12 ms·

Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

184 points by paulbaumgart 4y ago

joshgroban 4y ago
- s09dfhks 4y ago
  Can you show me the line in the article that mentions the auto industry
swamp_cypress 4y ago
First picture in the article show a scene from Brisbane, where I live. And there are a lot of these suburbs. Brisbane is built on a flood-plain. But the house prices in the low-lying suburbs that were hit hardest are still very strong. And my home insurance has gone up by 30%.
- jamal-kumar 4y ago
  I'm actually pretty amazed that it seems to go from east to west as well, I always thought that the weather system was strictly an American thing that went from south to north.
- aaron695 4y ago
ianai 4y ago
Really starting to feel dangerous to live anywhere in the US southwest. Lake Meade approaching deadpool and massive wildfire nearing my house this summer. Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help.
- kurthr 4y ago
  I thought the 9 most terrifying words were, "I'm from the government and I’m here to help"? What do you expect the Feds to do about the weather?
  - losteric 4y ago
    > What do you expect the Feds to do about the weather? Intervene and rebalance the water markets, which are currently unsustainable based on bad decades-old science.
    - enraged_camel 4y ago
      Water markets are broken primarily because of water rights, some of which were allocated centuries ago via local and regional contracts. They are nearly impossible to untangle, and state governments are required by law to honor them.
      - WoahNoun 4y ago
        Congress can use eminent domain to untangle them.
        bogomipz 4y ago
        Can you walk me through how the Federal Government could use eminent domain to untangle the water rights? What exactly is the Government going to expropriate as part of eminent domain? There are seven states that depend on the water from the Colorado River.
        lovich 4y ago
        > Can you walk me through how the Federal Government could use eminent domain to untangle the water rights? Eminent domaining the water? The federal government at the highest level(SCOTUS) have no problem using eminent domain for things as frivolous as an unfinanced mall with no strings attached for the _private_ developer. They certainly wouldn't pause to eminent domain this if they cared. Unfortunately these are regions of the country that are populated by large groups of people who continually elect local politicians who will blame any convenient boogeyman on their problems. Look at this in 2021 their AG sued the Biden government over not doing enough to stop pollution causing climate change because his administration didn’t crack down on _immigrants_[1]. What exactly is political leadership supposed to do here? Kowtow to the demands that will cost money and absolutely not solve the problem? Or ignore it until the people living with the issue decide to accept that it’s real rather than blaming whatever let’s them continue their lifestyle without any change? [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-climate-lawsuit_n_60897a42e4b0b9042d8d6ae5/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-...
- jonny_eh 4y ago
  Maybe the Southwest should elect representatives that believe in climate change.
  - bikingbismuth 4y ago
    Man, we are trying.
  - jdminhbg 4y ago
    All eight Senators from CA, AZ, NV, and NM are Democrats, and I assume they "believe in climate change," although I'm not sure whether simply believing is going to make much of a difference.
    - WoahNoun 4y ago
      Senators don't make local policy.
      - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
        that was a reply to the suggestion that "maybe" the area should elect senators who believe in climate change. we already have. it wasn't a suggestion that this is actually the answer.
        erikpukinskis 4y ago
        They said representatives not senators. There are state senators who are the relevant representatives here not federal ones.
        PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
        CA and NM both have Democratic "trifectas", and it can reasonably be assumed that they are dominated by anthropogenic climate change believers. However, I would dispute your claim. The majority of the land (and thus resources) in the SW is under federal, not state control. Ergo, federal representatives play an outsize role in deciding questions central to the SW role in and sufferer of climate change.
- tjr225 4y ago
  If you live near the wilderness urban interface expect this. Spreading out into mountain/desert suburbs causes issues that you would've never noticed before because well... millions and millions of people never lived there before. This especially applies to any sort of libertarian psycho who wants to live in the middle of nowhere with minimal govt and then when nature shtf they bitch about the govt.
- chipotle_coyote 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - pram 4y ago
    I have heard it used unironically. People in NYC and SF NEVER have anything but noble and well intentioned thoughts and comments about places like Texas? lol what an absolute load of shit
    - chipotle_coyote 4y ago
      You know, I was going to let this go, or just post a snarky "totally not what I said, but you do you, ace," but no. What you did was take what I said, rephrase it to something that I absolutely did not say, and then attack your own rephrasing. You're right. That is an absolute load of shit.
      - pram 4y ago
        “virtually always” and “have never encountered evidence” uh huh
        lovich 4y ago
        Was he supposed to prove that this is true in every situation for all time or were we talking about general trends? Also New York at least sends aid to Texas in their time of need[1] unlike in the reverse when Texan senators make sure no aid goes to New York in the event of a natural disaster[2]. Actions speak louder than words and I don't see New York as a state treating Texas as a state to abandon while Texas is advocating for anything against NY. [1]https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/21/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-texas-relief/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/21/politics/alexandria-ocasio-co... [2] Grep for `TX` to see the Texan senators vote on aid to New York for Hurricane Sandy relief https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1131/vote_113_1_00004.htm https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1...
        4y ago
- smt88 4y ago
  > Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help. The people who (you assume) don't use the term "flyover country" are the people stopping Congress from spending money to fix environmental crises like drought. Even so, the White House has ordered studies and gotten Congress to spend a lot of money on the Southwest already[1]. What else are you looking for, exactly? My understanding is that the current crisis is mostly due to agriculture and water rights, and I don't know how they could legally legislate agriculture in a state. That is the responsibility of the state's own government. 1. https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/06/01/biden-harris-administration-drought-resilience-interagency-working https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/06/01/biden-h...
  - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
    The bureau of reclamation started building dams and irrigation systems in the 1940s. They enabled current patterns of agriculture. They could disable them too,
  - bagels 4y ago
    Desalinization plants built by California or the Federal Government.
    - dreamcompiler 4y ago
      Desal can work for residential use in cities. But desal for agriculture is supplied by mother nature and it's called "rain." Replacing agricultural rain with man-made desal would require a 10x-1000x scaleup in cost and energy and area over the desal plants now feasible. In most cases it would probably be cheaper to move the farms to rainier areas.
    - smt88 4y ago
      I still don't think I understand how that helps Midwestern and Southwestern states other than California, unless you mean the goal is to give California a way to stop using as much.
- astrange 4y ago
  Isn't flyover country Kansas, not Arizona?
  - vkou 4y ago
    Correct. And most of the time, the federal government is controlled by the politics of flyover country. It has the Supreme Court, has a pretty solid grip on the senate, wins about half of the presidencies, and is looking to sweep the upcoming election. It's go-to solution for dealing with climate change is pretending it doesn't exist (and punishing state employees who say otherwise), and with freak weather events by blaming renewable energy, so I can only expect that things in that region can only get worse, before they can get better.
  - formerkrogemp 4y ago
    Not in the future it won't be.
- bogomipz 4y ago
  I've seen the pictures of the "bathtub" lines on Lake Meade and agree it looks scary however I keep seeing conflicting reports of how imminent the dead pool threat is. Here's an example I came across a few weeks ago. I don't know what the politics of this newspaper are but the person speaking is public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. It's hard for me to reconcile the math provided with this individuals rather sanguine statement. >"Lake Mead would reach dead pool if the water level dropped to 895 feet, said Patti Aaron, public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. As of Wednesday, the level of Lake Mead is 1,049.65 feet, she said." >“We’re not in danger of hitting dead pool,” Aaron said. “It’s not an imminent problem. It’s not something that’s going to happen tomorrow, and it’s something we don’t think is going to happen at all. We would take every action to not have that happen.”[1] Perhaps this is also politics? There doesn't seem to be a lot of slack in that system and it almost seems like this person is doing a disservice with that statement. https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/may/26/understanding-dead-pool-and-how-water-officials-ar/ https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/may/26/understanding-dead-...
  - ianai 4y ago
    I think this is the raw data https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/lakemead_line.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/lakemead_line.pdf Edit-I know far too little to extrapolate from that. It looks like this time of year and into the fall is when the water recedes due to agricultural use. It’ll be interesting to see the elevation at that lowest point.
- jiggyjace 4y ago
  I don't know what news you're plugged in to but I'm not worried at all living in the SW US. Phoenix and Tucson had by far their wettest rainy season in decades last year and are projected to have another wet season this year. And the state of AZ uses less water for 10x the population than it did in the 1950s.
  - oasisbob 4y ago
    It doesn't matter if historical per-capita water usage is down if the lower basin states are continuing to overdraw their water allocations from the Colorado river system. If and when the Colorado River Compact implodes, it's going to be immensely painful to all the states -- but especially Arizona, which doesn't have the same senior rights as other states under prior appropriation.
  - grogenaut 4y ago
    Knowing nothing about Phoenix or Tuscon water management... are there reservoirs for Phoenix or Tuscon that stored this rainfall coming off the local mountains from your wet rainy season? It's hard to untangle where the water comes from, but if not, I'm not sure how it helps.
sen 4y ago
It’s been intense here (SE Australia). It’s just been raining for weeks now without stopping. I think we’ve had 2 sunny days in the last 4 weeks? Crops are dying, lettuce costs $10 each (if you can find them), internet keeps dropping out cos of shittily buried lines, drains overflow and flood the streets constantly, and the kids are going up the walls. I know it’s normal for lots of areas of the world (and I’ve lived in those places) but we’re generally not equipped for it here.
- steve_adams_86 4y ago
  I follow an Australian hydroponic gardener and general tinkerer on YouTube named Hoocho and he has documented a bit of the mess the weather has caused lately. It’s extremely disheartening. One thing he noticed is that the water has pushed ants to find new places to live (including his growing enclosure, where they’ve made a home in his electrical box), and they’ve brought aphids to farm along with them. Obviously this along with extremely wet weather is terrible for his crops. He has mentioned the $10 lettuce (initially $4, then $6, then…) and somehow it seemed so unlikely still, like there must be somewhere you can still buy normally priced lettuce. But I guess not. It’s wild how quickly food supplies can get gutted by climate fluctuations. Suffice to say, I’ve begun hydro gardening for fast turn around essentials with the idea that in a time of crisis, perhaps I can avoid buying $10 lettuce. Thanks Hoocho, you’ve made my 3D printer far more useful and made hydroponics way more fun.
  - ggm 4y ago
