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“Only one war 60 years ago” underestimates the impact that goblins/orcs have. It’s not wars alone that cause depopulation, it’s the constant raids. The orcs hav

“Only one war 60 years ago” underestimates the impact that goblins/orcs have. It’s not wars alone that cause depopulation, it’s the constant raids. The orcs have secure holds in the Misty Mountains that allow them to raid all surrounding areas at will. This keeps these areas thinly populated. The exceptions are places like Lake Town, which are highly defensible. It’s not really possible to attack the orcs in their mountain homes for anyone except Dwarves. And even Dwarves understood their limits. In the War of the Dwarves and Orcs (TA 2793-2799) they sacked every orc stronghold from “Gundabad to the Gladden” but even then did not dare to enter Moria, where orcs remained secure and continued to multiply.

nosianu 4y ago
But there were not many orcs and goblins for a long time in many areas, as we learned from the books. They only came back and multiplied with the slow return-growth of Sauron. I would be more interested in the period of when Moria was thriving - when they wrote the password for the back door right above it. Meaning, those must have been one of the most peaceful periods in the wider regions history. How dense was the population at that time?
- Amezarak 4y ago
  > But there were not many orcs and goblins for a long time in many areas, as we learned from the books. They only came back and multiplied with the slow return-growth of Sauron. Sauron had already returned c1000 TA to Dol Guldur. We're specifically told that evil things, such as Orcs, begin multiplying in number by c1300 TA, which triggers the migration of the Hobbits to the Shire (already we have an example of why there's less people than we expect.) In c1400 the Nazgul begin their long destruction of the disunited (perennially entangled in civil war) kingdoms of Arnor. In c1500, Gondor is embroiled in devastating wars with Harad. In the 1600s a Great Plague depopulates the North and West: "many parts of Eriador become desolate"; not long before, Gondor has had a horrible civil war. During the plague, even the Shire suffers "great loss." In the 1800s Gondor is again involved in a costly war, this time against the Wainriders, and loses its eastern territories. In 1981 TA Moria falls. In the 2400s Gondor is again under a major attack by (though they do not know it) Sauron, and Sauron is able to use the Orcs in the Misty Mountains to effectively cut off Eriador from the rest of the continent. in the 2500s, the Gondorians are bailed out of a major disaster by the appearance of the Rohirrim, but shortly after, the dragons appear and decimate the dwarves. In the 2700s, after centuries of Orc attacks in the region, the Hobbits themselves defeat a band of Orcs; shortly after, Dale and the Iron Mountain fall to Smaug, Rhoah is nearly destroyed, and Gondor is attacked by fleets of Corsairs. In addition, there is a devastating winter that causes "great suffering and loss of life"; in the same century, Smaug annihilates Erebor and Dale, and there's a major, costly war between the dwarves and the Orcs. In the following centuries, there are continual major Orc attacks. In 2900 Men finally abandon Ithilien. In 2911 there is another devastating winter, and the year after, great floods that result in the desertion of Tharbad and Minhiriath. The Hobbit begins in 2941. Orcs have been in force for 1600 years.
  - fallingknife 4y ago
    Wars and plagues every couple hundred years or so. So what you are saying is that wars and plagues are significantly less frequent then they were in pre-industrial Earth.
    - Amezarak 4y ago
      No, there was constant low-level warfare for 1600 years which even directly led to the Hobbits fleeing their original home. It’s also for example the reason why the troll-wastes are desolate. The major wars and disasters were on top of that. It’s 1600 years of an active, organizing intelligence whittling the West away and which saw the _destruction_ of multiple major kingdoms and settlements prior to the beginning of the story. The people of Arnor were nearly exterminated as a result of the Witch-King, for example. These were not wars like medieval wars. They were wars that entailed abject slavery or genocide for the losers.
