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The concept of speculation run rampant that then everybody sees the truth and runs hard the other way in the marketplace is a myth. The idea that the best weigh

The concept of speculation run rampant that then everybody sees the truth and runs hard the other way in the marketplace is a myth. The idea that the best weighing machine ever devised is so far off for so long and then just magically turns around on a dime - that so many smart investors we all deluded - that is a crackpot idea. This is usually pushed by someone with an opposing view (who strangely enough didn't have the conviction to bet the other way) and is just a roundabout way of them patting themselves on the back for finally realizing what he could see so clearly from beginning (and still hasn't make money on the reversal). Something happened to push this hard. We might not know what it is for a generation, but there is a logical reason. Constantly reducing a supply to allow pressure from the value it gets from demand makes it highly volatile (prices are intersection of the value of the currency and value of the item - and BTC's deflationary stance basically starts adding 0s to the front of the price 0.1 goes to 0.01 and now currency and demand swings are 10x greater). constant large swings make it a shitty currency - so over time is will fail. Now, if only these other cryptofxs can get their shit together and shot with the constantly deflating things - yes it make the knownothings come running for a piece, but overall it will fail. Please no Keynes quotes about irrationality. It is something he pulled out of his ass that isn't provable or disprovable. It makes a great soundbite and a terrible argument.

ldjkfkdsjnv 4y ago
Theres no secret about what happened. The government printed money and it caused worthless assets to sky rocket. Then they pulled the money away. Thats it. Theres nothing here.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  This is somewhat reductionist. Yes, some "worthless" assets were inflated such as crypto. But so were "real" (or rather, those with a cashflow or some sort of tangible underlying value) assets like real estate, equities, etc. It seems straightforward that crypto is suffering from flight to safer assets and fear around the expected recessionary pressures, as well as no greater fools due to a combination of rising rates and broad sentiment.
- imtringued 4y ago
  That would imply that we have been in a liquidity trap all along and it is only now that interest rates have changed that more and more people are getting out of the asset markets to speculate on higher interest rates.
cowtools 4y ago
>that so many smart investors we all deluded To be fair, there are a lot of less-than-smart investors. >BTC's deflationary stance BTC's "stance" is irrational and will eventually lead to the breakdown of the bitcoin network due to selfish mining https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CCS.pdf https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CC...
throwaway2048 4y ago
Considering how many multi billion dollar corporations, investments and entire market sectors have been blown out by easily proven, easily deduced fraud that somehow ends up lasting years, or even decades before blowing up, I place less faith in "the best weighing machine ever devised" than you I think.

ldjkfkdsjnv 4y ago

Theres no secret about what happened. The government printed money and it caused worthless assets to sky rocket. Then they pulled the money away. Thats it. Theres nothing here.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
This is somewhat reductionist. Yes, some "worthless" assets were inflated such as crypto. But so were "real" (or rather, those with a cashflow or some sort of tangible underlying value) assets like real estate, equities, etc. It seems straightforward that crypto is suffering from flight to safer assets and fear around the expected recessionary pressures, as well as no greater fools due to a combination of rising rates and broad sentiment.
imtringued 4y ago
That would imply that we have been in a liquidity trap all along and it is only now that interest rates have changed that more and more people are getting out of the asset markets to speculate on higher interest rates.

cowtools 4y ago

>that so many smart investors we all deluded To be fair, there are a lot of less-than-smart investors. >BTC's deflationary stance BTC's "stance" is irrational and will eventually lead to the breakdown of the bitcoin network due to selfish mining https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CCS.pdf https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CC...

throwaway2048 4y ago

Considering how many multi billion dollar corporations, investments and entire market sectors have been blown out by easily proven, easily deduced fraud that somehow ends up lasting years, or even decades before blowing up, I place less faith in "the best weighing machine ever devised" than you I think.