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Feasibility of this fusion work aside, I think it must be quite amazing to really believe in all these things to come true, it's like living in the future. I w

Feasibility of this fusion work aside, I think it must be quite amazing to really believe in all these things to come true, it's like living in the future. I wonder whether Sam really believes in all these ventures, or if he's just building hype? I mean according to his timeline the whole world will run on Helion fusion energy in 15 years, A.I. will write all of our software code, we'll all pay in cryptocurrency using our biometric data and quantum computers will be a proven, practical technology (among other things). Would probably be amazing if these things came to pass (at least for some of us), but if I would go around and tell people stuff like that everyone would think I'm crazy. Then again I don't live in SV, so maybe that's on me.

perlgeek 4y ago
(Disclaimer: speculation ahead, never having met Sam). > I wonder whether Sam really believes in all these ventures, or if he's just building hype? Part of being a VC is having many moonshots in your portfolio; if only some of them work out, that's still a huge win in total, even if the others go bust. So he likely "believes" all these things in the same way that he believes in his portfolio: not that literally all of them turn out to be true, but some of them will, if you just believe in enough of them.
- newaccount2021 4y ago
lazzlazzlazz 4y ago
> pay in cryptocurrency using our biometric data This is incorrect — Worldcoin orbs[1] use iris scans to create privacy-preserving proofs (these are called zero-knowledge proofs[2]) of uniqueness client side, which are just metadata for creating social graphs. The data is never used beyond the construction of the proof.[3] If you're going to be critical you should at least understand why the idea is exciting to some. :) [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA2ttYtUbF8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA2ttYtUbF8 [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proof https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proof [3]: https://worldcoin.org/privacy https://worldcoin.org/privacy
ProAm 4y ago
I think Sam Altman has always been mostly a hype man. Reading his posts over the years its better for him if his portfolio gets PR momentum.
- jgalt212 4y ago
  SV has been long conditioned to value hype equally to product. They've seen too many superior products lose out to poor marketing.
JoshCole 4y ago
Belief is a probability. Utility is an outcome propagated backward subject to your value function. Belief times utility minus opportunity cost can lead to low probability events having high utility such that their expected value even after accounting for a high opportunity cost is still worth pursuing. If you take this approach with only one bet than you don't minimize your risk. Probabilistic reasoning doesn't have any guarantee for a particular sample. You can get unlucky. In order to safely pursue low probability high utility gains you have to make multiple uncorrelated bets such that your winners pay for your losers. So the perception of this approach being crazy is exactly backwards. Rather than being crazy in his bold vision of the future, he is actually a cautious person who is trying to minimize the riskiness of his beliefs.
- ThePhysicist 4y ago
  I didn't say he was crazy, just that people would call me crazy here (in Germany) if I evangelized stuff like he does.
  - JoshCole 4y ago
    Apologies; I didn't mean to imply you thought he was crazy. I was trying to refer to the easy to reach perception of someone who makes a lot of low probability bets as being crazy, but was sloppy in my word choice.
  - marvin 4y ago
    I'd hazard a guess that's part of the reason really successful entrepeneurship happens much less in Europe than it does in the USA.
pizzathyme 4y ago
A big part of moonshots like this is not being fatalistic. It is possible but not guaranteed. And if leadership does not have absolute conviction, belief in the best outcome future being possible, it will definitely not happen.
- gnramires 4y ago
  It's not just about P(success), it's about P(success)*Utility !
mherdeg 4y ago
Speaking of "in 15 years" -- it's not too early to start doing y2038 blogging. Write yourself a thoughtful post once per month about y2038 issues and you'll have a lucrative set of consulting jobs starting in 15 years and ending about one year later.

perlgeek 4y ago

(Disclaimer: speculation ahead, never having met Sam). > I wonder whether Sam really believes in all these ventures, or if he's just building hype? Part of being a VC is having many moonshots in your portfolio; if only some of them work out, that's still a huge win in total, even if the others go bust. So he likely "believes" all these things in the same way that he believes in his portfolio: not that literally all of them turn out to be true, but some of them will, if you just believe in enough of them.

newaccount2021 4y ago

lazzlazzlazz 4y ago

> pay in cryptocurrency using our biometric data This is incorrect — Worldcoin orbs[1] use iris scans to create privacy-preserving proofs (these are called zero-knowledge proofs[2]) of uniqueness client side, which are just metadata for creating social graphs. The data is never used beyond the construction of the proof.[3] If you're going to be critical you should at least understand why the idea is exciting to some. :) [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA2ttYtUbF8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA2ttYtUbF8 [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proof https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proof [3]: https://worldcoin.org/privacy https://worldcoin.org/privacy

ProAm 4y ago

I think Sam Altman has always been mostly a hype man. Reading his posts over the years its better for him if his portfolio gets PR momentum.

jgalt212 4y ago
SV has been long conditioned to value hype equally to product. They've seen too many superior products lose out to poor marketing.

JoshCole 4y ago

Belief is a probability. Utility is an outcome propagated backward subject to your value function. Belief times utility minus opportunity cost can lead to low probability events having high utility such that their expected value even after accounting for a high opportunity cost is still worth pursuing. If you take this approach with only one bet than you don't minimize your risk. Probabilistic reasoning doesn't have any guarantee for a particular sample. You can get unlucky. In order to safely pursue low probability high utility gains you have to make multiple uncorrelated bets such that your winners pay for your losers. So the perception of this approach being crazy is exactly backwards. Rather than being crazy in his bold vision of the future, he is actually a cautious person who is trying to minimize the riskiness of his beliefs.

ThePhysicist 4y ago
I didn't say he was crazy, just that people would call me crazy here (in Germany) if I evangelized stuff like he does.
- JoshCole 4y ago
  Apologies; I didn't mean to imply you thought he was crazy. I was trying to refer to the easy to reach perception of someone who makes a lot of low probability bets as being crazy, but was sloppy in my word choice.
- marvin 4y ago
  I'd hazard a guess that's part of the reason really successful entrepeneurship happens much less in Europe than it does in the USA.

pizzathyme 4y ago

A big part of moonshots like this is not being fatalistic. It is possible but not guaranteed. And if leadership does not have absolute conviction, belief in the best outcome future being possible, it will definitely not happen.

gnramires 4y ago
It's not just about P(success), it's about P(success)*Utility !

mherdeg 4y ago

Speaking of "in 15 years" -- it's not too early to start doing y2038 blogging. Write yourself a thoughtful post once per month about y2038 issues and you'll have a lucrative set of consulting jobs starting in 15 years and ending about one year later.