    - vidarh 4y ago
      "Wars and plagues" can vary in scale from having next to no impact to being world-changing events, so in isolation it tells you nothing. One of the more common last names in Norway is still "Ødegaard", literally "Deserted farm", reflecting families who were residing on farms which still had not gotten a proper name by the time the tradition of using your fathers first-name as a last time started dying out. This even then - by the 1800's - involved re-clearing farms that had still not been re-settled after the Black Death. Of the ca. 36500 farms which existed in Norway around year 1300, only about 16000 were still populated by 1520, and the population is believed by some sources to still have been only half of what it was in 1300. It was not until the 17th century that Norway "recovered" - that is, until it was back to pre-plague, levels, having lost several centuries of growth, but with population centres having changed, leaving many ancient farms still empty reminders. In Norway, a disproportionate portion of the political and religious elite died. E.g. while almost the bishops in Sweden survived, all but the bishop of Oslo died in Norway. The Northern provinces of Norway were left to their own devices for a long time, without a functioning government, because so few government officials were left that the king chose to focus restoration in the South and largely just abandoned them. That was one event. I also don't recall running into Nazgul and Orcs while growing up near Oslo, and imagine facing that might have been a rather severe deterrent to growth. EDIT: I'll add that Norway is a good reminder that a combination of destructive events, harsh conditions and the extremity of the hockey stick nature of population growth can explain a lot. Norway today has a population density of ~14 per km^2. In 1950 that would've been ~8. In the mid 18th century about ~3. In the aftermath of the plague, likely <1, and still <1 by the 16th century. You can still travel on foot for days through central Norway without meeting people if you stay clear of the places most popular with people out hiking for fun. A couple of centuries back, and not only would you be able to do that, but you'd have been likely to now and again come across farms that had been empty for centuries, despite centuries of a growth and recovery.
- matkoniecz 4y ago
  > How dense was the population at that time? not well defined, but it was time of significant progress in metallurgy and magic, for example greater rings of power were forged at that time.
gostsamo 4y ago
The shire hasn't seen any raids for generations and the only thing that protects them are a few hundred irregulars under the command of Aragorn. Another example for unexplainably depopulated region is the area between the shire and the sea. Far from the mountains, those lands are not known to have large settlements.
- Amezarak 4y ago
  In Bilbo's youth, the Fell Winter took place, and "White Wolves" invaded Eriador. The Great Plague some time before and the Long Winter are explicitly said to have depopulated Eriador and left it "desolate." The Rangers were also not infallible. Obviously they did nothing to stop the Nazgul or large numbers of Saruman's agents in the time of the Lord of the Rings, nor did they stop the Orc-band that invaded the Shire a hundred years before the story.
  - gostsamo 4y ago
    See though that all of these disasters are spread over 1500 years. Most of them supposedly kill people, but they don't make the land uninhabitable and nothing stops from next generations repopulating them. Keep in mind that Europe suffers at least two big plagues, migration waves, a mini ice age and lots of other disasters. The main depopulation factors are hunger and food logistics collapse.
    - vidarh 4y ago
      Norway took a several centuries to get back to ~1300 levels after the Black Death going from ~37k farms in 1300 to still only 16k farms by 1520, nation wide (and we're not talking large farms here, in most cases). Entire regions were entirely abandoned by the government. Many farms that were abandoned after the plague where not cleared until the 1800's. If the population density was low to start with, and food production tough, recovery from even a single major enough event can take a very long time.
      - gostsamo 4y ago

