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His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs”

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you have to agree that in the face of declining populations and ageing demographics, we will have to shift to a new economic model where growth isn’t the only goal. And any large scale shift in economic models comes with some grief, at the very least.

colechristensen 4y ago
People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything to worry about unless your worries revolve around earning money from capital.
- lostcolony 4y ago
  "People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.
  - majormajor 4y ago
    But Japan experienced that change already and it wasn't apocalyptic by any means. Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." So change happening without much grief runs right against that. Meanwhile, the US has had any number of highly-adversarial, occasionally-violent political fights in the last decade while still in that "grow the top line" mindset. You could make a plausible argument that those additional few decades of "growth" has a lot to do with the violence and unrest, even, not the other way around. (For instance, see any of a number of takes from all over the political spectrum blaming increasing stratification of elites.) Hell, wasn't Marx predicting internal upheaval and self-defeat of capitalist economies many, many decades ago based on the same sort of demographics/populations/resources economic arguments? Things will change is an easy prediction, they haven't ever been stable. But it's also a meaningless one if you can't convincingly show that it's this decade not "any time between 10 and 200 years from now."
    - lostcolony 4y ago
      >> Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." The only place he mentions grief (rather than "demographic change requires economic change") is at the very end, with "And any large scale shift in economic models comes with some grief, at the very least." Nowhere else. Some grief. As a footnote. That's hardly quantified, and itself could be covered simply by the fact change is hard. Japan was forced into changing, and...it went fine. The US hasn't yet. It'll require adjustment, which will probably bring some unpleasantness as we all adapt. That isn't alarmist, which was my point.
- MR4D 4y ago
  That’s likely to change for the worst for Japan in the next year or two, possibly as soon as this summer. They’re trying to defend their currency and interest rates at the same time. Already the Yen has taken a beating this year. They are at high risk of a huge economic shock. They’ve been able to postpone it, but just like getting out of a bad stock trade, only the first movers can do it, which means others can’t copy the Japanese strategy. Also, there are tons of specifics for Japan, such as education, economic drivers, geography and supply chains that make it unique, so it would be even harder to copy.
- busterarm 4y ago
  There's a distinct cost to that lack of doom. In fact, "lack of doom" depends entirely on where you live in Japan. Most of the country is somewhere on the spectrum of "moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. Smaller cities just seem to be a waypoint on that journey. Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. The average salary is just under 54k USD. People continue to work well into old age and in many ways Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus.
  - diordiderot 4y ago
    > moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) > Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. That's culture and not an economic necessity. They also have a months holiday, maternity leave, and healthcare isn't 20% gdp. The French would say that Americans work a lot for little pay. > People continue to work well into old age Common in the west as well. Many countries have pushed back pension age since 2000. > Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus. Cultures changes over time. Italian culture Italian culture did not include tomato sauces or pizza not to long ago. Hell, Italy wasn't a country! France didn't have a unified language until Napoleon
    - outworlder 4y ago
      > This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) This is missing the point. It's like saying "the entire US population wants to move to Washington DC because that's where the jobs are".
  - mitchdoogle 4y ago
    Interesting take. The majority of Japanese live outside of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Maybe someday that will be untrue, but I don't think it will happen for a long while. The other big cities in Japan are still strong and several of the smaller cities. Some small towns and villages have died or going that way, but plenty are doing OK. But even in those places that are dying, people take great care to preserve and prolong Japanese culture and history. It is perhaps the country most interested in its own history and culture in all the world.
- Longlius 4y ago
  Japan has seen an explosive growth in poverty, especially among young people.
- sleightofmind 4y ago
  Thank you for this observation. Low-growth or no-growth societies have long been fodder for my what-iffing daydreaming.
Aunche 4y ago
>you have to agree that in the face of declining populations and ageing demographics, we will have to shift to a new economic model where growth isn’t the only goal Who exactly is setting growth as the "only goal"? It's really only developing countries and the tech sector. Japan and basically are of Europe is more or less fine with their stagnant GDP.
- more_corn 4y ago