    The supply chain logistics which let asparagus importers get stock from Peru in the off season are the same ones which means they can't just ring up on a whim and ask for some more, in the "on" season. Australian Quarantine and Customs Inspection service is pretty strong on vegitative matter, especially live vegitative matter: You need a LOT of paperwork, to be able to bring fresh produce into Australia. And this local supply disaster noted, we kinda like it that way.
    - Andaith 4y ago
      What's wild to me is that apparently there's only one place on this continent that grows lettuce. It seems like a bit of an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket thing to have one valley in QLD(I think) that does lettuce for the nation, and they have some bad weather and suddenly we're all sans-lettuce.
acwan93 4y ago
Anyone here know if the thunderstorm events in SoCal earlier this week is a result of this?
- ryantgtg 4y ago
  No, we have entered monsoon season in SoCal. We get a couple monsoons like that in the summer months. La Nina results in little rain in this area. We want an El Nino, because it will help the drought. Triple La Nina is bad news.
honkler 4y ago
how many states are going to implode, apart from SriLanka? Any guesses?
- DougMellon 4y ago
  I currently live just outside of Rocky Mountain National Park and I am not feeling optimistic about the future.
  - moneycantbuy 4y ago
    What particularly about Colorado makes you feel not optimistic?
    - DougMellon 4y ago
      Fires
IG_Semmelweiss 4y ago
If you ever wonder what el nino /la nina means in terms of weather for your hemisphere, here is a heuristic: La niña is the opposite of el Niño. El niño (spanish - "the boy") is the name used by inhabitants of the area it hits the hardest, South America (mostly spanish speaking). The western part of South America has its usual rainy season from late Dec to April. The "el nino" boy is a reference to birth of Jesus. Chrstianity is the predominant faith in most of south america, so christmas is celebrated by all. Fishermen would thus say Jesus' birth brought extra "gifts" in the form of a stronger and longer rainy season, starting from late Dec. So the the Spanish baby jesus boy brings brings miracle heat and rain upon his birth. Invert the weather for la nina. Now you you know what it means to you if you live in an affected area. Edit - took out wrong statement about northern hemisphere
- paranoidrobot 4y ago
  It's not really just northern/southern hemisphere. It's also linked to location. Australia gets the opposite weather to South America for the cycle. So for La Nina, it's dry in South America, but wet here in Australia.
  - igitur 4y ago
    In South Africa La Niña is also associated with a wetter season and El Niño with a dryer season.
    - dendrite9 4y ago
      Didn't that work out in the last 2 cycles of La Niña? I read about drought in South Africa recently but I admittedly know nothing about weather patterns there.
      - igitur 4y ago
        Depends on which part of South Africa you're referring to. Cape Town (Western Cape) had a much publicised drought 2015-2018 [1], but that's been broken. This drought was partial attributed to El Niño. At the moment dams in the Eastern Cape are empty [2]. My mother's taps in Gqeberha are on a trickle only. No idea whether (El|La) Niñ[ao] is responsible here, but maladministration of available water has also been mentioned. In summary, in ZA we look forward to La Niña, so this article is good news for us. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis 2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/19/south-africa-water-day-zero/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/19/south-africa...
swayvil 4y ago
Southern IL here Present spring is looking to be both the coldest and hottest in recent memory. Really obnoxious. For a couple weeks we got crazy powerful winds. Thrashed everything. Right now we are in a drought.
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  We just had one of the wettest, coolest springs in a long time here in the PNW - really haven't had a spring like this since 2011. And then right on cue the summer switch was turned on a couple of days ago and we're expecting to be in the 90s for a few days (up to 98 on Sunday). It's kind of jarring to go from ~60F cloudy&wet just about every day for the last couple of months to 90s over the course of just a few days.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
    Here in the high desert of northern NM, we've just been through the opposite. After a month of highs in the 90s, the last week has seen daily highs in the 60s, and finally some rain. It is weird but we're delighted.
  - formerkrogemp 4y ago
    Meh, that kind of weather change is normal for the inland American southeast. We had a temperature change a few years back in excess of 40 degrees in 18 hours.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Thunderstorms recently have been much more powerful as well, yeah?
XorNot 4y ago
From about December through to March it felt like it pretty much rained constantly in Sydney, and when it wasn't raining it was grey. You got a few gaps somewhere in there I presume, but I don't really remember having summer. I definitely remember discovering the shoddy shortcuts taken in my roof and how un-waterproof they are.
yosito 4y ago
> A ‘triple dip’ La Niña — lasting three years in a row — has happened only twice since 1950. Doesn't seem all that rare, then.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- aaron695 4y ago
- smt88 4y ago
  2-3 times in a lifetime is rare by some reasonable definition
  - lrhegeba 4y ago
    2 x 3 years would be 6 years. 1950 to 2022 are 72 years. So 6 years of 72 years would be 8,3 percent. YMMV if this can be considered rare
    - bruce343434 4y ago
      The "event" is that it takes/repeats 3 years in a row. So 2 in 72.
      - nlitened 4y ago
        2 in 24 three-year slots, so 8.3% again
        bruce343434 4y ago
        Why would you count in 3 year slots? You're saying that it could happen on 1950, but not 1951, and not 1952, but again on 1953? What if there was La Niña on 1952, 1953 and 1954? Your method does not account for that. Natural events and climate do not adhere to someone's made up "mod 3" date statistics.
sydthrowaway 4y ago
The climate is completely fucked, no bones about it
pram 4y ago
The situation in Lake Mead is horrific. I’ve been watching a YouTuber that has been filming various locations around the basin for the past couple months. It’s one thing to hear “the lake is doomed” and another to see it disappearing as the days go by: https://youtu.be/NCBG_aVkv4s https://youtu.be/NCBG_aVkv4s