nosianu 4y ago

But there were not many orcs and goblins for a long time in many areas, as we learned from the books. They only came back and multiplied with the slow return-growth of Sauron. I would be more interested in the period of when Moria was thriving - when they wrote the password for the back door right above it. Meaning, those must have been one of the most peaceful periods in the wider regions history. How dense was the population at that time?

Amezarak 4y ago
> But there were not many orcs and goblins for a long time in many areas, as we learned from the books. They only came back and multiplied with the slow return-growth of Sauron. Sauron had already returned c1000 TA to Dol Guldur. We're specifically told that evil things, such as Orcs, begin multiplying in number by c1300 TA, which triggers the migration of the Hobbits to the Shire (already we have an example of why there's less people than we expect.) In c1400 the Nazgul begin their long destruction of the disunited (perennially entangled in civil war) kingdoms of Arnor. In c1500, Gondor is embroiled in devastating wars with Harad. In the 1600s a Great Plague depopulates the North and West: "many parts of Eriador become desolate"; not long before, Gondor has had a horrible civil war. During the plague, even the Shire suffers "great loss." In the 1800s Gondor is again involved in a costly war, this time against the Wainriders, and loses its eastern territories. In 1981 TA Moria falls. In the 2400s Gondor is again under a major attack by (though they do not know it) Sauron, and Sauron is able to use the Orcs in the Misty Mountains to effectively cut off Eriador from the rest of the continent. in the 2500s, the Gondorians are bailed out of a major disaster by the appearance of the Rohirrim, but shortly after, the dragons appear and decimate the dwarves. In the 2700s, after centuries of Orc attacks in the region, the Hobbits themselves defeat a band of Orcs; shortly after, Dale and the Iron Mountain fall to Smaug, Rhoah is nearly destroyed, and Gondor is attacked by fleets of Corsairs. In addition, there is a devastating winter that causes "great suffering and loss of life"; in the same century, Smaug annihilates Erebor and Dale, and there's a major, costly war between the dwarves and the Orcs. In the following centuries, there are continual major Orc attacks. In 2900 Men finally abandon Ithilien. In 2911 there is another devastating winter, and the year after, great floods that result in the desertion of Tharbad and Minhiriath. The Hobbit begins in 2941. Orcs have been in force for 1600 years.
- fallingknife 4y ago
  Wars and plagues every couple hundred years or so. So what you are saying is that wars and plagues are significantly less frequent then they were in pre-industrial Earth.
  - Amezarak 4y ago
    No, there was constant low-level warfare for 1600 years which even directly led to the Hobbits fleeing their original home. It’s also for example the reason why the troll-wastes are desolate. The major wars and disasters were on top of that. It’s 1600 years of an active, organizing intelligence whittling the West away and which saw the _destruction_ of multiple major kingdoms and settlements prior to the beginning of the story. The people of Arnor were nearly exterminated as a result of the Witch-King, for example. These were not wars like medieval wars. They were wars that entailed abject slavery or genocide for the losers.
  - vidarh 4y ago
    "Wars and plagues" can vary in scale from having next to no impact to being world-changing events, so in isolation it tells you nothing. One of the more common last names in Norway is still "Ødegaard", literally "Deserted farm", reflecting families who were residing on farms which still had not gotten a proper name by the time the tradition of using your fathers first-name as a last time started dying out. This even then - by the 1800's - involved re-clearing farms that had still not been re-settled after the Black Death. Of the ca. 36500 farms which existed in Norway around year 1300, only about 16000 were still populated by 1520, and the population is believed by some sources to still have been only half of what it was in 1300. It was not until the 17th century that Norway "recovered" - that is, until it was back to pre-plague, levels, having lost several centuries of growth, but with population centres having changed, leaving many ancient farms still empty reminders. In Norway, a disproportionate portion of the political and religious elite died. E.g. while almost the bishops in Sweden survived, all but the bishop of Oslo died in Norway. The Northern provinces of Norway were left to their own devices for a long time, without a functioning government, because so few government officials were left that the king chose to focus restoration in the South and largely just abandoned them. That was one event. I also don't recall running into Nazgul and Orcs while growing up near Oslo, and imagine facing that might have been a rather severe deterrent to growth. EDIT: I'll add that Norway is a good reminder that a combination of destructive events, harsh conditions and the extremity of the hockey stick nature of population growth can explain a lot. Norway today has a population density of ~14 per km^2. In 1950 that would've been ~8. In the mid 18th century about ~3. In the aftermath of the plague, likely <1, and still <1 by the 16th century. You can still travel on foot for days through central Norway without meeting people if you stay clear of the places most popular with people out hiking for fun. A couple of centuries back, and not only would you be able to do that, but you'd have been likely to now and again come across farms that had been empty for centuries, despite centuries of a growth and recovery.
matkoniecz 4y ago
> How dense was the population at that time? not well defined, but it was time of significant progress in metallurgy and magic, for example greater rings of power were forged at that time.

gostsamo 4y ago

The shire hasn't seen any raids for generations and the only thing that protects them are a few hundred irregulars under the command of Aragorn. Another example for unexplainably depopulated region is the area between the shire and the sea. Far from the mountains, those lands are not known to have large settlements.

Amezarak 4y ago
In Bilbo's youth, the Fell Winter took place, and "White Wolves" invaded Eriador. The Great Plague some time before and the Long Winter are explicitly said to have depopulated Eriador and left it "desolate." The Rangers were also not infallible. Obviously they did nothing to stop the Nazgul or large numbers of Saruman's agents in the time of the Lord of the Rings, nor did they stop the Orc-band that invaded the Shire a hundred years before the story.
- gostsamo 4y ago
  See though that all of these disasters are spread over 1500 years. Most of them supposedly kill people, but they don't make the land uninhabitable and nothing stops from next generations repopulating them. Keep in mind that Europe suffers at least two big plagues, migration waves, a mini ice age and lots of other disasters. The main depopulation factors are hunger and food logistics collapse.
  - vidarh 4y ago
    Norway took a several centuries to get back to ~1300 levels after the Black Death going from ~37k farms in 1300 to still only 16k farms by 1520, nation wide (and we're not talking large farms here, in most cases). Entire regions were entirely abandoned by the government. Many farms that were abandoned after the plague where not cleared until the 1800's. If the population density was low to start with, and food production tough, recovery from even a single major enough event can take a very long time.
    - gostsamo 4y ago