4 ms·

I'm going to be really impressed and surprised if this ends up working (moving ETH to PoS). I'm still fairly skeptical. It seems like PoS has so many issues tha

I'm going to be really impressed and surprised if this ends up working (moving ETH to PoS). I'm still fairly skeptical. It seems like PoS has so many issues that come up with additional complexity being added to handle them. Worried it's increasing the attack surface too much and making a system that's not going to be able to be secured. That being said, I hope it works but it's been "two months from merge" for 5 years so hard to say

ruuda 4y ago
The Merge has been a pipe dream for a long time, but at this point, the implementation exists. Multiple testnets have already undergone the PoW -> PoS transition. Some minor implementation issues came up that have been fixed. I'm pretty confident it will happen, it's more a matter of more extensive testing and coordination at this point. As for when, Metaculus thinks 5 months from now [1], Polymarket thinks 2-3 months from now. [2] If you are truly skeptical about that timeline, you can make money on Polymarket (or virtual internet points on Metaculus). [1]: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7971/ethereum-consensus-mechanism/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7971/ethereum-consensus-... [2]: https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos
lazzlazzlazz 4y ago
I have been professionally close to the situation for more than four years, and it has never been "two months from the Merge" before. It was expected to be in about four years about five years ago. That's the most it's been delayed so far, which is impressive in my view given how much novel research has been required. For anyone curious about an academic explanation of the problems being solved by ETH 2.0's consensus model, see this paper[1] out of David Tse's lab at Stanford. [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04987 https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04987
- snapcaster 4y ago
  I'm not closely involved, and was speaking a little off the cuff referencing the perceptions given by casual observers by the hype crowd. Thanks for the info will read the paper linked
dcolkitt 4y ago
In addition to what others have said about testnet transitions already being successful, we already have multiple active PoS networks (Solana, Avalanche, Cosmos, BSC, etc.) that have been successfully securing billions of value for multiple years. Four or five years ago, it was tenable to say “PoS may just never be successful”, but saying that today ignores literally dozens of real world examples running in production.
- latchkey 4y ago
  The targets on those networks are a small fraction of ETH's marketcap. If one had an exploit against ETH2, it certainly won't be "announced" until after launch.

ruuda 4y ago

The Merge has been a pipe dream for a long time, but at this point, the implementation exists. Multiple testnets have already undergone the PoW -> PoS transition. Some minor implementation issues came up that have been fixed. I'm pretty confident it will happen, it's more a matter of more extensive testing and coordination at this point. As for when, Metaculus thinks 5 months from now [1], Polymarket thinks 2-3 months from now. [2] If you are truly skeptical about that timeline, you can make money on Polymarket (or virtual internet points on Metaculus). [1]: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7971/ethereum-consensus-mechanism/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7971/ethereum-consensus-... [2]: https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos

lazzlazzlazz 4y ago

I have been professionally close to the situation for more than four years, and it has never been "two months from the Merge" before. It was expected to be in about four years about five years ago. That's the most it's been delayed so far, which is impressive in my view given how much novel research has been required. For anyone curious about an academic explanation of the problems being solved by ETH 2.0's consensus model, see this paper[1] out of David Tse's lab at Stanford. [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04987 https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04987

snapcaster 4y ago
I'm not closely involved, and was speaking a little off the cuff referencing the perceptions given by casual observers by the hype crowd. Thanks for the info will read the paper linked

dcolkitt 4y ago

In addition to what others have said about testnet transitions already being successful, we already have multiple active PoS networks (Solana, Avalanche, Cosmos, BSC, etc.) that have been successfully securing billions of value for multiple years. Four or five years ago, it was tenable to say “PoS may just never be successful”, but saying that today ignores literally dozens of real world examples running in production.

latchkey 4y ago
The targets on those networks are a small fraction of ETH's marketcap. If one had an exploit against ETH2, it certainly won't be "announced" until after launch.