- narrator 4y ago
  Oddly, California officials are trying to decide right now whether to save Lake Mead or the Salton Sea. One is a stinky polluted accidental lake and the other is the primary water source for Las Vegas. What the heck? "He said the district will again seek binding guarantees from the federal and state government to help with the fast-drying Salton Sea before agreeing to reductions to preserve Lake Mead." https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/sophies-choice-water-officials-warn-234525065.html https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/sophies-choice-water-off...
  - tru3_power 4y ago
    Isn’t the concern that if the salton sea dries up all the toxic waste will start blowing around everywhere?
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    I don’t think anyone wants Biblical dust storms.
  - lovich 4y ago
    I think the government views the stinky polluted lake as more of a shield over the pollution that is keeping it from being flung everywhere in the next dust bowl. We learned as a result of the dust bowl that many aspects of the environment that we thought were useless were actually providing a stabilizing affect on the local environment. This is how we got infrastructure projects like the great shelterbelt[1]. Given this historical context the situation looks like the inverse to me. Like how the hell can the government prioritize keeping an artificial oasis supplied with enough water for a city in the middle of the desert vs prioritizing keeping a man made disaster caused by our ancestors from affecting large swathes of the country? [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plains_Shelterbelt https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plains_Shelterbelt
barrenko 4y ago
We are leaving zilch to children.
superkuh 4y ago
I can't help but wonder if the the southern hemisphere Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga_Ha%27apai_eruption_and_tsunami https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga...) contributed a little to the nothern hemisphere weirdness like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatubo#Global_environmental_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatub...
- lamontcg 4y ago
  Pinatubo threw 37 times more SO2 into the atmosphere.
JetAlone 4y ago
There's unexpected solar winds https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31851572 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31851572, and a rare triple La Nina, in a similar time frame. Does anyone with more knowledge on meteorology and the sun's effects on it than me have some reasoning and/or evidence on if these two events are connected or not?
DoreenMichele 4y ago
The most important point: Some researchers argue that the record is simply too sparse to show clearly what is going on, or that there is too much natural variability in the system for researchers to spot long-term trends. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big. In spite of all the hand-wringing about Global Warming -- which should more accurately be called climate change -- we don't know as much as we so often seem to think we do. The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine and errors in assumptions for models are not uncommon.
- chimprich 4y ago
  > The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine How far do you imagine they go back?
  - DoreenMichele 4y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488
    - chimprich 4y ago
      How far do you think "most people imagine" they go back? I suspect most people actually underestimate how much historical climate knowledge we have. E.g. ice cores providing knowledge from hundreds of thousands years.
stareatgoats 4y ago
Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels. But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. We know we are in a period of relative high flux (compared to previous centuries), but we don't know what comes after the immediate future. People may draw different conclusions from this, mine is that we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to. We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios. For example, whatever scenario that wins out will likely create massive migration pressures. How do we deal with that, humanely?
- lm28469 4y ago
  > We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios. It's much easier to tell people to buy a Tesla than to tell them their children/descendants will have a much worse time on this planet. There are many things we could do to adapt and curve the issue, but it looks like we're going to suck every last bit of resource of this planet until it kills us.
- ASalazarMX 4y ago
  It's not reverting to a natural climate, it's trying to not make it worse by pumping even more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The adaptation we have to make is finding a way to keep most of our comforts in a sustainable way, and that won't come from recycling plastic or driving an EV, but from industry and regulation.
  - stareatgoats 4y ago
    > from industry and regulation I agree. These tools should make our crash landing softer than a laissez faire policy. But 1. I'm pessimistic about the true intent of the powers that be. While paying lip service to climate action there is hardly any real action: renewables are just an extra energy source on top of the existing cheap fossil fuels that give nations some independence vs the gulf states. There is a scramble for every newly discovered oilfield - and it's not because they want to prevent the extraction. And 2. If governments succeed against all odds in phasing out fossil fuels we would still be faced with massive climate change sooner or later - be it a new ice age or whatever. These are things that are out of our control - we need to make sure we can adapt, not try to control it.
vdo 4y ago
In Anchorage, Alaska we’ve had less than an inch of rain in the last 41 days. We had a 13-acre wildfire in a park in town yesterday that they estimate they can’t fully extinguish for a few days. Statewide, over one million acres have burned so far this season. It is crazy dry and hot.
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  Your state is just catching up to California, Utah, Oregon, and others. Less rain, no controlled burns, insufficient resources for land management (clearing brush, etc.), Higher temperatures, and now you have a recipe for disaster. I'm sorry for your loss.
BryanA 4y ago
I wonder if this could have been influenced by the Honga Tonga volcano eruption?

