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I've been reading The End of The World is Just the Beginning https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/006323047X https://www.amazon.com/

I've been reading The End of The World is Just the Beginning https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/006323047X https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalizatio... I hope he is wrong about globalization falling apart, but articles like this are right out of his book.

tommiegannert 4y ago
I didn't have the patience to finish The Fourth Turning [1], but it's arguing that the US has been working on 80 year major cycles for a long time. I like "end of a cycle" better than "end of the world." :) I'd be interested to know if there are related studies outside the US. Something I didn't learn about until recently [2] was Glocalization. Wikipedia [3] says it's been around since the 80s. Perhaps now's a good time to bring it out again. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio... 2. https://drpippa.substack.com/p/glocalization https://drpippa.substack.com/p/glocalization 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glocalization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glocalization
- yucky 4y ago
  I read that and found it fascinating. Everything doesn't fit as neatly into the 80 year cycles as they might like, but I think they acknowledge that.
- Litost 4y ago
  I'm not that familiar with the Fourth Turning and this also originates from the US, but I did find it quite helpful when considering where things are, have been and might be going and how the US is in a cycle along with other nations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 I'd also not heard of Glocalization, but it reminds me of a couple of topics that are covered in Fritjof Capra's Systems View of Life book (also a course), around emergent behaviour in complex systems and how this competes with top down command and control ideas (or in organisations as the formal and informal networks).
causi 4y ago
So far it seems like we're doing the "worst of both worlds" approach, where trade becomes crazy expensive and we don't build domestic capacity and global oil falls apart and we don't make up for it at home with increased capacity or export restrictions. We're in a situation where the US neither produces its own ships nor lets foreign-owned ships move cargo between US ports. Frankly I think Zeihan's biggest flaw, other than absurd simplification of complex industries, is that he's far too optimistic about the ability of countries, particularly the US, to act even remotely in their own best interests. Political decisions aren't being made according to what someone (right or wrong) thinks will benefit us; they're being made on the basis of validating our personal socio-political identities. If X is associated with your party then you push for X whether or not X is obviously suicidal. Scoring points off the opposition has become more important than survival.
- nugget 4y ago
  My understanding is that the US President (currently Biden) can unilaterally ban oil exports and that this would immediately drop US oil prices to $70-80/barrel and spike global oil prices by 30%+. I wonder how bad domestic gas prices would need to be before this happens because it definitely feels like it would be a permanent nail in the coffin of energy globalization.
  - causi 4y ago
    It would certainly screw over US allies but it wouldn't do that much good for domestic prices because domestic refineries aren't built to use light/sweet American oil. Domestic production would collapse as domestic oil sat unusable for months. What we need is taxes/regulations to force the building of refineries to process domestic crude.
    - b112 4y ago
      Hold on, I'm in Canada, and the story here, is that we don't have domestic refineries, we get gas from US ones, now I hear you guys are told the you don't have domestic refineries too?! What, is everyone told this???
tomjen3 4y ago
In this case it seems more like a country that is severely mismanaged is now falling apart completely. I feel for the people in it, but this is not indicative of the real state of the world.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

tommiegannert 4y ago

I didn't have the patience to finish The Fourth Turning [1], but it's arguing that the US has been working on 80 year major cycles for a long time. I like "end of a cycle" better than "end of the world." :) I'd be interested to know if there are related studies outside the US. Something I didn't learn about until recently [2] was Glocalization. Wikipedia [3] says it's been around since the 80s. Perhaps now's a good time to bring it out again. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio... 2. https://drpippa.substack.com/p/glocalization https://drpippa.substack.com/p/glocalization 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glocalization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glocalization

yucky 4y ago
I read that and found it fascinating. Everything doesn't fit as neatly into the 80 year cycles as they might like, but I think they acknowledge that.
Litost 4y ago
I'm not that familiar with the Fourth Turning and this also originates from the US, but I did find it quite helpful when considering where things are, have been and might be going and how the US is in a cycle along with other nations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 I'd also not heard of Glocalization, but it reminds me of a couple of topics that are covered in Fritjof Capra's Systems View of Life book (also a course), around emergent behaviour in complex systems and how this competes with top down command and control ideas (or in organisations as the formal and informal networks).

causi 4y ago

So far it seems like we're doing the "worst of both worlds" approach, where trade becomes crazy expensive and we don't build domestic capacity and global oil falls apart and we don't make up for it at home with increased capacity or export restrictions. We're in a situation where the US neither produces its own ships nor lets foreign-owned ships move cargo between US ports. Frankly I think Zeihan's biggest flaw, other than absurd simplification of complex industries, is that he's far too optimistic about the ability of countries, particularly the US, to act even remotely in their own best interests. Political decisions aren't being made according to what someone (right or wrong) thinks will benefit us; they're being made on the basis of validating our personal socio-political identities. If X is associated with your party then you push for X whether or not X is obviously suicidal. Scoring points off the opposition has become more important than survival.

nugget 4y ago
My understanding is that the US President (currently Biden) can unilaterally ban oil exports and that this would immediately drop US oil prices to $70-80/barrel and spike global oil prices by 30%+. I wonder how bad domestic gas prices would need to be before this happens because it definitely feels like it would be a permanent nail in the coffin of energy globalization.
- causi 4y ago
  It would certainly screw over US allies but it wouldn't do that much good for domestic prices because domestic refineries aren't built to use light/sweet American oil. Domestic production would collapse as domestic oil sat unusable for months. What we need is taxes/regulations to force the building of refineries to process domestic crude.
  - b112 4y ago
    Hold on, I'm in Canada, and the story here, is that we don't have domestic refineries, we get gas from US ones, now I hear you guys are told the you don't have domestic refineries too?! What, is everyone told this???

tomjen3 4y ago

In this case it seems more like a country that is severely mismanaged is now falling apart completely. I feel for the people in it, but this is not indicative of the real state of the world.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]