  An economy without growth will fall apart. Yuval Noah Harari said it very well. Lenders only lend because there’s faith that $1 loaned today becomes more than $1 paid back tomorrow. Without growth there’s no incentive to lend. Without lending we’re looking at medieval level economies. It’s not the only thing we care about, but it’s a necessity. That being said growth can come in all shapes and sizes. Elevating everyone out of poverty is growth. Reducing waste increases efficiency, that’s also growth. Growth is not a bad word. It’s absolutely required for positive outcomes. The potential for growth is infinite. What, you might ask, about when everyone is elevated out of poverty and waste is largely eliminated? Truly infinite requires growth even beyond that. We should be so lucky to face that problem. But the answer there is obvious as well. The resources available in the universe are effectively infinite.
  - data_maan 4y ago
    But, sadly, we live on earth and have to make to with the very finite resources we have here.
    - JPKab 4y ago
      Economic growth can occur while simultaneously becoming more efficient with existing resources. See the massive gains in agriculture, for example. An acre of land today can produce vastly more food than an acre could 500 years ago, for example.
      - vkou 4y ago
        And what happens when an acre in year 2XYZ + 500 no longer produces more food than an acre in year 2XYZ?
xt00 4y ago
One major differentiator between the US and China is that China traditionally / currently is not considered a good destination for foreigners / immigrants. (even Chinese people inside China from lower tier cities / countryside struggle to gain residency in top tier cities or get good jobs / benefits). Whereas the US, for all of its flailing around politically, is perceived by many people in many countries as a good place to move. So immigration is a major leverage point the US can / should use to keep the economic engine going. A working age person coming to the US and working hard is basically one of the best case scenarios -- the US tax-base did almost nothing then suddenly you have a new productive person. Contrary to tons of rhetoric, unless you have a failing business, virtually all people at your company will maintain employment if their production is more valuable than what you pay them -- so they end up being a net gain. And last time I checked, not many people come from another country with furniture, a house, a car, etc.. (so they both produce for some company, and consume likely at much higher levels than say boomers who already own virtually everything they need). So, hopefully the US doesn't lose its "mindshare" leadership around being a good destination for immigrants, because in the next 50 years we will see more and more battles for bringing immigrants to your country to make up for the low birth rates.
- quickthrower2 4y ago
  I don’t think the US is easy to emigrate to for extended periods of time. I am put off by being tied to one employer in an at-will employment culture and needing that job to stay resident. Wikipedia says 188,100 new and initial H-1B visas were issued in 2019. So not a lot.
  - avrionov 4y ago
    USA also has the Green Card Lottery which provides 50k visas per year.
    - quickthrower2 4y ago
      Each 100k is 0.03% of the US population. So it is not much.
boomchinolo78 4y ago
The new economic model will be some sort of feudalism, we are starting to see it already.
- JackMorgan 4y ago
  Could you explain this idea further? What's economic feudalism look like?
  - tenebrisalietum 4y ago
    Fiefdom versus fiefdom. You either lead a fief or are serf working for one to survive. If you are a serf, a) your fiefdom may switch ownership due to a defeat in a conflict or political dealings of the nobility; but life never change for you too much and b) you're a serf forever.
BeetleB 4y ago
You didn't address anything in the comment you responded to.
worik 4y ago
It is a tautology that "grow at all costs" is not a sustainable economic order. It has been apparent since at least the 1970s that the limits to the growth phase of industrialisation is looming. It has been blindingly obvious for twenty years that we urgently need to change our economies to not require growth to maintain development. This is not new. It has been shouted from the roof tops for decades. Not shifting economic models will produce much more grief than shifting.
- philwelch 4y ago
  “We should content ourselves with being poorer than our parents were”. Fuck no.
  - marssaxman 4y ago
    Your bravado is charming, but since when is it up to you?
    - philwelch 4y ago
      I always get to choose whether or not to be content.
      - marssaxman 4y ago
        I suppose that makes sense. I must admit that there are aspects of the world I live in which I refuse to feel content about, even though there is nothing I can do about them.
  - momojo 4y ago
    What about "We should be content with not being as wealthy as our parents"?
    - philwelch 4y ago
      That’s just a rephrasing of what I said to make it sound less bad. Also, fuck no.
bamboozled 4y ago
Not sure if you’ve been to Japan within the last twenty years but it’s neither advanced or highly automated. People do everything. Edit Anyone down voting please supply some practical examples of how Japan is advanced and highly automated. Also it wasn't meant as a criticism of Japan, I love the place. I just believe that the stereotype of Japan being in the future isn't accurate or helpful. It's overused.
- bamboozled 4y ago
  ...just as I thought...
pyuser583 4y ago
Japan hasn’t seen any economic growth since the early 2000s? Please give me a source … I find that hard to believe.
- ajmurmann 4y ago
  Random Google: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263578/gross-domestic-product-gdp-of-japan/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263578/gross-domestic-pr...
the_omegist 4y ago
Japan's workers productivity rates are known to be pretty average/bad and about growth, I don't think the issue is the aging population (as you said there is automation) but rather finite resources.