184 points by paulbaumgart 4y ago

s09dfhks 4y ago
Can you show me the line in the article that mentions the auto industry

First picture in the article show a scene from Brisbane, where I live. And there are a lot of these suburbs. Brisbane is built on a flood-plain. But the house prices in the low-lying suburbs that were hit hardest are still very strong. And my home insurance has gone up by 30%.

jamal-kumar 4y ago
I'm actually pretty amazed that it seems to go from east to west as well, I always thought that the weather system was strictly an American thing that went from south to north.
aaron695 4y ago

ianai 4y ago

Really starting to feel dangerous to live anywhere in the US southwest. Lake Meade approaching deadpool and massive wildfire nearing my house this summer. Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help.

kurthr 4y ago
I thought the 9 most terrifying words were, "I'm from the government and I’m here to help"? What do you expect the Feds to do about the weather?
- losteric 4y ago
  > What do you expect the Feds to do about the weather? Intervene and rebalance the water markets, which are currently unsustainable based on bad decades-old science.
  - enraged_camel 4y ago
    Water markets are broken primarily because of water rights, some of which were allocated centuries ago via local and regional contracts. They are nearly impossible to untangle, and state governments are required by law to honor them.
    - WoahNoun 4y ago
      Congress can use eminent domain to untangle them.
      - bogomipz 4y ago
        Can you walk me through how the Federal Government could use eminent domain to untangle the water rights? What exactly is the Government going to expropriate as part of eminent domain? There are seven states that depend on the water from the Colorado River.
        lovich 4y ago
        > Can you walk me through how the Federal Government could use eminent domain to untangle the water rights? Eminent domaining the water? The federal government at the highest level(SCOTUS) have no problem using eminent domain for things as frivolous as an unfinanced mall with no strings attached for the _private_ developer. They certainly wouldn't pause to eminent domain this if they cared. Unfortunately these are regions of the country that are populated by large groups of people who continually elect local politicians who will blame any convenient boogeyman on their problems. Look at this in 2021 their AG sued the Biden government over not doing enough to stop pollution causing climate change because his administration didn’t crack down on _immigrants_[1]. What exactly is political leadership supposed to do here? Kowtow to the demands that will cost money and absolutely not solve the problem? Or ignore it until the people living with the issue decide to accept that it’s real rather than blaming whatever let’s them continue their lifestyle without any change? [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-climate-lawsuit_n_60897a42e4b0b9042d8d6ae5/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-...
jonny_eh 4y ago
Maybe the Southwest should elect representatives that believe in climate change.
- bikingbismuth 4y ago
  Man, we are trying.
- jdminhbg 4y ago
  All eight Senators from CA, AZ, NV, and NM are Democrats, and I assume they "believe in climate change," although I'm not sure whether simply believing is going to make much of a difference.
  - WoahNoun 4y ago
    Senators don't make local policy.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
      that was a reply to the suggestion that "maybe" the area should elect senators who believe in climate change. we already have. it wasn't a suggestion that this is actually the answer.
      - erikpukinskis 4y ago
        They said representatives not senators. There are state senators who are the relevant representatives here not federal ones.
        PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
        CA and NM both have Democratic "trifectas", and it can reasonably be assumed that they are dominated by anthropogenic climate change believers. However, I would dispute your claim. The majority of the land (and thus resources) in the SW is under federal, not state control. Ergo, federal representatives play an outsize role in deciding questions central to the SW role in and sufferer of climate change.
tjr225 4y ago
If you live near the wilderness urban interface expect this. Spreading out into mountain/desert suburbs causes issues that you would've never noticed before because well... millions and millions of people never lived there before. This especially applies to any sort of libertarian psycho who wants to live in the middle of nowhere with minimal govt and then when nature shtf they bitch about the govt.
chipotle_coyote 4y ago
[flagged]
- pram 4y ago
  I have heard it used unironically. People in NYC and SF NEVER have anything but noble and well intentioned thoughts and comments about places like Texas? lol what an absolute load of shit
  - chipotle_coyote 4y ago
    You know, I was going to let this go, or just post a snarky "totally not what I said, but you do you, ace," but no. What you did was take what I said, rephrase it to something that I absolutely did not say, and then attack your own rephrasing. You're right. That is an absolute load of shit.
    - pram 4y ago
      “virtually always” and “have never encountered evidence” uh huh
      - lovich 4y ago
        Was he supposed to prove that this is true in every situation for all time or were we talking about general trends? Also New York at least sends aid to Texas in their time of need[1] unlike in the reverse when Texan senators make sure no aid goes to New York in the event of a natural disaster[2]. Actions speak louder than words and I don't see New York as a state treating Texas as a state to abandon while Texas is advocating for anything against NY. [1]https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/21/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-texas-relief/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/21/politics/alexandria-ocasio-co... [2] Grep for `TX` to see the Texan senators vote on aid to New York for Hurricane Sandy relief https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1131/vote_113_1_00004.htm https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1...
        4y ago
smt88 4y ago
> Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help. The people who (you assume) don't use the term "flyover country" are the people stopping Congress from spending money to fix environmental crises like drought. Even so, the White House has ordered studies and gotten Congress to spend a lot of money on the Southwest already[1]. What else are you looking for, exactly? My understanding is that the current crisis is mostly due to agriculture and water rights, and I don't know how they could legally legislate agriculture in a state. That is the responsibility of the state's own government. 1. https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/06/01/biden-harris-administration-drought-resilience-interagency-working https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/06/01/biden-h...
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  The bureau of reclamation started building dams and irrigation systems in the 1940s. They enabled current patterns of agriculture. They could disable them too,
- bagels 4y ago
  Desalinization plants built by California or the Federal Government.
  - dreamcompiler 4y ago
    Desal can work for residential use in cities. But desal for agriculture is supplied by mother nature and it's called "rain." Replacing agricultural rain with man-made desal would require a 10x-1000x scaleup in cost and energy and area over the desal plants now feasible. In most cases it would probably be cheaper to move the farms to rainier areas.
  - smt88 4y ago
    I still don't think I understand how that helps Midwestern and Southwestern states other than California, unless you mean the goal is to give California a way to stop using as much.
astrange 4y ago
Isn't flyover country Kansas, not Arizona?
- vkou 4y ago
  Correct. And most of the time, the federal government is controlled by the politics of flyover country. It has the Supreme Court, has a pretty solid grip on the senate, wins about half of the presidencies, and is looking to sweep the upcoming election. It's go-to solution for dealing with climate change is pretending it doesn't exist (and punishing state employees who say otherwise), and with freak weather events by blaming renewable energy, so I can only expect that things in that region can only get worse, before they can get better.
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  Not in the future it won't be.
bogomipz 4y ago
I've seen the pictures of the "bathtub" lines on Lake Meade and agree it looks scary however I keep seeing conflicting reports of how imminent the dead pool threat is. Here's an example I came across a few weeks ago. I don't know what the politics of this newspaper are but the person speaking is public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. It's hard for me to reconcile the math provided with this individuals rather sanguine statement. >"Lake Mead would reach dead pool if the water level dropped to 895 feet, said Patti Aaron, public affairs officer for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Lower Colorado Basin Region. As of Wednesday, the level of Lake Mead is 1,049.65 feet, she said." >“We’re not in danger of hitting dead pool,” Aaron said. “It’s not an imminent problem. It’s not something that’s going to happen tomorrow, and it’s something we don’t think is going to happen at all. We would take every action to not have that happen.”[1] Perhaps this is also politics? There doesn't seem to be a lot of slack in that system and it almost seems like this person is doing a disservice with that statement. https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/may/26/understanding-dead-pool-and-how-water-officials-ar/ https://lasvegassun.com/news/2022/may/26/understanding-dead-...
- ianai 4y ago
  I think this is the raw data https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/lakemead_line.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/lakemead_line.pdf Edit-I know far too little to extrapolate from that. It looks like this time of year and into the fall is when the water recedes due to agricultural use. It’ll be interesting to see the elevation at that lowest point.
jiggyjace 4y ago
I don't know what news you're plugged in to but I'm not worried at all living in the SW US. Phoenix and Tucson had by far their wettest rainy season in decades last year and are projected to have another wet season this year. And the state of AZ uses less water for 10x the population than it did in the 1950s.
- oasisbob 4y ago
  It doesn't matter if historical per-capita water usage is down if the lower basin states are continuing to overdraw their water allocations from the Colorado river system. If and when the Colorado River Compact implodes, it's going to be immensely painful to all the states -- but especially Arizona, which doesn't have the same senior rights as other states under prior appropriation.
- grogenaut 4y ago
  Knowing nothing about Phoenix or Tuscon water management... are there reservoirs for Phoenix or Tuscon that stored this rainfall coming off the local mountains from your wet rainy season? It's hard to untangle where the water comes from, but if not, I'm not sure how it helps.

