5 ms·

You can’t argue with demographics, so you wouldn’t have argued with Malthus? He was completely wrong, at the very least in timescale.

harpersealtako 4y ago
You can't argue with demographics because, outside of immigration, it is physically impossible to change them in the short term. Even if e.g. Korea somehow managed to get a fertility rate of 10 tomorrow, it would takes many decades for that generation to begin to contribute to the economy as a class of high-skilled laborers. No matter what Korea does, absent implausible levels of immigration, they are still set for future economic hardship due to their demographics.
- anonporridge 4y ago
  To me, this is one of America's superpowers. America is quite unique in the world by being so significantly multicultural, and increasingly so. It can tune and balance its demographics with immigration. It is especially good at attracting the best and brightest from around the world, because there is a realistic, and well trodden path, of not only fully integrating yourself and your children into American society, but also integrating into the ruling/upper class. For example, any Chinese citizen can effectively defect and build a safe and sustainable life in America. Millions have already done it. First generation immigrants lead some of America's most powerful corporations. Second generation immigrants are welcome as officials in the government. The current VP is second generation immigrant of Indian/Jamaican descent. On the other hand, an American can never effectively defect to China. Maybe if you are ethnically Chinese, your children could be accepted, but not likely anyone else. China simply doesn't have a culture of fully integrating people of all kinds into it's society. The funnel of exceptional humans is one way, and it's into America.
  - xeromal 4y ago
    Love this and I'm sure a few will start poking into this comment, but I appreciate you saying this. There's a comedian, I think Bill Burr, that says one of the great things about US sports is our incredible diversity. Look at any of our Olympic teams and you'll see all kinds of ethnicities in our teams, whoever is the best. On the other hand, I doubt you'll see the same on the chinese Olympic team. Obviously, there are other countries that do the same as us, but we do it on a pretty big scale and I think our success in medals is often in being comfortable with this. Heck, there are a few athletes that have the option of competing for us or their native land and they choose to go back to their country for that. Naomi Osaka comes to mind. She has lived in the US since she was 3 years old yet chose to play for Japan.
  - Agamus 4y ago
    Thank you for posting this! I imagine some people reading it may have not considered it before. Does this idea also extend to ethnicity? This is far from the original topic, but if I emigrate to my wife's home country, I don't think I can ever say I am ethnically "Danish", (or can I?) but she has been "ethnically" American since the day they gave her an ID. Or perhaps there is no "American" ethnicity? I would love someone to educate me on this topic. Perhaps "American" ethnicity is represented in those who move here to be a participate in 'American values'?
    - floxy 4y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_civil_religion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_civil_religion
  - danenania 4y ago
    Well said. Growing up in the US, this is something I completely took for granted. Living in a couple other countries made me realize how special and unique it is.
    - mb_72 4y ago
      Australia (my home country) is another that comes to mind in terms of multiculturalism, and I also took it for granted before I spent time in a very different country (Estonia).
  - bergenty 4y ago
    America is a masterpiece.
antisthenes 4y ago
Malthus only has to be right once and the timeline is completely irrelevant.
- more_corn 4y ago
  Timelines are actually super relevant. Predicting when something will happen is sometimes more important than predicting that it will happen.
- notahacker 4y ago
  Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check Isn't that also a problem with the "refutations" of him? They're also based on history, just slightly more recent history. It's quite possible that future "advances in food production" will eventually fail to keep up with (perhaps slower) population growth, or future changes (climate change, reductions in fossil fuels, etc.) will undo some of the previous "advances in food production" required to sustain our current population.
    - antisthenes 4y ago
      Bingo. You hit the nail on the head. Most people who say Malthus is wrong are refuting a strawman that has nothing to do with the original strong argument.
      - arcturus17 4y ago
boomchinolo78 4y ago
At the end of the day it does not matter much whether he is right or wrong. Our elites have quite the Malthusian outlook and it informs a lot of the decisions we are seeing on a global scale. Why do you think is there such a big push for reducing energy production?
puranjay 4y ago
You can't argue against demographics from a economic and geopolitical viewpoint. To create a young person, you need a fixed number of years. If you want an 18 year old to hit college and take on a $100k loan (or join your army and shoot your enemies), you will have to have started in 2004. There is no way to accelerate this. Even if you poured all your energy and resources into getting people to reproduce more starting today, you won't see an active worker or soldier or college student/scholar until 2040. What happens in the interim 18 years?
- nly 4y ago
  Child labour and pulling people out of retirement comes to mind

harpersealtako 4y ago

You can't argue with demographics because, outside of immigration, it is physically impossible to change them in the short term. Even if e.g. Korea somehow managed to get a fertility rate of 10 tomorrow, it would takes many decades for that generation to begin to contribute to the economy as a class of high-skilled laborers. No matter what Korea does, absent implausible levels of immigration, they are still set for future economic hardship due to their demographics.

