4 ms·

It appears that the world is becoming increasingly divided into two groups: those with "free" democratic systems and those without. And it feels very different

by baxtr 4y ago

It appears that the world is becoming increasingly divided into two groups: those with "free" democratic systems and those without. And it feels very different compared to the old West/East divide. Because, ideologically speaking, the "other side" has nothing to offer in comparison to the Communists. At least they offered something (in theory) to strive for.

throwaway331312 4y ago
Authoritarian regimes offer strong leadership in the age of peak brain fuck. To achive a sustainable way of life, which tackles alot of our problems, China is in a pretty good position to reign into its citizens lifes and change vast economic processes top to bottom.
- picsao 4y ago
inglor_cz 4y ago
I think the main line will be "stability and prosperity", at least when it comes to China and its aligned regimes. The Third World is full of countries and people who yearn for a vision of Chinese-like economic growth. I deliberately use the word vision, because I doubt that Sri Lanka or Pakistan can replicate Chinese growth in the real world, even if they adapted all the institutions of CCP. But their wannabe authoritarians can at least sell that vision to their own subjects, together with some material improvements financed from the Road and Belt warchest.
- oneoff786 4y ago
  It’ll be curious to see how that goes as their real estate sector continues collapsing
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    Even the "political stability" angle does not look so good after their chaotic Zero Covid policies that continue until today. These policies today look less rational and more like "we have a mad emperor on the throne" episode, especially when the rest of the world basically considers the epidemic history by now. Edit: Interesting that someone downvoted this. If I were a foreign investor, a chaotic policy of locking down big cities and subjecting foreign visitors to humiliating anal swabs etc. in order to keep down a respiratory virus with extreme R0 rate, much less deadly than original Covid, and with a ton of existing vaccines available, would be quite off-putting to me.
    - warning26 4y ago
      You’ll find there are many who genuinely drink the kool aid, and maintain that the two month Shanghai lockdown was proof the CCP cares about people, as opposed to the evil west which prioritizes money over all else. For what it’s worth, I think the Chinese lockdowns made sense early in the pandemic, but at this point are solidly in the mad-emperor-on-the-throne territory.
    - concinds 4y ago
      (First, I did not downvote) https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1531768589098921985 https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1531768589098921985 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1539219754338160641 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1539219754338160641 I think the 2 tweets above make a good case for an elimination strategy. Permanently circulating Covid means ever-increasing rates of long Covid, disability, unpredictably-disrupted large events (how can you plan anything a few months in advance with Covid still circulating?). And keep in mind that Covid isn't just for the old, the magnitude of risk increase is equal (proportional) for every age group; and that reinfections have worse outcomes (discredits "live with it"). The "live with Covid" strategy was never good, is still not good, will likely never be good, yet Western countries have burned down their political capital so much that if they ever try zero-Covid, they'd face civil unrest. Not a good situation they've built for themselves.
      - 4y ago
- liuliu 4y ago
  Unfortunately, you cannot have "stability" nor "prosperity" if the only means is to suppressing people's complaints away. It would be interesting to observe how China is doing in the next decades. As a Chinese and an outsider, the suppression looks real with each passing day (HK is miles better than anywhere in mainland, let's be clear about that).
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    I agree with you, but that is how the situation will be sold. "Go the Chinese way and you do not have to worry about nosy journalists and unexpected election losses. Rule at your will and be respected, or at least feared, by everyone underneath. And provide those subject with enough material comfort to become a bit complacent and afraid to shake up things."
FredPret 4y ago
Nothing to offer? Keep dreaming.
dogman144 4y ago
Other side as it relates to Europe, RU and some bleed over into the US has a clear theory - 4th Political Theory/Traditionalism, see Alexander Dugin. It’s behind most of the fascist-ish rise in Eastern Europe, invasion of Georgia/UKR, and quite a few links to the US. Fwiw, it comes from the observation you had about what is next if liberalism, communism, and fascism aren’t working for a culture? The answer is an odd hybrid of the three.
im3w1l 4y ago
Yeah I've noticed this too. It's basically democracy versus a number of disparate countries that have united over their shared dislike of democracy. As for what Russia and China can offer, there is no great ideology, but what I think they try to sell to their citizens is some combination of nationalism, wealth and solid pragmatic rule. The west is currently wealthier of course, but China is upwardly mobile so it remains to be seen whether they will eventually manage to eclipse say the US on a gdp/capita basis. If they manage to do that, and can contrast their leader with some unpopular US one, they will have a decent value proposition in many eyes.
- vkou 4y ago
  > Yeah I've noticed this too. It's basically democracy versus a number of disparate countries that have united over their shared dislike of democracy. Those countries haven't 'united over their shared dislike of democracy', they really can't give two rat's asses about how, say, the US, or France governs itself. "They hate us for our freedoms" is as wrong today as it was 21 years ago. What they are 'united' over is being to one extent or another, surrounded by US-aligned systems, that view them as an enemy. Aircraft carriers floating around just off their coasts, US military bases a few hundred miles from their borders, global trade and financial markets being fully dependent on the forbearance of Washington - that sort of thing. (Also, there are countries like, say, India, who have no dog in this fight, and also don't give a rat's ass about how other countries govern themselves, but see it as an opportunity to improve their trade relations - which is why India currently has no issues with forming closer ties with Russia. But, well, we don't want to piss India off, so for the most part, we quietly ignore that.)
  - im3w1l 4y ago
    They very much don't want to turn democratic themselves though.
  - imtringued 4y ago
    The list of countries that actively supported the Ukraine was so pathetic and embarrassing that you would think it was a bad joke. It is like you gathered a team of super villains but they were actually homeless people in costumes. >global trade and financial markets being fully dependent on the forbearance of Washington - that sort of thing. This feels very disingenuous. Nothings stops those countries from adopting a demurrage currency and outcompeting the US-aligned systems. Of course there is a reason why they don't do that, because demurrage has anti corruption properties. You can't just stash the money you obtained through corruption and maintain purchasing power and extort interest against the will of the rest of the population. Since capital gains approach zero and monopolies can't form, the only way you can keep your wealth is through honest work. Of course I am also assuming a land value tax.
tragomaskhalos 4y ago
Yes and with that ideological opposition came, strangely, a form of mutual respect that is today absent. It seems that the replacement ideology for totalitarians is essentially a crude nationalism, which claims that "we" are a proud independent people whose history and culture are superior; "our" only problem is that we are beset and undermined by the horrible machinations of the US and its puppets. That's certainly the essence of Putinism, although China is perhaps a little more nuanced.
2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
I think that they are trying to marry two opposing ideologies. Capitalism and Totalitarianism mix about as well as oil and water. The free exchange of ideas that is a boon to Capitalism is at odds with Totalitarianism. Something's gotta give but I've been saying that for awhile now.
- vkou 4y ago
  The mixture of capitalism and authoritarianism is called crony capitalism, and it works just fine, especially if you're one of the cronies.
- Barrin92 4y ago
  There's practically no totalitarian countries around any more. What a lot of countries are marrying is capitalism and authoritarianism, which sits at the opposite spectrum. Authoritarianism advocates a depolitized society (as William Gibson used to say, 'Disneyland with the death penalty'), totalitarianism aims for mass mobilization, and nobody has any energy for that kind of stuff any more. The young men are all playing video games, not patrolling the streets as brownshirts. Capitalism and autocracy work perfectly well, as Peter Sloterdijk often points out, Lee Kuan Yew may very well be the most consequential person of the second half of the 20th century, by building the basic model for capitalist states without democracy or civil so ciety in Singapore. In fact the most fundamental unit of capitalism, the private corporation is exactly what most non-democratic states today aim to emulate.