sen 4y ago

It’s been intense here (SE Australia). It’s just been raining for weeks now without stopping. I think we’ve had 2 sunny days in the last 4 weeks? Crops are dying, lettuce costs $10 each (if you can find them), internet keeps dropping out cos of shittily buried lines, drains overflow and flood the streets constantly, and the kids are going up the walls. I know it’s normal for lots of areas of the world (and I’ve lived in those places) but we’re generally not equipped for it here.

steve_adams_86 4y ago
I follow an Australian hydroponic gardener and general tinkerer on YouTube named Hoocho and he has documented a bit of the mess the weather has caused lately. It’s extremely disheartening. One thing he noticed is that the water has pushed ants to find new places to live (including his growing enclosure, where they’ve made a home in his electrical box), and they’ve brought aphids to farm along with them. Obviously this along with extremely wet weather is terrible for his crops. He has mentioned the $10 lettuce (initially $4, then $6, then…) and somehow it seemed so unlikely still, like there must be somewhere you can still buy normally priced lettuce. But I guess not. It’s wild how quickly food supplies can get gutted by climate fluctuations. Suffice to say, I’ve begun hydro gardening for fast turn around essentials with the idea that in a time of crisis, perhaps I can avoid buying $10 lettuce. Thanks Hoocho, you’ve made my 3D printer far more useful and made hydroponics way more fun.
- ggm 4y ago
  The supply chain logistics which let asparagus importers get stock from Peru in the off season are the same ones which means they can't just ring up on a whim and ask for some more, in the "on" season. Australian Quarantine and Customs Inspection service is pretty strong on vegitative matter, especially live vegitative matter: You need a LOT of paperwork, to be able to bring fresh produce into Australia. And this local supply disaster noted, we kinda like it that way.
  - Andaith 4y ago
    What's wild to me is that apparently there's only one place on this continent that grows lettuce. It seems like a bit of an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket thing to have one valley in QLD(I think) that does lettuce for the nation, and they have some bad weather and suddenly we're all sans-lettuce.

acwan93 4y ago

Anyone here know if the thunderstorm events in SoCal earlier this week is a result of this?

ryantgtg 4y ago
No, we have entered monsoon season in SoCal. We get a couple monsoons like that in the summer months. La Nina results in little rain in this area. We want an El Nino, because it will help the drought. Triple La Nina is bad news.

honkler 4y ago

how many states are going to implode, apart from SriLanka? Any guesses?