anonporridge 4y ago
To me, this is one of America's superpowers. America is quite unique in the world by being so significantly multicultural, and increasingly so. It can tune and balance its demographics with immigration. It is especially good at attracting the best and brightest from around the world, because there is a realistic, and well trodden path, of not only fully integrating yourself and your children into American society, but also integrating into the ruling/upper class. For example, any Chinese citizen can effectively defect and build a safe and sustainable life in America. Millions have already done it. First generation immigrants lead some of America's most powerful corporations. Second generation immigrants are welcome as officials in the government. The current VP is second generation immigrant of Indian/Jamaican descent. On the other hand, an American can never effectively defect to China. Maybe if you are ethnically Chinese, your children could be accepted, but not likely anyone else. China simply doesn't have a culture of fully integrating people of all kinds into it's society. The funnel of exceptional humans is one way, and it's into America.
- xeromal 4y ago
  Love this and I'm sure a few will start poking into this comment, but I appreciate you saying this. There's a comedian, I think Bill Burr, that says one of the great things about US sports is our incredible diversity. Look at any of our Olympic teams and you'll see all kinds of ethnicities in our teams, whoever is the best. On the other hand, I doubt you'll see the same on the chinese Olympic team. Obviously, there are other countries that do the same as us, but we do it on a pretty big scale and I think our success in medals is often in being comfortable with this. Heck, there are a few athletes that have the option of competing for us or their native land and they choose to go back to their country for that. Naomi Osaka comes to mind. She has lived in the US since she was 3 years old yet chose to play for Japan.
- Agamus 4y ago
  Thank you for posting this! I imagine some people reading it may have not considered it before. Does this idea also extend to ethnicity? This is far from the original topic, but if I emigrate to my wife's home country, I don't think I can ever say I am ethnically "Danish", (or can I?) but she has been "ethnically" American since the day they gave her an ID. Or perhaps there is no "American" ethnicity? I would love someone to educate me on this topic. Perhaps "American" ethnicity is represented in those who move here to be a participate in 'American values'?
  - floxy 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_civil_religion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_civil_religion
- danenania 4y ago
  Well said. Growing up in the US, this is something I completely took for granted. Living in a couple other countries made me realize how special and unique it is.
  - mb_72 4y ago
    Australia (my home country) is another that comes to mind in terms of multiculturalism, and I also took it for granted before I spent time in a very different country (Estonia).
- bergenty 4y ago
  America is a masterpiece.

antisthenes 4y ago

Malthus only has to be right once and the timeline is completely irrelevant.

more_corn 4y ago
Timelines are actually super relevant. Predicting when something will happen is sometimes more important than predicting that it will happen.
notahacker 4y ago
Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check Isn't that also a problem with the "refutations" of him? They're also based on history, just slightly more recent history. It's quite possible that future "advances in food production" will eventually fail to keep up with (perhaps slower) population growth, or future changes (climate change, reductions in fossil fuels, etc.) will undo some of the previous "advances in food production" required to sustain our current population.
  - antisthenes 4y ago
    Bingo. You hit the nail on the head. Most people who say Malthus is wrong are refuting a strawman that has nothing to do with the original strong argument.
    - arcturus17 4y ago

boomchinolo78 4y ago

At the end of the day it does not matter much whether he is right or wrong. Our elites have quite the Malthusian outlook and it informs a lot of the decisions we are seeing on a global scale. Why do you think is there such a big push for reducing energy production?

puranjay 4y ago

You can't argue against demographics from a economic and geopolitical viewpoint. To create a young person, you need a fixed number of years. If you want an 18 year old to hit college and take on a $100k loan (or join your army and shoot your enemies), you will have to have started in 2004. There is no way to accelerate this. Even if you poured all your energy and resources into getting people to reproduce more starting today, you won't see an active worker or soldier or college student/scholar until 2040. What happens in the interim 18 years?

nly 4y ago
Child labour and pulling people out of retirement comes to mind