by baxtr 4y ago

throwaway331312 4y ago

Authoritarian regimes offer strong leadership in the age of peak brain fuck. To achive a sustainable way of life, which tackles alot of our problems, China is in a pretty good position to reign into its citizens lifes and change vast economic processes top to bottom.

picsao 4y ago

inglor_cz 4y ago

I think the main line will be "stability and prosperity", at least when it comes to China and its aligned regimes. The Third World is full of countries and people who yearn for a vision of Chinese-like economic growth. I deliberately use the word vision, because I doubt that Sri Lanka or Pakistan can replicate Chinese growth in the real world, even if they adapted all the institutions of CCP. But their wannabe authoritarians can at least sell that vision to their own subjects, together with some material improvements financed from the Road and Belt warchest.

oneoff786 4y ago
It’ll be curious to see how that goes as their real estate sector continues collapsing
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  Even the "political stability" angle does not look so good after their chaotic Zero Covid policies that continue until today. These policies today look less rational and more like "we have a mad emperor on the throne" episode, especially when the rest of the world basically considers the epidemic history by now. Edit: Interesting that someone downvoted this. If I were a foreign investor, a chaotic policy of locking down big cities and subjecting foreign visitors to humiliating anal swabs etc. in order to keep down a respiratory virus with extreme R0 rate, much less deadly than original Covid, and with a ton of existing vaccines available, would be quite off-putting to me.
  - warning26 4y ago
    You’ll find there are many who genuinely drink the kool aid, and maintain that the two month Shanghai lockdown was proof the CCP cares about people, as opposed to the evil west which prioritizes money over all else. For what it’s worth, I think the Chinese lockdowns made sense early in the pandemic, but at this point are solidly in the mad-emperor-on-the-throne territory.
  - concinds 4y ago
    (First, I did not downvote) https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1531768589098921985 https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1531768589098921985 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1539219754338160641 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1539219754338160641 I think the 2 tweets above make a good case for an elimination strategy. Permanently circulating Covid means ever-increasing rates of long Covid, disability, unpredictably-disrupted large events (how can you plan anything a few months in advance with Covid still circulating?). And keep in mind that Covid isn't just for the old, the magnitude of risk increase is equal (proportional) for every age group; and that reinfections have worse outcomes (discredits "live with it"). The "live with Covid" strategy was never good, is still not good, will likely never be good, yet Western countries have burned down their political capital so much that if they ever try zero-Covid, they'd face civil unrest. Not a good situation they've built for themselves.
    - 4y ago
liuliu 4y ago
Unfortunately, you cannot have "stability" nor "prosperity" if the only means is to suppressing people's complaints away. It would be interesting to observe how China is doing in the next decades. As a Chinese and an outsider, the suppression looks real with each passing day (HK is miles better than anywhere in mainland, let's be clear about that).
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  I agree with you, but that is how the situation will be sold. "Go the Chinese way and you do not have to worry about nosy journalists and unexpected election losses. Rule at your will and be respected, or at least feared, by everyone underneath. And provide those subject with enough material comfort to become a bit complacent and afraid to shake up things."

