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Ask HN: What is the future of the economy and government in Sri Lanka?

• gsatic 4y ago
  As soon as a large enough tranche of cash flows in, the system will reboot. Its not Somalia where there are no institutions and things have to be built from scratch. There is enough cash in the world to make that happen. The chimp troupe will produce a great sound and light show for a few more months to decide the terms of the deal.
• pstuart 4y ago
  I think China is buying it up.
• throaghan 4y ago
  As a former resident of SL, it’s easy to point fingers at the ousted regime. Corrupt and made disastrous decisions for the economy, but there are far deeper problems. The country’s politics revolves around weaponized Buddhist fundamentalism (the same flavour you see in Myanmar). For 70 years, it has just been politicians gaining by encouraging inter-ethnic conflict. The current regime was voted in based in strong anti-Muslim rhetoric. Soon, there will be another similar leadership. Until that changes, this country is no different than Afghanistan under the Taliban. Tourism has been the saving grace, but the 2019 bombings and pandemic mean it will likely never recover. At some point, change has to come from within.
• throwaway_4ever 4y ago
  Are many parts of the world simultaneously imploding more than usual or is it always like this? In addition: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Venezuela, Libya, and Ukraine are all in extremely dire straits from a previously prosperous time.
  • ilaksh 4y ago
    I think the economic situation globally has been deteriorating for years. And the countries that are not as well connected to centers of power or favor or just were on rockier ground, disputed, etc. to start with suffer more obviously at first.
    • kingkongjaffa 4y ago
      Yes, also countries without a strong internal industry I.e capable of producing valuable exports, or at least access to valuable natural resources to exploit, are in particularly bad weather right now. Over reliance on tourism without deep reserve wealth is a bad recipe when a pandemic grinds said tourism to a halt.
• rmk 4y ago
  Pakistan looks to be next. There will likely be some debt renegotiation and a bailout, attached with some pretty onerous terms I'm sure. A possible bad path is if the US decides to make an example out of Sri Lanka because it went all in on China's debt trap diplomacy. Does Sri Lanka occupy a strategic location on the busiest sea lanes? If so, then there may be some competition between China and the Quad that may play out in an interesting way.
  • Namari 4y ago
    Well there is already a Chinese port there that is used for the Maritime silk road but I'm sure this is an opportunity for them to create more. I feel like it's too late already, Biden is weak and I don't think there is any win for them to get involve.
    • kayxspre 4y ago
      There is also a Mattala Airport at the south of the country, funded by loans from China. Yet, there hasn't been much use of it, and it pretty much lose its intended purpose. I used to visit Sri Lanka in 2013, with the outbound flight making a (virtual) stop (no disembarking) there, and when I look out of the window, there's nothing much that indicates the potential of the airport or the surrounding area, despite it being billed as "international" airport.
      • deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      • Namari 4y ago
        hmm I wonder if it could be used for military purpose in the future.
  • realmod 4y ago
    > it went all in on China's debt trap diplomacy No. Debt owed to China is less than 10% of Sri Lanka's total debt. And it owes a lot more to western nations/institutes. I'm still shocked how this clearly unsubstantiated claim continues to circulate. The so called "China debt trap diplomacy" is a phenomenon mostly fabricated/promoted by columnists with a clear agenda.
• rramadass 4y ago
  I am more interested in knowing how Sri Lanka arrived at this state; How does a country "collapse"? Where were the Economists and Finance Guys? Were the economic/banking systems really this brittle with no resilience are all? I would appreciate somebody knowledgeable do some explaining. I have browsed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%93present_Sri_Lankan_economic_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%93present_Sri_Lanka... but still am not "getting" it. That said, i think Sri Lanka is doomed for at least a decade simply because of their outstanding Debt.
  • kylehotchkiss 4y ago
    Overdependence on imports, specifically with no land routes to accommodate them. Tourism too large of a share in GDP didn’t help either. The government also made some bad snap judgements like stopping their heavy fertilizer subsidies one day which wrecked crop outputs.
    • raxxorraxor 4y ago
      I think at that point they just didn't have any money left to import fertilizer. You can grow organic but not on soil that has been fertilized for years. The soil is completely dead and any water you pour into it will more or less vanish instantly. You probably need a decade or two to fertilize is naturally. Of course you also need a lot more land as you need crop rotations and the soil needs time to regenerate.
  • ThePhysicist 4y ago
    From my understanding a large factor was the haphazard banning of imported fertilizer by the Sri Lankan Green party and the resulting drop in crop/produce yields (I think more than 50 % overall). Turns out that modern agriculture cannot just be dialed back to organic farming without significant losses in productivity. In my opinion a textbook example where ideology-driven politics clashes with the hard facts of modern engineering.
    • xupybd 4y ago
      Yeah we trash the soil with the way we use fertilizer. There is much we can do to be smarter about it. Often by using less but more expensive fertilizers. This is hard to do as you need to address the specific soil conditions. See https://www.bioagrinomics.com/visual-soil-assessment https://www.bioagrinomics.com/visual-soil-assessment Additionally, increasing organic material can really help. Doing these things is however frowned upon by many who push the green agenda. Organic certification is difficult and not affordable for all. If there were a more pragmatic middle ground we could improve crop yields, drought tolerance and help the environment. Sadly not many push for the middle ground. It's all or nothing.
• an9n 4y ago
  Here's hoping they avoid death by IMF.
  • raxxorraxor 4y ago
    Either that or be entrapped by Chinese debt. But sure, there are similarities.
• 0xankit 4y ago
  they need better leadership. As of now i can see we will observe huge amount of terrorist activity.
• ncmncm 4y ago
  This is being treated as a failure of organic farming by mainstream media. Dow Chemical and Monsanto (which technically doesn't exist anymore; "Bayer BASF" now, maybe) would really like us to think so, and Big Media is always happy to do their part. But it was obviously really just massive government incompetence. It has been known for decades how to transition to organic methods successfully: incrementally, and with education. Both skipped. After a sensible transition, yields could be lower, per acre, but not necessarily. Money spent on fertilizer and pesticides would be much lower than that. Money previously sent abroad would have stayed in Sri Lanka, milling around in the local economy generating prosperity. Now they have chaos, and it will take a long time to get back to their previous, precarious state, probably in hock to China. Dow and BASF will get themselves well locked in; other countries will be spooked. A big success, for them. Not so for Sri Lankans.
  • flakyfilibuster 4y ago
    Thank you, I thought it was quite curious that the leading phase in the coverage was organic farming this and that - it is also rather difficult to find a different take on this. Are all news outlets sourcing their info from the same outlet when it comes to foreign affairs?
    • netsharc 4y ago
      If the media doesn't mention that the fertilizer ban was a "money saving" idea from one of the corrupt leaders, it's pretty myopic...
    • JohnHaugeland 4y ago
      No, there are dozens of sources "Mainstream media" means that someone is trying to spread doubt, and knows very little from audited sources. It's an extreme red flag
      • ncmncm 4y ago
        "Extreme red flag" is an extreme red flag.
• baremetal 4y ago
  The weakest dominos are falling first. Soon it will be the stronger countries. Euro now at parity with the dollar, and the yen is imploding. Saw this coming, bought farmland, learned skills. Hunkering down. If we get a global depression it will be worse than the last, because people lack the skills to grow their own food and fix things when they break.