colechristensen 4y ago

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything to worry about unless your worries revolve around earning money from capital.

lostcolony 4y ago
"People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.
- majormajor 4y ago
  But Japan experienced that change already and it wasn't apocalyptic by any means. Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." So change happening without much grief runs right against that. Meanwhile, the US has had any number of highly-adversarial, occasionally-violent political fights in the last decade while still in that "grow the top line" mindset. You could make a plausible argument that those additional few decades of "growth" has a lot to do with the violence and unrest, even, not the other way around. (For instance, see any of a number of takes from all over the political spectrum blaming increasing stratification of elites.) Hell, wasn't Marx predicting internal upheaval and self-defeat of capitalist economies many, many decades ago based on the same sort of demographics/populations/resources economic arguments? Things will change is an easy prediction, they haven't ever been stable. But it's also a meaningless one if you can't convincingly show that it's this decade not "any time between 10 and 200 years from now."
  - lostcolony 4y ago
    >> Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." The only place he mentions grief (rather than "demographic change requires economic change") is at the very end, with "And any large scale shift in economic models comes with some grief, at the very least." Nowhere else. Some grief. As a footnote. That's hardly quantified, and itself could be covered simply by the fact change is hard. Japan was forced into changing, and...it went fine. The US hasn't yet. It'll require adjustment, which will probably bring some unpleasantness as we all adapt. That isn't alarmist, which was my point.
MR4D 4y ago
That’s likely to change for the worst for Japan in the next year or two, possibly as soon as this summer. They’re trying to defend their currency and interest rates at the same time. Already the Yen has taken a beating this year. They are at high risk of a huge economic shock. They’ve been able to postpone it, but just like getting out of a bad stock trade, only the first movers can do it, which means others can’t copy the Japanese strategy. Also, there are tons of specifics for Japan, such as education, economic drivers, geography and supply chains that make it unique, so it would be even harder to copy.
busterarm 4y ago
There's a distinct cost to that lack of doom. In fact, "lack of doom" depends entirely on where you live in Japan. Most of the country is somewhere on the spectrum of "moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. Smaller cities just seem to be a waypoint on that journey. Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. The average salary is just under 54k USD. People continue to work well into old age and in many ways Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus.
- diordiderot 4y ago
  > moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) > Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. That's culture and not an economic necessity. They also have a months holiday, maternity leave, and healthcare isn't 20% gdp. The French would say that Americans work a lot for little pay. > People continue to work well into old age Common in the west as well. Many countries have pushed back pension age since 2000. > Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus. Cultures changes over time. Italian culture Italian culture did not include tomato sauces or pizza not to long ago. Hell, Italy wasn't a country! France didn't have a unified language until Napoleon
  - outworlder 4y ago
    > This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) This is missing the point. It's like saying "the entire US population wants to move to Washington DC because that's where the jobs are".
- mitchdoogle 4y ago
  Interesting take. The majority of Japanese live outside of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Maybe someday that will be untrue, but I don't think it will happen for a long while. The other big cities in Japan are still strong and several of the smaller cities. Some small towns and villages have died or going that way, but plenty are doing OK. But even in those places that are dying, people take great care to preserve and prolong Japanese culture and history. It is perhaps the country most interested in its own history and culture in all the world.
Longlius 4y ago
Japan has seen an explosive growth in poverty, especially among young people.
sleightofmind 4y ago
Thank you for this observation. Low-growth or no-growth societies have long been fodder for my what-iffing daydreaming.

Aunche 4y ago

>you have to agree that in the face of declining populations and ageing demographics, we will have to shift to a new economic model where growth isn’t the only goal Who exactly is setting growth as the "only goal"? It's really only developing countries and the tech sector. Japan and basically are of Europe is more or less fine with their stagnant GDP.