FredPret 4y ago

Nothing to offer? Keep dreaming.

dogman144 4y ago

Other side as it relates to Europe, RU and some bleed over into the US has a clear theory - 4th Political Theory/Traditionalism, see Alexander Dugin. It’s behind most of the fascist-ish rise in Eastern Europe, invasion of Georgia/UKR, and quite a few links to the US. Fwiw, it comes from the observation you had about what is next if liberalism, communism, and fascism aren’t working for a culture? The answer is an odd hybrid of the three.

im3w1l 4y ago

Yeah I've noticed this too. It's basically democracy versus a number of disparate countries that have united over their shared dislike of democracy. As for what Russia and China can offer, there is no great ideology, but what I think they try to sell to their citizens is some combination of nationalism, wealth and solid pragmatic rule. The west is currently wealthier of course, but China is upwardly mobile so it remains to be seen whether they will eventually manage to eclipse say the US on a gdp/capita basis. If they manage to do that, and can contrast their leader with some unpopular US one, they will have a decent value proposition in many eyes.

vkou 4y ago
> Yeah I've noticed this too. It's basically democracy versus a number of disparate countries that have united over their shared dislike of democracy. Those countries haven't 'united over their shared dislike of democracy', they really can't give two rat's asses about how, say, the US, or France governs itself. "They hate us for our freedoms" is as wrong today as it was 21 years ago. What they are 'united' over is being to one extent or another, surrounded by US-aligned systems, that view them as an enemy. Aircraft carriers floating around just off their coasts, US military bases a few hundred miles from their borders, global trade and financial markets being fully dependent on the forbearance of Washington - that sort of thing. (Also, there are countries like, say, India, who have no dog in this fight, and also don't give a rat's ass about how other countries govern themselves, but see it as an opportunity to improve their trade relations - which is why India currently has no issues with forming closer ties with Russia. But, well, we don't want to piss India off, so for the most part, we quietly ignore that.)
- im3w1l 4y ago
  They very much don't want to turn democratic themselves though.
- imtringued 4y ago
  The list of countries that actively supported the Ukraine was so pathetic and embarrassing that you would think it was a bad joke. It is like you gathered a team of super villains but they were actually homeless people in costumes. >global trade and financial markets being fully dependent on the forbearance of Washington - that sort of thing. This feels very disingenuous. Nothings stops those countries from adopting a demurrage currency and outcompeting the US-aligned systems. Of course there is a reason why they don't do that, because demurrage has anti corruption properties. You can't just stash the money you obtained through corruption and maintain purchasing power and extort interest against the will of the rest of the population. Since capital gains approach zero and monopolies can't form, the only way you can keep your wealth is through honest work. Of course I am also assuming a land value tax.

tragomaskhalos 4y ago

Yes and with that ideological opposition came, strangely, a form of mutual respect that is today absent. It seems that the replacement ideology for totalitarians is essentially a crude nationalism, which claims that "we" are a proud independent people whose history and culture are superior; "our" only problem is that we are beset and undermined by the horrible machinations of the US and its puppets. That's certainly the essence of Putinism, although China is perhaps a little more nuanced.

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago

I think that they are trying to marry two opposing ideologies. Capitalism and Totalitarianism mix about as well as oil and water. The free exchange of ideas that is a boon to Capitalism is at odds with Totalitarianism. Something's gotta give but I've been saying that for awhile now.

vkou 4y ago
The mixture of capitalism and authoritarianism is called crony capitalism, and it works just fine, especially if you're one of the cronies.
Barrin92 4y ago
There's practically no totalitarian countries around any more. What a lot of countries are marrying is capitalism and authoritarianism, which sits at the opposite spectrum. Authoritarianism advocates a depolitized society (as William Gibson used to say, 'Disneyland with the death penalty'), totalitarianism aims for mass mobilization, and nobody has any energy for that kind of stuff any more. The young men are all playing video games, not patrolling the streets as brownshirts. Capitalism and autocracy work perfectly well, as Peter Sloterdijk often points out, Lee Kuan Yew may very well be the most consequential person of the second half of the 20th century, by building the basic model for capitalist states without democracy or civil so ciety in Singapore. In fact the most fundamental unit of capitalism, the private corporation is exactly what most non-democratic states today aim to emulate.