9 4y agoThere is a large demand for EVs for multiple reasons (incl. the current energy crisis) and Tesla is not scaling fast enough. It's great that others also started producing EVs (consumer choice, price etc.). But in absolute numbers it will not be easy to catch up, as batteries are a limiting factor. Energy efficiency in modern EV brands also isn't very good, which requires putting more battery (and weight) into the car. (perhaps excluding Hyundai Ioniq-s) Combined with fast scaling of the car production + high price of lithium batteries, this will limit how many cars can be produced or increase the car price for the consumer. This may change if manufacturers will start improving efficiency or building battery factories for themselves. Which I think only VW is currently planning to do
- dmitriid 4y agoI'm now seeing a lot of VW ID.4s and Skoda Enyaqs (basically the same car, different styling) in Sweden.
- TheAlchemist 4y agoThat's probably true ! But in itself, just making on of the best electric cars today would justify a valuation of 1/10 of what Tesla currently have. I still admire Musk and Tesla for having started the electric revolution. But by 2025 (and maybe already are), they will just be one of many electric car manufacturers - somewhere in the middle of the pack.
- svnt 4y agoHe did not start it. He did a hostile takeover and revised the history of Tesla so he could be a cofounder.
- fshbbdssbbgdd 4y agoI’m no expert on Tesla’s history, but I’m sure it was private back then, and hostile takeovers of private companies are not really a thing.
- filoleg 4y agoCorrect, yeah. Tesla was founded in mid 2003, Elon became the largest shareholder in early 2004, became the CEO in 2008, and then the company IPOd in mid 2010.[0] The comment you were replying to definitely seemed quite a bit incoherent with their personal take on what hostile takeovers actually mean. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.
- jackmott42 4y agoFSD may be a huge fraud but the whole company is not. The cars are real!
- TheAlchemist 4y agoSure ! But are the financials of the company also real ? The prospects of future products ? Robotaxis, FSD, Cybertruck, Semi ?
- carbadtraingood 4y agoThe cars are real but they are... Mediocre. The first year of ownership is an amazing honeymoon period, assuming you got one with decent build quality. But the parts are cheap, and they break quickly. I've had one for 5+ years and it's gradually become something I prefer driving less and less.
- YZF 4y ago3.5 years here with a model 3. Zero problems. Still love it. What other EV would you pick and what would you use instead of the supercharger network? I don't want to own any more gasoline cars...
- carbadtraingood 4y agoCurrently have a reservation in for a Ford Lightning (but we use a truck for our forest). We have a plug in hybrid that has a 20 mile range on battery that basically never runs on gas as well. I've heard good things about the Kia Niro, VW ID.4, and Hyundai Kona as well.
- Shebanator 4y agoYour personal experience is not something that can be so easily generalized. I've had my Model 3 for 4+ years, and the only real problems I've had are non-mechanical (nails embedded in tires, getting keyed in SF, etc.). See - we cancel out....
- lazyjones 4y ago
- NovemberWhiskey 4y ago>Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. In fairness, this is just another in the long line of ridiculous things that he is prone to saying.
- dreamcompiler 4y agoIf Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.
- sn41 4y agoIMHO, the best cars in the world are still Toyotas - not the bleeding edge, mind you, just more reliability, overall "gets out of the way and does the job" in the most effective manner possible.
- kylehotchkiss 4y agoWith the supply chains this wild, and increased costs everywhere else, I’m also happy to be a Toyota owner. A healthy aftermarket for parts too just in case. And we get CarPlay!
- strikelaserclaw 4y agobest cars in the world is a stretch
- pwagland 4y agoIt is a stretch, but they are clearly also not the worst. The company clearly has value without FSD. Not the value that the market currently gives it, but value nonetheless.
- carbadtraingood 4y agoAs an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass. They'll get eclipsed by other electric car manufacturers real quick. Edit: more specifically, the parts break and they are difficult to replace. The battery degrades. They stopped providing maps to the vehicle unless I'm willing to spend several hundred dollars to replace the media console, they've told me I'm covered by a recall/warranty but have been unable to schedule the appointment.
- TigeriusKirk 4y agoDevil's Advocate- Maybe Karpathy thinks all the fun parts of FSD are done and it's just drudge work from this point.
- sgerenser 4y agoHe's done the first 90%, the last 90% is now all just drudgery.
- lazyjones 4y ago> Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? Life is not only about work. I stepped down from the company I funded after 14 years, it never stopped growing after that. Some people just get bored after doing one thing for a long time and want to explore other areas, especially if they always had broad interests. > It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered. I seriously doubt that my Model S will somehow stop working so well and turn out to be just a fake car after 5 years.
- atonse 4y agoThis is what I say when people call Musk a showman and a fraud. I say that I must be imagining that I’ve actually been driving an EV for the past four years. I must’ve dreamt having to drive only 2 hours out of a 12 hour road trip. Bugs? Yea. Some really dangerous ones we all have read about. Manufacturing defects? Yup! Missed Deadlines? Hell yeah. But a fraud? Nope.
- TheAlchemist 4y agoYou have a point. But did Theranos customers were thinking they were a fraud ? Nope - they were getting their blood test results done, although not in a way Theranos advertised. Of course the Tesla cars are not a fraud - they are actually pretty good - and for a long time they were the only EV out there. But it's no longer a case, and they are just becoming one of the 50 EV car makers out there. And Elon seems to know it - that's why he's insisting that the entire company insane valuation is tied to FSD, or whatever other futuristic product he can imagine. What I mean is that it's a fraud because it's an (maybe a bit above) average EV car making company, but it's CEO and the company itself insists it has extremely advance technology and products - which for now, doesn't exist. As a result, it's $ valuation is higher than most other car makers combined.
- lazyjones 4y ago> and they are just becoming one of the 50 EV car makers out there. The Model Y was recently the best-selling car regardless of technology (i.e. overall best-selling passenger car) in several countries. Most notably, last month in China.
- cjbgkagh 4y agoWhat about the people who died beta testing it.
- sidcool 4y agoTesla has been over promising for sure. But it’s not a fraud. Had it been it would have met the same fate as Nikola. I am for heavy fines on Tesla for their lofty claims, but I don’t know why people want to see Tesla destroyed. They do have a profitable electric car business with no fraud.
- kaba0 4y ago> It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered. It was always the case.
- SergeAx 4y agoKarpathy would step down if his vesting schedule is over and he failed to negotiate another stock option. TSLA is public, it's value was inflated at least an order of magnitude last year, so any rational person would cache hugely on that.