5 ms·
> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2% The real figure is more 2.1% (sour
by alcio 4y ago
> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%
The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)
- tdrgabi 4y agoI'm confused, where does the 2.1% come from. It does look like 0.001795 which is 0.2% for a 30 year old in the source you linked
- vicek22 4y agoThe number you read is for dying within the next year. The OP said within a decade.
- kevinpet 4y agoOP also said "in their 30s" not "at 30". So I'd use 35-45 rather than 30-40, which shifts it a bit.
- cupofpython 4y agoSince I already have the spreadsheet built for my other comment: 30-39 is 2.1% 35-44 is 2.5% 40-49 is 3.3% --------- 30-49 is 5.3% Ranges are inclusive of entire year. 30-39 is 30th bday to 40th bday
- cupofpython 4y ago.001795 for year 30 = .998205 survival this year .001858 for year 31 = .998142 ... .002482 for year 39 = .997518 --------------------- .998205 x .998142 x ... x .997518 = .978997 survival rate over 10 years 1 - .978997 = .021003 chance of death = 2.1%
- throwoutway 4y agoWhich is about the same rate that airlines lose luggage. (Unrelated comparison but analogies can help)
- yakshaving_jgt 4y agoI've experienced an airline losing my luggage, but I haven't experienced death yet. Maybe I'm immortal :)
- darkerside 4y agoLiteral survivorship bias :-D
- jerrre 4y agoMaybe you've flewn more times than you lived from 30-40
- thfuran 4y agoThat's a fairly deceptive analogy though. Many people check baggage a lot more (or less) than once per year.
- dahart 4y agoThat’s exactly the opposite of why it’s an unrelated analogy (which was stated). People live days of their lives far more often than they check baggage. Death is not a once per year risk. The risk of losing luggage per day or per hour of traveling is much higher than the risk of dying per hour/day of living.
- Alex3917 4y agoFair, I was just going by the risk of fatal cardiovascular events: https://www.cvriskcalculator.com/ https://www.cvriskcalculator.com/ I feel like the indie hacking lifestyle doesn't really attract people who are at high risk for most other common causes of death at that age, in the same way that, say, raising venture capital seems to be an attractive option for people already at risk of suicide or drug overdose.
- formvoltron 4y agoI guess most entrepreneurs are not dying from drugs or guns as they are simply too busy!
- ihaveajob 4y agoUnintentional injury (likely mostly car crashes?) seems to be the leading cause for all age group up to age 44. Then come suicide/homicide which only start declining in the ranks in your 40s, probably because other causes (cancer, heart conditions) start to take over. I'm in my 40s and officially more likely to have my heart kill me, than myself. https://wisqars.cdc.gov/fatal-leading https://wisqars.cdc.gov/fatal-leading
- imdsm 4y agoI don't like these numbers. I preferred the old numbers.