DougMellon 4y ago
I currently live just outside of Rocky Mountain National Park and I am not feeling optimistic about the future.
- moneycantbuy 4y ago
  What particularly about Colorado makes you feel not optimistic?
  - DougMellon 4y ago
    Fires

IG_Semmelweiss 4y ago

If you ever wonder what el nino /la nina means in terms of weather for your hemisphere, here is a heuristic: La niña is the opposite of el Niño. El niño (spanish - "the boy") is the name used by inhabitants of the area it hits the hardest, South America (mostly spanish speaking). The western part of South America has its usual rainy season from late Dec to April. The "el nino" boy is a reference to birth of Jesus. Chrstianity is the predominant faith in most of south america, so christmas is celebrated by all. Fishermen would thus say Jesus' birth brought extra "gifts" in the form of a stronger and longer rainy season, starting from late Dec. So the the Spanish baby jesus boy brings brings miracle heat and rain upon his birth. Invert the weather for la nina. Now you you know what it means to you if you live in an affected area. Edit - took out wrong statement about northern hemisphere

paranoidrobot 4y ago
It's not really just northern/southern hemisphere. It's also linked to location. Australia gets the opposite weather to South America for the cycle. So for La Nina, it's dry in South America, but wet here in Australia.
- igitur 4y ago
  In South Africa La Niña is also associated with a wetter season and El Niño with a dryer season.
  - dendrite9 4y ago
    Didn't that work out in the last 2 cycles of La Niña? I read about drought in South Africa recently but I admittedly know nothing about weather patterns there.
    - igitur 4y ago
      Depends on which part of South Africa you're referring to. Cape Town (Western Cape) had a much publicised drought 2015-2018 [1], but that's been broken. This drought was partial attributed to El Niño. At the moment dams in the Eastern Cape are empty [2]. My mother's taps in Gqeberha are on a trickle only. No idea whether (El|La) Niñ[ao] is responsible here, but maladministration of available water has also been mentioned. In summary, in ZA we look forward to La Niña, so this article is good news for us. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis 2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/19/south-africa-water-day-zero/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/19/south-africa...

swayvil 4y ago

Southern IL here Present spring is looking to be both the coldest and hottest in recent memory. Really obnoxious. For a couple weeks we got crazy powerful winds. Thrashed everything. Right now we are in a drought.

UncleOxidant 4y ago
We just had one of the wettest, coolest springs in a long time here in the PNW - really haven't had a spring like this since 2011. And then right on cue the summer switch was turned on a couple of days ago and we're expecting to be in the 90s for a few days (up to 98 on Sunday). It's kind of jarring to go from ~60F cloudy&wet just about every day for the last couple of months to 90s over the course of just a few days.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  Here in the high desert of northern NM, we've just been through the opposite. After a month of highs in the 90s, the last week has seen daily highs in the 60s, and finally some rain. It is weird but we're delighted.
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  Meh, that kind of weather change is normal for the inland American southeast. We had a temperature change a few years back in excess of 40 degrees in 18 hours.
toomuchtodo 4y ago
Thunderstorms recently have been much more powerful as well, yeah?

XorNot 4y ago

From about December through to March it felt like it pretty much rained constantly in Sydney, and when it wasn't raining it was grey. You got a few gaps somewhere in there I presume, but I don't really remember having summer. I definitely remember discovering the shoddy shortcuts taken in my roof and how un-waterproof they are.

yosito 4y ago

> A ‘triple dip’ La Niña — lasting three years in a row — has happened only twice since 1950. Doesn't seem all that rare, then.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
aaron695 4y ago
smt88 4y ago
2-3 times in a lifetime is rare by some reasonable definition
- lrhegeba 4y ago
  2 x 3 years would be 6 years. 1950 to 2022 are 72 years. So 6 years of 72 years would be 8,3 percent. YMMV if this can be considered rare
  - bruce343434 4y ago
    The "event" is that it takes/repeats 3 years in a row. So 2 in 72.
    - nlitened 4y ago
      2 in 24 three-year slots, so 8.3% again
      - bruce343434 4y ago
        Why would you count in 3 year slots? You're saying that it could happen on 1950, but not 1951, and not 1952, but again on 1953? What if there was La Niña on 1952, 1953 and 1954? Your method does not account for that. Natural events and climate do not adhere to someone's made up "mod 3" date statistics.