more_corn 4y ago
An economy without growth will fall apart. Yuval Noah Harari said it very well. Lenders only lend because there’s faith that $1 loaned today becomes more than $1 paid back tomorrow. Without growth there’s no incentive to lend. Without lending we’re looking at medieval level economies. It’s not the only thing we care about, but it’s a necessity. That being said growth can come in all shapes and sizes. Elevating everyone out of poverty is growth. Reducing waste increases efficiency, that’s also growth. Growth is not a bad word. It’s absolutely required for positive outcomes. The potential for growth is infinite. What, you might ask, about when everyone is elevated out of poverty and waste is largely eliminated? Truly infinite requires growth even beyond that. We should be so lucky to face that problem. But the answer there is obvious as well. The resources available in the universe are effectively infinite.
- data_maan 4y ago
  But, sadly, we live on earth and have to make to with the very finite resources we have here.
  - JPKab 4y ago
    Economic growth can occur while simultaneously becoming more efficient with existing resources. See the massive gains in agriculture, for example. An acre of land today can produce vastly more food than an acre could 500 years ago, for example.
    - vkou 4y ago
      And what happens when an acre in year 2XYZ + 500 no longer produces more food than an acre in year 2XYZ?

xt00 4y ago

One major differentiator between the US and China is that China traditionally / currently is not considered a good destination for foreigners / immigrants. (even Chinese people inside China from lower tier cities / countryside struggle to gain residency in top tier cities or get good jobs / benefits). Whereas the US, for all of its flailing around politically, is perceived by many people in many countries as a good place to move. So immigration is a major leverage point the US can / should use to keep the economic engine going. A working age person coming to the US and working hard is basically one of the best case scenarios -- the US tax-base did almost nothing then suddenly you have a new productive person. Contrary to tons of rhetoric, unless you have a failing business, virtually all people at your company will maintain employment if their production is more valuable than what you pay them -- so they end up being a net gain. And last time I checked, not many people come from another country with furniture, a house, a car, etc.. (so they both produce for some company, and consume likely at much higher levels than say boomers who already own virtually everything they need). So, hopefully the US doesn't lose its "mindshare" leadership around being a good destination for immigrants, because in the next 50 years we will see more and more battles for bringing immigrants to your country to make up for the low birth rates.

quickthrower2 4y ago
I don’t think the US is easy to emigrate to for extended periods of time. I am put off by being tied to one employer in an at-will employment culture and needing that job to stay resident. Wikipedia says 188,100 new and initial H-1B visas were issued in 2019. So not a lot.
- avrionov 4y ago
  USA also has the Green Card Lottery which provides 50k visas per year.
  - quickthrower2 4y ago
    Each 100k is 0.03% of the US population. So it is not much.

boomchinolo78 4y ago

The new economic model will be some sort of feudalism, we are starting to see it already.

JackMorgan 4y ago
Could you explain this idea further? What's economic feudalism look like?
- tenebrisalietum 4y ago
  Fiefdom versus fiefdom. You either lead a fief or are serf working for one to survive. If you are a serf, a) your fiefdom may switch ownership due to a defeat in a conflict or political dealings of the nobility; but life never change for you too much and b) you're a serf forever.

BeetleB 4y ago

You didn't address anything in the comment you responded to.

worik 4y ago

It is a tautology that "grow at all costs" is not a sustainable economic order. It has been apparent since at least the 1970s that the limits to the growth phase of industrialisation is looming. It has been blindingly obvious for twenty years that we urgently need to change our economies to not require growth to maintain development. This is not new. It has been shouted from the roof tops for decades. Not shifting economic models will produce much more grief than shifting.

philwelch 4y ago
“We should content ourselves with being poorer than our parents were”. Fuck no.
- marssaxman 4y ago
  Your bravado is charming, but since when is it up to you?
  - philwelch 4y ago
    I always get to choose whether or not to be content.
    - marssaxman 4y ago
      I suppose that makes sense. I must admit that there are aspects of the world I live in which I refuse to feel content about, even though there is nothing I can do about them.
- momojo 4y ago
  What about "We should be content with not being as wealthy as our parents"?
  - philwelch 4y ago
    That’s just a rephrasing of what I said to make it sound less bad. Also, fuck no.

bamboozled 4y ago

Not sure if you’ve been to Japan within the last twenty years but it’s neither advanced or highly automated. People do everything. Edit Anyone down voting please supply some practical examples of how Japan is advanced and highly automated. Also it wasn't meant as a criticism of Japan, I love the place. I just believe that the stereotype of Japan being in the future isn't accurate or helpful. It's overused.

bamboozled 4y ago
...just as I thought...

pyuser583 4y ago

Japan hasn’t seen any economic growth since the early 2000s? Please give me a source … I find that hard to believe.

ajmurmann 4y ago
Random Google: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263578/gross-domestic-product-gdp-of-japan/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263578/gross-domestic-pr...

the_omegist 4y ago

Japan's workers productivity rates are known to be pretty average/bad and about growth, I don't think the issue is the aging population (as you said there is automation) but rather finite resources.