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That game will get worse over time as people optimize for it too. It'll be a matter of trying to guess what's going to be in demand but not so in demand that p

That game will get worse over time as people optimize for it too. It'll be a matter of trying to guess what's going to be in demand but not so in demand that people are training for it because they are also trying to choose a career that's in demand. And as usual, those with the better information and means to switch paths or take multiple shots will be the ones who can come out ahead.

lumost 4y ago
Pretty much, We don't talk about it as often as we should - but post dot-com Software was a bad place to be. There was general fear that outsourcing to India would do to software what outsourcing to China was doing for Manufacturing. These fears culminated in an under-supply of CS majors through the 2000s and an oversupply of various "business" degrees. The assumed "ideal path" was to be in management so as not to be vulnerable to outsourcing. Flash forward to the 2010s and there are too many entry level accountants/financiers/managers in training, and too few software professionals. Even in fields with some shortages it's not a given that you will have bargaining power e.g. Nursing.
- TimPC 4y ago
  Even after the dot com crash software was never a bad field it just felt that way because it was worse than it had been at the peak. There was still enough demand for most people to get actual jobs somewhere just not at the wages they like. Fields that suffer from this in academia have small percentages of people who study for it actually end up doing related work. Sometimes as low as 5% of the people. Software is nowhere close to 19 in 20 people working outside the field even during its worst crashes.
- throwaway0a5e 4y ago
  >accountants/financiers/managers All of these professions do just fine, even the ones in which there's "oversupply". What these professions don't provide is readily available opportunity for someone of substantially below median intelligence and work ethic to make a very nice living with little more than token effort as is the case in software, or any other "hot" industry (in a cooler industry they plateau much closer to entry level).
  - IdiocyInAction 4y ago
    > substantially below median intelligence and work ethic to make a very nice living with little more than token effort as is the case in software I disagree that you can make a nice living room with "substantially below median intelligence" in software. Getting into FAANG+ is hard and plenty of people never even finish their degree or get a related job. I think you have no idea what people with "substantially below median intelligence" are like.
- Retric 4y ago
  Nursing pay did rise quite a bit with Covid, so I suspect there wasn't a shortage before then. This gets to a core issue with our system. Employers want an over supply to drive down wages and the easiest way to get that is misinformation.
sicp-enjoyer 4y ago
Actually I think those who come out the most ahead are those interested in the field, even when nobody else is. It seems a better strategy than trend hoping is to find something you like, that can plausibly be useful and invest in that.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
  That's not what GP is saying though: > The best bet for the future is to pick a career path that is not massively over supplied with candidates.
  - sicp-enjoyer 4y ago
    I agree, avoiding the worst career choices is easier than trying to find the good ones. Sorry if there was a confusion about context.
marcinzm 4y ago
There's a difference between picking the optimal career and not picking a career with the worst prospects. >And as usual, those with the better information and means to switch paths or take multiple shots will be the ones who can come out ahead. I feel a person should care more about their own happiness than how other people are doing.

lumost 4y ago

Pretty much, We don't talk about it as often as we should - but post dot-com Software was a bad place to be. There was general fear that outsourcing to India would do to software what outsourcing to China was doing for Manufacturing. These fears culminated in an under-supply of CS majors through the 2000s and an oversupply of various "business" degrees. The assumed "ideal path" was to be in management so as not to be vulnerable to outsourcing. Flash forward to the 2010s and there are too many entry level accountants/financiers/managers in training, and too few software professionals. Even in fields with some shortages it's not a given that you will have bargaining power e.g. Nursing.

TimPC 4y ago
Even after the dot com crash software was never a bad field it just felt that way because it was worse than it had been at the peak. There was still enough demand for most people to get actual jobs somewhere just not at the wages they like. Fields that suffer from this in academia have small percentages of people who study for it actually end up doing related work. Sometimes as low as 5% of the people. Software is nowhere close to 19 in 20 people working outside the field even during its worst crashes.
throwaway0a5e 4y ago
>accountants/financiers/managers All of these professions do just fine, even the ones in which there's "oversupply". What these professions don't provide is readily available opportunity for someone of substantially below median intelligence and work ethic to make a very nice living with little more than token effort as is the case in software, or any other "hot" industry (in a cooler industry they plateau much closer to entry level).
- IdiocyInAction 4y ago
  > substantially below median intelligence and work ethic to make a very nice living with little more than token effort as is the case in software I disagree that you can make a nice living room with "substantially below median intelligence" in software. Getting into FAANG+ is hard and plenty of people never even finish their degree or get a related job. I think you have no idea what people with "substantially below median intelligence" are like.
Retric 4y ago
Nursing pay did rise quite a bit with Covid, so I suspect there wasn't a shortage before then. This gets to a core issue with our system. Employers want an over supply to drive down wages and the easiest way to get that is misinformation.

sicp-enjoyer 4y ago

Actually I think those who come out the most ahead are those interested in the field, even when nobody else is. It seems a better strategy than trend hoping is to find something you like, that can plausibly be useful and invest in that.

SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
That's not what GP is saying though: > The best bet for the future is to pick a career path that is not massively over supplied with candidates.
- sicp-enjoyer 4y ago
  I agree, avoiding the worst career choices is easier than trying to find the good ones. Sorry if there was a confusion about context.

marcinzm 4y ago

There's a difference between picking the optimal career and not picking a career with the worst prospects. >And as usual, those with the better information and means to switch paths or take multiple shots will be the ones who can come out ahead. I feel a person should care more about their own happiness than how other people are doing.