sydthrowaway 4y ago

The climate is completely fucked, no bones about it

pram 4y ago

The situation in Lake Mead is horrific. I’ve been watching a YouTuber that has been filming various locations around the basin for the past couple months. It’s one thing to hear “the lake is doomed” and another to see it disappearing as the days go by: https://youtu.be/NCBG_aVkv4s https://youtu.be/NCBG_aVkv4s

narrator 4y ago
Oddly, California officials are trying to decide right now whether to save Lake Mead or the Salton Sea. One is a stinky polluted accidental lake and the other is the primary water source for Las Vegas. What the heck? "He said the district will again seek binding guarantees from the federal and state government to help with the fast-drying Salton Sea before agreeing to reductions to preserve Lake Mead." https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/sophies-choice-water-officials-warn-234525065.html https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/sophies-choice-water-off...
- tru3_power 4y ago
  Isn’t the concern that if the salton sea dries up all the toxic waste will start blowing around everywhere?
- selimthegrim 4y ago
  I don’t think anyone wants Biblical dust storms.
- lovich 4y ago
  I think the government views the stinky polluted lake as more of a shield over the pollution that is keeping it from being flung everywhere in the next dust bowl. We learned as a result of the dust bowl that many aspects of the environment that we thought were useless were actually providing a stabilizing affect on the local environment. This is how we got infrastructure projects like the great shelterbelt[1]. Given this historical context the situation looks like the inverse to me. Like how the hell can the government prioritize keeping an artificial oasis supplied with enough water for a city in the middle of the desert vs prioritizing keeping a man made disaster caused by our ancestors from affecting large swathes of the country? [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plains_Shelterbelt https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plains_Shelterbelt

barrenko 4y ago

We are leaving zilch to children.

superkuh 4y ago

I can't help but wonder if the the southern hemisphere Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga_Ha%27apai_eruption_and_tsunami https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga...) contributed a little to the nothern hemisphere weirdness like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatubo#Global_environmental_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatub...

lamontcg 4y ago
Pinatubo threw 37 times more SO2 into the atmosphere.

JetAlone 4y ago

There's unexpected solar winds https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31851572 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31851572, and a rare triple La Nina, in a similar time frame. Does anyone with more knowledge on meteorology and the sun's effects on it than me have some reasoning and/or evidence on if these two events are connected or not?

DoreenMichele 4y ago

The most important point: Some researchers argue that the record is simply too sparse to show clearly what is going on, or that there is too much natural variability in the system for researchers to spot long-term trends. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big. In spite of all the hand-wringing about Global Warming -- which should more accurately be called climate change -- we don't know as much as we so often seem to think we do. The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine and errors in assumptions for models are not uncommon.

chimprich 4y ago
> The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine How far do you imagine they go back?
- DoreenMichele 4y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488
  - chimprich 4y ago
    How far do you think "most people imagine" they go back? I suspect most people actually underestimate how much historical climate knowledge we have. E.g. ice cores providing knowledge from hundreds of thousands years.

stareatgoats 4y ago

Climate science is in its infancy. No I'm not a "climate denier": we can can be reasonably confident that the science is correct in asserting that we are in a period of climate warming, caused in large part by increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, to the most part caused by the accelerated burning of fossile fuels. But the predictive powers of climate science is low, which this article (among others) illustrates. We know we are in a period of relative high flux (compared to previous centuries), but we don't know what comes after the immediate future. People may draw different conclusions from this, mine is that we need to get away from the thinking that there is a "natural climate" that we can revert to. We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios. For example, whatever scenario that wins out will likely create massive migration pressures. How do we deal with that, humanely?

lm28469 4y ago
> We need to stop the focus on how we can influence the changing climate and start thinking about how we can adapt to various scenarios. It's much easier to tell people to buy a Tesla than to tell them their children/descendants will have a much worse time on this planet. There are many things we could do to adapt and curve the issue, but it looks like we're going to suck every last bit of resource of this planet until it kills us.
ASalazarMX 4y ago
It's not reverting to a natural climate, it's trying to not make it worse by pumping even more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The adaptation we have to make is finding a way to keep most of our comforts in a sustainable way, and that won't come from recycling plastic or driving an EV, but from industry and regulation.
- stareatgoats 4y ago
  > from industry and regulation I agree. These tools should make our crash landing softer than a laissez faire policy. But 1. I'm pessimistic about the true intent of the powers that be. While paying lip service to climate action there is hardly any real action: renewables are just an extra energy source on top of the existing cheap fossil fuels that give nations some independence vs the gulf states. There is a scramble for every newly discovered oilfield - and it's not because they want to prevent the extraction. And 2. If governments succeed against all odds in phasing out fossil fuels we would still be faced with massive climate change sooner or later - be it a new ice age or whatever. These are things that are out of our control - we need to make sure we can adapt, not try to control it.

vdo 4y ago

In Anchorage, Alaska we’ve had less than an inch of rain in the last 41 days. We had a 13-acre wildfire in a park in town yesterday that they estimate they can’t fully extinguish for a few days. Statewide, over one million acres have burned so far this season. It is crazy dry and hot.

formerkrogemp 4y ago
Your state is just catching up to California, Utah, Oregon, and others. Less rain, no controlled burns, insufficient resources for land management (clearing brush, etc.), Higher temperatures, and now you have a recipe for disaster. I'm sorry for your loss.

BryanA 4y ago

I wonder if this could have been influenced by the Honga Tonga volcano eruption?